Stock Price & Analysis

Based on the recent data and market analysis, here's a comprehensive assessment of UPS stock:

Technical Analysis

The stock is currently trading at $129.73, showing bearish momentum with RSI at 57.61, indicating neutral territory. The stock is trading above its 20-day moving average of $125.65, suggesting some short-term strength.

Recent Developments A significant development is the non-renewal of UPS's contract with USPS for SurePost final-mile delivery. While this change allows UPS to handle deliveries internally with potential faster service, it also brings near-term uncertainty regarding volume transitions and operational adjustments.

Financial Outlook

• 2024 Projections: Revenue expected at $91.1 billion with adjusted operating margin of 9.6%
• 2025 Forecasts:
  • Revenue growth: +4%
  • EPS growth: +17%

Analyst Sentiment

Recent analyst actions show mixed sentiment:

• BofA Securities upgraded to Buy with $150 target
• JPMorgan maintains Neutral with $135 target
• Wells Fargo maintains Buy with $150 target

Key Positives

1. Attractive valuation at 14x forward earnings
2. High dividend yield of 5.2%
3. Cost reduction initiatives through 12,000 employee layoffs
4. Potential benefits from cooling inflation

Key Risks

1. Volume transition challenges from USPS contract expiration
2. Competitive pressure from FedEx
3. Higher labor costs from new Teamsters contract
4. Economic uncertainty impact on shipping volumes

Recommendation SELL. Despite recent upgrades, the combination of operational uncertainties from the USPS contract transition, higher labor costs, and potential volume pressures make UPS a risky investment at current levels. The stock might face near-term headwinds as it adjusts to these changes.

Based on the provided data and market analysis, here's the price prediction for UPS stock in 2025:

UPS stock is expected to reach $147-150 by end of 2025, representing about 15% upside from current levels around $129, driven by improving profit margins and operational efficiency after the new union contract costs are fully absorbed. The company's strategic shift toward higher-margin deliveries and cost optimization initiatives through automation and workforce adjustments should help restore operating margins from current ~10% toward their 12% target.

A key risk factor is the recent loss of the USPS SurePost contract, though UPS plans to handle these deliveries internally which could potentially result in faster service. While this transition creates some near-term revenue uncertainty, analysts maintain a moderate buy consensus with an average price target of $147.83, implying 13.8% upside potential.

The stock is currently trading at an attractive 14.3x forward earnings multiple, below its historical average, providing a reasonable entry point for long-term investors. The company's investments in logistics technologies and automation, combined with an expected rebound in business-to-business volumes as interest rates decline, support the bullish outlook for 2025.

The S1 support level for UPS Stock is $123.55 ,The R1 resistant level for UPS Stock is $132.98.

As of the end of day on 2025-01-24, the price of UPS Stock was $132.89.

The target price for UPS Stock according to analyst rating is 147.83, with the highest price target at 179.00 and the lowest at 100.00. Analysts have a Moderate Buy rating on UPS Stock overall.

The market cap of UPS is $113.5B.

Based on the provided data and recent analyst updates, here's a comprehensive analysis of whether UPS is overvalued:

Valuation Analysis: UPS currently trades at a P/E of 20.6x (Q3 2024), which is above its historical average, while its EV/EBITDA of 11.07x suggests a more reasonable valuation compared to industry peers.

Financial Performance: The company's net income has shown sequential improvement from $1.11B in Q1 2024 to $1.54B in Q3 2024, demonstrating operational efficiency despite market challenges.

Market Position: Recent loss of the USPS SurePost contract will impact revenue, but UPS is offsetting this by internalizing deliveries and implementing cost reduction initiatives through laying off 12,000 employees.

Growth Outlook: Analysts project flat revenue for 2024 with a 15% EPS decline, followed by 4% revenue growth and 17% EPS growth in 2025 as macro conditions improve and initial union contract costs are absorbed.

Conclusion: At current levels, UPS is fairly valued considering its market position, improving financials, and growth prospects for 2025.

United Parcel Service, Inc. is a package delivery company and a provider of global supply chain management solutions. Its segments include U.S. Domestic Package and International Package. Its U.S. Domestic Package and International Package are together referred to as its global small package operations. Its global small package operations provide time-definite delivery services for express letters, documents, packages and palletized freight via air and ground services. The U.S. Domestic Package segment offers small package delivery services in the United States and offers a spectrum of the United States domestic guaranteed air and ground package transportation services. The International Package segment consists of its small package operations in Europe, the Indian subcontinent, Middle East and Africa (together EMEA), Canada and Latin America (together Americas) and Asia. Its Supply Chain Solutions consists of its forwarding, logistics, digital and other businesses.

Based on the provided data and analysis, here is a price prediction for UPS stock by 2030:

UPS stock is projected to reach approximately $185-190 by 2030, driven by the company's strategic shift towards automation, cost optimization initiatives, and recovery in package delivery volumes. The company's recent contract expiration with USPS for SurePost deliveries and transition to handling deliveries internally could improve service efficiency and margins over the long term. Analysts maintain a moderate buy consensus with current price targets around $148, suggesting steady but measured growth potential over the next 5-7 years.

UPS has a total of 500000 employees.