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UPS Earning Date, Transcript Summary & Report

United Parcel Service Inc
$
99.810
-1.400(-1.380%)

UPS Earnings Prediction

The chart below shows how UPS performed 10 days before and after its earnings report, based on data from the past quarters. Typically, UPS sees a +4.29% change in stock price 10 days leading up to the earnings, and a -0.95% change 10 days following the report. On the earnings day itself, the stock moves by -3.92%. This data can give you a slight idea of what to expect for the next quarter's release.

UPS Key Earning Data

2024/Q4
Year Over Year
Quarter Over Quarter
Total Revenue
21.55B
-0.74%
-14.84%
Gross Margin
78.19%
2.84%
1.06%
Operating Margin
8.18%
1.61%
-33.22%
Net Margin
5.51%
7.41%
-18.97%
EPS
1.40
7.69%
-30.35%
No Data Available

UPS Earnings Analysis

United Parcel Service Inc Corporation (UPS.N) Earnings Conference Call

Positive

  • Q1 Revenue and Profit Growth: In the first quarter, UPS reported consolidated revenue of $21.5 billion, with an operating profit of $1.8 billion, marking a 0.9% increase year-over-year.

  • Operating Profit Increase: The U.S. Domestic segment saw an increase in operating profit by $164 million year-over-year, with an operating margin expansion of 110 basis points.

  • Earnings Per Share Increase: Diluted earnings per share increased by 4.2% to $1.49, slightly ahead of expectations.

  • U.S. Outbound Volume Growth: International segment U.S. outbound volume increased by 9.5% in the first quarter, demonstrating strong demand for U.S. inbound services.

  • Profitability and Efficiency Enhancement: UPS's strategic actions, including the glide down of Amazon's volume, are expected to enhance profitability and operational efficiency.

  • Network Reconfiguration Impact: The company is executing the largest network reconfiguration in its history, which is anticipated to improve structural operating margins and return on invested capital.

  • SMB Customer Volume Growth: UPS's SMB customers made up 31.2% of total U.S. volume, the highest concentration in ten years, indicating a positive trend in revenue quality.

  • Healthcare Logistics Expansion: The acquisition of Ann Lower Healthcare Group is expected to bolster UPS's healthcare capabilities in Canada, supporting its goal of becoming a leading complex healthcare logistics provider.

  • Efficiency Reimagined Initiative: UPS's efficiency reimagined initiative aims to deliver $1 billion in savings by improving business processes and eliminating manual tasks, with benefits expected to accelerate in the second quarter.

  • Strong Cash Generation: The company generated $2.3 billion in cash from operations in the first quarter, with $1.5 billion in free cash flow, demonstrating strong cash generation capabilities.

Negative

  • Revenue Decline Analysis: Consolidated revenue decreased by 0.7% year-over-year, indicating a slight decline in overall business performance.

  • U.S. Domestic Volume Decline: U.S. Domestic average daily volume (ADV) was down 3.5%, with ground ADV decreasing by 2.5% and air ADV down by 9.6%, reflecting a drop in demand.

  • U.S. ADV Decline Analysis: The decline in U.S. ADV for February and March was higher than expected due to uncertainty surrounding global trade policies, leading to muted demand from enterprise and SMB customers.

  • International Segment Profit Decline: The international segment's operating profit decreased by 4.1% year-over-year, attributed to a mix shift to more economy services and lower demand-related surcharges.

  • Supply Chain Revenue Decline: Supply Chain Solutions revenue decreased by $471 million, primarily due to the divestiture of Coyote, indicating a loss of revenue from a significant business unit.

  • Supply Chain Margin Decline: Operating margin in the Supply Chain Solutions segment declined by 320 basis points, primarily driven by cost pressure in the Mail Innovations business due to new USPS rates.

  • Trade Policy Uncertainty: The company is facing uncertainty regarding tariffs and trade policies, which could impact consumer demand and business performance moving forward.

  • Projected Revenue Decline: The second quarter guidance indicates a projected 9% decline in U.S. ADV and low single-digit revenue decline compared to last year, suggesting continued challenges ahead.

  • Cautious Outlook Update: The company is not providing updates to its full-year outlook due to the high level of uncertainty in the macro environment, indicating a cautious approach to future projections.

Key Financial Performance iconKey Financial Performance
Operating Highlights iconOperating Highlights
Risks or Challenges iconRisks or Challenges
Strategic Initiatives & Outlook iconStrategic Initiatives & Outlook
Shareholder Return Plan iconShareholder Return Plan

UPS FAQs

How does UPS typically perform around its earnings report dates?

UPS's stock performance around earnings reports can vary, but historical data shows specific patterns, such as a +4.29% change leading up to the report and a -0.95% change in the 10 days following the release.

Is United Parcel Service Inc (UPS) Q1 2025 Earnings Call Summary positive or negative?

How can historical earnings data help predict future stock performance?

UPS Earnings Deck

Earnings call transcript: UPS Q1 2025 beats EPS forecast, stock dips

UPS Earning Call Sentiment

Earnings call transcript: UPS Q1 2025 beats EPS forecast, stock dips

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UPS.N

-1.38%
Positive
The earnings call presents a mixed picture: while there are positive aspects like increased dividends and share repurchases, cost reduction targets, and a slight increase in operating profit and EPS, there are notable concerns. These include a decline in total revenue, volume decreases, and international operating profit drop. The Q&A highlighted uncertainties, particularly around tariffs and Amazon volume decline, which management was vague about. Given these factors, the stock price is likely to remain stable, leading to a neutral prediction for the next two weeks.