The chart below shows how DE performed 10 days before and after its earnings report, based on data from the past quarters. Typically, DE sees a -0.31% change in stock price 10 days leading up to the earnings, and a +0.83% change 10 days following the report. On the earnings day itself, the stock moves by +0.45%. This data can give you a slight idea of what to expect for the next quarter's release.
Positive
Q4 Operating Performance Improvement: Q4 twenty twenty four operating performance was slightly stronger than Q4 twenty twenty three, which was previously the strongest Q4 performance to date.
Sales Growth Analysis: Consolidated sales in Q4 twenty twenty four were 5% higher than Q4 twenty twenty three and 17% higher than Q3 twenty twenty four, indicating strong growth.
EBITDA Growth Analysis: Adjusted EBITDA in Q4 twenty twenty four was 2% higher than in Q4 twenty twenty three and 30% higher than in Q3 twenty twenty four, showcasing improved profitability.
Industrial Products Improvement: The industrial products businesses, particularly Northside and Slimline’s Evaporators, drove the improvement in Q4 twenty twenty four results.
Free Cash Flow Growth: Free cash flow less maintenance capital expenditures increased by 8% compared to Q4 twenty twenty three and 50% relative to Q3 twenty twenty four, demonstrating strong cash generation capabilities.
Operational Momentum Outlook: The company expects operational momentum to continue into Q1 twenty twenty five, with order levels outpacing both 2023 and 2024 levels.
Acquisition Growth Potential: Decisive has a strong acquisition pipeline and plans to pursue additional acquisitions in 2025, indicating growth potential.
New Product Launch Impact: New product launches in 2025, including seven new products in the hearth business, are expected to positively impact performance in the second half of twenty twenty five.
Negative
Tariff Uncertainty Impact: Significant uncertainty surrounding U.S. tariffs on Canadian goods, which could impact 48% of 2024 sales.
Hearth Business Sales Decline: Hearth businesses, specifically Blazeging and ACR, contributed less in Q4 2024 than in Q4 2023, with sales declines limited to 27% despite entering Q4 2024 with 89% lower backlogs than in Q4 2023.
High Payout Ratio Concerns: The company’s payout ratio remained high at 96% for the full year, indicating potential challenges in maintaining dividend levels amidst operational volatility.
Stock Price Concerns: Concerns about the stock price not reflecting improved operating results, which could hinder acquisition strategies and increase the cost of capital.
Macroeconomic Uncertainties Impacting Stock: The company is facing macroeconomic uncertainties that are putting downward pressure on its stock price, affecting investor sentiment and potential capital for acquisitions.