UPS Valuation

United Parcel Service Inc

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94.090

-2.33(-2.417%)1D

UPS Relative Valuation

UPS's fair value is calculated using relative valuation, based on historical P/E and P/S ranges and their premiums/discounts relative to a competitor average, adjusted by weights. If the market price exceeds this fair value range, UPS is overvalued; if below, it's undervalued.

Historical Valuation

United Parcel Service Inc (UPS) is now in the Undervalued zone, suggesting that its current forward PE ratio of 14.06 is considered Undervalued compared with the five-year average of 16.37. The fair price of United Parcel Service Inc (UPS) is between 124.94 to 150.76 according to relative valuation methord. Compared to the current price of 94.09 USD , United Parcel Service Inc is Undervalued By 24.69%.

Relative Value

Fair Zone

124.94-150.76

Current Price：94.09

24.69%

Undervalued

14.06

Trailing

Forward

8.52

EV/EBITDA

United Parcel Service Inc. (UPS) has a current EV/EBITDA of 8.52. The 5-year average EV/EBITDA is 10.93. The thresholds are as follows: Strongly Undervalued below 7.80, Undervalued between 7.80 and 9.37, Fairly Valued between 12.50 and 9.37, Overvalued between 12.50 and 14.06, and Strongly Overvalued above 14.06. The current Forward EV/EBITDA of 8.52 falls within the Undervalued range.

12.28

EV/EBIT

United Parcel Service Inc. (UPS) has a current EV/EBIT of 12.28. The 5-year average EV/EBIT is 14.23. The thresholds are as follows: Strongly Undervalued below 10.33, Undervalued between 10.33 and 12.28, Fairly Valued between 16.18 and 12.28, Overvalued between 16.18 and 18.13, and Strongly Overvalued above 18.13. The current Forward EV/EBIT of 12.28 falls within the Historic Trend Line -Fairly Valued range.

96.42

United Parcel Service Inc. (UPS) has a current PS of 96.42. The 5-year average PS is 1.69. The thresholds are as follows: Strongly Undervalued below -7.64, Undervalued between -7.64 and -2.97, Fairly Valued between 6.36 and -2.97, Overvalued between 6.36 and 11.03, and Strongly Overvalued above 11.03. The current Forward PS of 96.42 falls within the Strongly Overvalued range.

9.35

P/OCF

United Parcel Service Inc. (UPS) has a current P/OCF of 9.35. The 5-year average P/OCF is 11.42. The thresholds are as follows: Strongly Undervalued below 8.08, Undervalued between 8.08 and 9.75, Fairly Valued between 13.09 and 9.75, Overvalued between 13.09 and 14.76, and Strongly Overvalued above 14.76. The current Forward P/OCF of 9.35 falls within the Undervalued range.

15.55

P/FCF

United Parcel Service Inc. (UPS) has a current P/FCF of 15.55. The 5-year average P/FCF is 19.17. The thresholds are as follows: Strongly Undervalued below 6.59, Undervalued between 6.59 and 12.88, Fairly Valued between 25.46 and 12.88, Overvalued between 25.46 and 31.75, and Strongly Overvalued above 31.75. The current Forward P/FCF of 15.55 falls within the Historic Trend Line -Fairly Valued range.

United Parcel Service Inc (UPS) has a current Price-to-Book (P/B) ratio of 5.17. Compared to its 3-year average P/B ratio of 6.79 , the current P/B ratio is approximately -23.88% higher. Relative to its 5-year average P/B ratio of 19.92, the current P/B ratio is about -74.06% higher. United Parcel Service Inc (UPS) has a Forward Free Cash Flow (FCF) yield of approximately 5.38%. Compared to its 3-year average FCF yield of 4.92%, the current FCF yield is approximately 9.36% lower. Relative to its 5-year average FCF yield of 5.06% , the current FCF yield is about 6.28% lower.

5.17

P/B

Median3y

6.79

Median5y

19.92

5.38

FCF Yield

Median3y

4.92

Median5y

5.06

Competitors Valuation Multiple

The average P/S ratio for UPS's competitors is 149.49, providing a benchmark for relative valuation. United Parcel Service Inc Corp (UPS) exhibits a P/S ratio of 96.42, which is -35.50% above the industry average. Given its robust revenue growth of -3.73%, this premium appears unsustainable.

P/S

P/E

EV/EBITDA

EV/EBIT

P/S

Revenue Growth

Market Cap

UPS.N

United Parcel Service Inc

ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc

CH Robinson Worldwide Inc

153.99

-93.15%

17.97B

Performance Decomposition

Market capitalization of UPS decreased by 30.67% over the past 1 year. The primary factor behind the change was an decrease in Revenue Growth from 22.25B to 21.42B.

The secondary factor is the Margin Expansion, contributed -11.56%to the performance.

Overall, the performance of UPS in the past 1 year is driven by Revenue Growth. Which is more sustainable.

-3.73%

22.25B → 21.42B

Revenue Growth

-11.56%

6.92 → 6.12

Margin Expansion

-15.38%

17.60 → 14.90

P/E Change

-30.67%