Should I Buy UPS? UPS 2026 Analysis

Should You Buy United Parcel Service Inc (UPS) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Conclusion

Buy

Latest Price

103.700

1 Day change

-3.26%

52 Week Range

136.580

Analysis Updated At

2026/01/26

United Parcel Service Inc (UPS) is a good buy for a beginner investor with a long-term focus and $50,000-$100,000 available for investment. The stock shows positive technical indicators, improving sentiment among hedge funds and insiders, and a favorable analyst outlook. Despite short-term revenue and income declines, the company is focusing on profitability, and its gross margin has improved. The upcoming earnings report on January 27, 2026, could serve as a potential catalyst for further gains.

Technical Analysis

The technical indicators for UPS are positive. The MACD is above 0 and positively contracting, indicating bullish momentum. RSI is neutral at 57.685, and moving averages are bullish (SMA_5 > SMA_20 > SMA_200). The stock is trading near its pivot level of 107.66, with resistance at 109.528 and support at 105.792, suggesting limited downside risk in the short term.

Options Data

Bullish

Open Interest Put-Call Ratio

Neutral

Option Volume Put-Call Ratio

The options data indicates a balanced sentiment with a slight bullish tilt, as the open interest put-call ratio is low at 0.65, and the option volume put-call ratio is near parity at 0.97.

Technical Summary

Sell

Buy

Positive Catalysts

Hedge funds and insiders are significantly increasing their positions in UPS. Hedge fund buying increased by 3861.21%, and insider buying rose by 141.61% over the last quarter and month, respectively.
Analysts have raised price targets, with the majority maintaining Buy or Outperform ratings.
The company is focusing on more profitable customers, which has driven a 24% stock price increase despite revenue declines.
Gross margin improved by 4.23% YoY to 79.17%.

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

Revenue and net income declined YoY in Q3 2025, with revenue down 3.73% and net income down 14.81%.
EPS dropped 13.89% YoY, reflecting short-term profitability pressures.
Wolfe Research downgraded the stock to Peer Perform, citing valuation concerns.

Financial Performance

In Q3 2025, UPS reported revenue of $21.4 billion, down 3.73% YoY. Net income dropped to $1.31 billion, down 14.81% YoY, and EPS fell to $1.55, a 13.89% decline. However, gross margin improved to 79.17%, up 4.23% YoY, indicating better cost management.

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

Analysts are generally optimistic about UPS. Recent upgrades include BofA moving from Underperform to Neutral with a price target of $114, and Citi raising the price target to $126 with a Buy rating. Bernstein also raised its target to $125, citing improved margins and overstated dividend risks. Wolfe Research downgraded the stock to Peer Perform, citing valuation concerns, but this appears to be an outlier.

19 Analyst Rating

Wall Street analysts forecast UPS stock price to fall over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for UPS is 107.06 USD with a low forecast of 80 USD and a high forecast of 126 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

9 Buy

9 Hold

1 Sell

Moderate Buy

Current: 107.200

Low

Averages

107.06

High

126

Current: 107.200

Low

Averages

107.06

High

126

Wells Fargo

Equal Weight

maintain

$96 -> $110

AI Analysis

2026-01-28

New

Reason

Wells Fargo

Price Target

$96 -> $110

AI Analysis

2026-01-28

New

maintain

Equal Weight

Reason

Wells Fargo raised the firm's price target on UPS to $110 from $96 and keeps an Equal Weight rating on the shares. Coming off its callback estimates tick higher, but the firm remains modestly below consensus for 2026. Wells notes 2026 is second half weighted, with meaningful Q1 pressure. The firm sees a path to improving trends in the second half of the year given solid underlying fundamentals, but execution risk remains.

Citi

Ariel Rosa

Buy

downgrade

$126 -> $120

2026-01-28

New

Reason

Citi

Ariel Rosa

Price Target

$126 -> $120

2026-01-28

New

downgrade

Buy

Reason

Citi analyst Ariel Rosa lowered the firm's price target on UPS to $120 from $126 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares following the Q4 report. The firm says the company's 2026 outlook "raises questions."

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UPS Should I Buy

UPS Should I Buy

Should You Buy United Parcel Service Inc (UPS) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Technical Analysis

Options Data

Technical Summary

Positive Catalysts

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

Financial Performance

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

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