Based on the provided data and current market context, here's my analysis of whether MO is overvalued:
Altria (MO) currently trades at a forward P/E ratio of 10.04x with a dividend yield of 7.66%, suggesting reasonable valuation metrics for a mature tobacco company.
The stock has surged nearly 33% over the past 12 months, outperforming the S&P 500's 23.3% gain.
Management's 2025 guidance of 2-5% EPS growth ($5.22-$5.37) came in slightly below analyst expectations of $5.35, indicating potential growth challenges.
The company faces significant headwinds from declining cigarette volumes (-8.8% in Q4 2024) and setbacks in its smoke-free product goals due to competition from illegal vaping products.
Despite these challenges, MO maintains strong pricing power and generates substantial cash flow to support its high dividend, suggesting the stock is fairly valued rather than overvalued at current levels.