Based on the provided data and current market context, here's my analysis of JPM stock:
Technical Analysis
JPM is currently trading at $259.83, showing strong momentum with a +1.92% gain in the last session. The stock has demonstrated robust performance, rising about 41% YTD in 2024.
Fundamental Analysis
The stock is trading at a price-to-tangible-book ratio of 2.5x, which is significantly higher than its peer average of 1.9x and its own historical 10-year average of around 2x. This suggests the stock is currently trading at premium valuations.
Recent Performance & Catalysts
Q4 2024 results were strong:
- Net Income: $14 billion (+12% YoY)
- EPS: $4.81 (up from $4.29)
- Revenue: $43.7 billion (+10% YoY)
- CET1 Ratio: 15.7% (+40 bps QoQ)
- ROTCE: 21% for Q4, 20% for full year
Analyst Sentiment
Recent analyst actions show mixed but generally positive sentiment:
- Barclays: Buy rating, PT raised to $330 (+29.78% upside)
- UBS: Strong Buy rating, PT $287 (+12.87% upside)
- Truist Securities: Hold rating, PT $268 (+5.4% upside)
Sell Recommendation
While JPM remains a high-quality franchise with strong fundamentals, I recommend SELLING at current levels for the following reasons:
- Rich Valuation: Trading at record high P/TBV multiple of 2.5x
- CEO Jamie Dimon's own warning about not buying back stock at these levels
- Expected NII decline in 2025 to below $87 billion from $92.5 billion in 2024
- Higher expenses expected in 2025 due to technology investments