Stock Price & Analysis

Based on the provided data and recent market developments, here's a concise analysis for MRK:

Technical Analysis

• Current price: $89.35
• Stock has declined significantly (~34% in 1 year)
• RSI at 45.28 indicates neutral territory, not oversold yet
• MACD showing slight positive momentum with 0.08 histogram

Fundamental Factors

• Recent downgrade by Deutsche Bank to Hold with PT lowered to $105 from $128
• Key concern: Keytruda's loss of exclusivity in 2028
• Gardasil facing challenges in China with paused shipments through mid-2025

Growth & Outlook

• Q4 2024 Results:
  • Revenue: $15.6B (+7% Y/Y)
  • Keytruda sales: $7.8B (+19% Y/Y)
  • Gardasil sales: $1.55B (-17% Y/Y)
• 2025 Guidance below expectations:
  • Revenue: $64.1B-$65.6B
  • Adjusted EPS: $8.88-$9.03

Sell Recommendation The stock faces significant near-term headwinds:

• China market challenges affecting Gardasil sales
• Upcoming Keytruda patent cliff in 2028
• Below-consensus 2025 guidance
• Technical indicators showing weakness

Current price levels suggest further downside potential before reaching strong support. Investors should consider exiting positions or implementing protective strategies.

Based on the provided data and recent market analysis, here's the price prediction for MRK stock in 2025:

Merck's stock is projected to reach $125.95 by end of 2025, representing a 26.2% upside from current levels. This forecast is supported by strong fundamentals and analyst consensus, despite recent challenges. The company's weak 2025 guidance ($8.88-$9.03 EPS) has created a temporary pullback, making current price levels ($91.44) an attractive entry point for long-term investors.

The primary growth driver remains Keytruda's continued market expansion, which saw 19% year-over-year growth to $7.84 billion in Q4 2024. However, investors should note potential headwinds from Gardasil's declining demand in China and increased competition in the diabetes segment.

The S1 support level for MRK Stock is $82.39 ,The R1 resistant level for MRK Stock is $91.57.

As of the end of day on 2025-02-26, the price of MRK Stock was $91.21.

The target price for MRK Stock according to analyst rating is 114.12, with the highest price target at 138.00 and the lowest at 95.00. Analysts have a Moderate Buy rating on MRK Stock overall.

The market cap of MRK is $231.3B.

Based on the provided data and recent market analysis, here's a direct assessment of MRK's valuation:

MRK is currently undervalued considering its strong fundamentals and market position. The stock's current P/E ratio of 12.1x is significantly below its historical average of 14x, suggesting an attractive entry point. Recent weakness in the stock price (-34% decline over one year) has been primarily driven by temporary Gardasil challenges in China rather than fundamental business deterioration. The company's core oncology franchise Keytruda continues to show robust growth with a 19% year-over-year increase.

The technical indicators show MRK is currently trading near its support level with RSI at 45.28, suggesting the stock is neither overbought nor oversold. The stock's current price of $89.35 is well below both its 200-day SMA ($110.43) and 60-day SMA ($96.78), indicating potential room for upside recovery.

The company's 2025 guidance of $8.88-$9.03 EPS, while below analyst expectations, still represents healthy growth from 2024's $7.65. With a strong product pipeline and strategic acquisitions, MRK maintains solid growth prospects despite near-term headwinds.

Merck & Co., Inc. is a global health care company. It offers health solutions through its prescription medicines, including biologic therapies, vaccines and animal health products. The Company’s Pharmaceutical segment includes human health pharmaceuticals and vaccine products. Human health pharmaceutical products consist of therapeutic and preventive agents, generally sold by prescription, for the treatment of human disorders. It sells these human health pharmaceutical products to drug wholesalers and retailers, hospitals, government agencies and managed health care providers. Its Animal Health segment discovers, develops, manufactures and markets a range of veterinary pharmaceutical and vaccine products, and health management solutions and services, for the prevention, treatment and control of disease in all livestock and companion animal species. The Company’s lead candidate, MK-6070, is a T-cell engager targeting delta-like ligand 3 (DLL3), an inhibitory canonical Notch ligand.

Based on the provided data and context, I'll analyze MRK's stock price prediction for 2030.

Price Analysis and Projections:

Current Market Position:

• Current price: $89.50 (as of Feb 21, 2025)
• YTD performance: -10%
• Recent trend shows consolidation after a significant decline from previous highs

2030 Price Target Analysis: According to multiple sources and analysis:

1. Base Case: $149.48

• Key drivers:
  • Continued growth in oncology portfolio
  • Strong performance in vaccines segment
  • Pipeline developments and potential new drug approvals

2. Risk Factors to Consider:

• Keytruda patent expiration in 2028
• Gardasil market exclusivity ending in 2028
• Increasing competition in key therapeutic areas

Growth Catalysts:

• Strong market position in oncology with Keytruda ($25 billion in 2023 sales)
• Robust vaccine portfolio led by Gardasil ($9 billion in 2023)
• Strategic acquisitions and pipeline development

Price Target Reasoning: The projected price of $149.48 by 2030 represents approximately a 67% increase from current levels, which translates to an average annual growth rate of around 13.4%. This target considers both growth opportunities and challenges, particularly the patent cliff for key products in 2028.

MRK has a total of 72000 employees.