Stock Price & Analysis

Based on the provided data and recent market analysis, here's a direct assessment of COST stock:

Technical Analysis

• COST is showing strong upward momentum with RSI at 57.49, indicating balanced but slightly bullish conditions
• The stock is trading above all major moving averages (SMA 5, 10, 20, 60, 200), confirming a strong uptrend
• Recent price action shows consolidation near all-time highs around $1,035 level

Fundamental Strengths

• Strong January 2025 performance with net sales up 9.2% year-over-year
• E-commerce sales grew 15.2%, showing successful digital transformation
• High membership renewal rates of 93% in U.S. and 90% globally despite recent price increases

Risk Factors

• Trading at historically high P/E ratio of 58, significantly above industry peers
• Potential trade tariff impacts could affect supply chain and costs
• Current valuation may limit near-term upside potential

Conclusion: SELL The current valuation appears stretched despite strong business fundamentals. While Costco remains an excellent company with solid growth, the risk-reward ratio at current price levels suggests taking profits. The stock's premium valuation compared to peers like Walmart and Amazon (trading at P/E of 37) indicates limited upside potential.

Based on the provided data and market analysis, here is a detailed price prediction for Costco (COST) stock in 2025:

Technical Analysis

Current Market Position

• Current price: $1034.95 (as of Feb 21, 2025)
• Trading near all-time highs with strong momentum
• RSI at 57.49 indicates moderate buying pressure without being overbought
• MACD shows positive trend with slight divergence

Fundamental Drivers

• Strong revenue growth of 7.53% YoY
• Impressive net margin of 2.89%
• Membership renewal rate remains high at 90.4%
• Planning to open 20 new warehouses in remainder of fiscal 2025

Price Target 2025: $1175 The stock is expected to reach $1175 by end of 2025, representing a ~13.5% upside from current levels. This target is supported by:

1. Analysts' consensus high price target of $1175
2. Strong e-commerce growth of 17.1% YoY outpacing overall revenue growth
3. Continued international expansion providing new growth avenues

The prediction is based on Costco's proven business model, consistent execution, and ability to maintain high membership renewal rates despite recent price increases. However, the high P/E ratio of 58x presents some valuation risk that could limit upside potential.

The S1 support level for COST Stock is $1032.24 ,The R1 resistant level for COST Stock is $1073.16.

As of the end of day on 2025-02-26, the price of COST Stock was $1053.71.

The target price for COST Stock according to analyst rating is 1,084, with the highest price target at 1,200 and the lowest at 907.00. Analysts have a Moderate Buy rating on COST Stock overall.

The market cap of COST is $468.6B.

Based on the provided data and recent market analysis, COST appears significantly overvalued. The stock currently trades at a P/E ratio of 58x, which is near its historical peak and substantially above both its historical average and industry peers. Recent revenue growth of 7.3% and net income growth of 9% don't justify such a premium valuation. The company's core business model remains strong with high membership renewal rates above 90%, but margin improvement opportunities are becoming limited at its massive scale.

The stock's current price of $1,035 represents the highest valuation multiple since 1999, when a similar elevated P/E ratio preceded a 40% decline. While Costco's business fundamentals remain solid, the valuation appears to be pricing in unrealistic growth expectations given the company's mature market position and modest 3% annual warehouse growth rate.

Multiple analysts have recently expressed concerns about the stock's elevated valuation, with particular focus on:

• Forward P/E of 50.8x vs S&P 500 average of ~37x
• PEG ratio of 5.5x indicating overvaluation relative to growth
• Limited margin expansion potential
• Warehouse growth constrained by market saturation in core regions

The stock faces potential near-term headwinds from labor negotiations and appears vulnerable to a correction given its premium valuation. While Costco remains a high-quality company, the current price level suggests investors should consider waiting for a more attractive entry point.

Costco Wholesale Corporation operates membership warehouses and e-commerce websites. The Company operates 861 warehouses, including 591 in the United States and Puerto Rico, 107 in Canada, 40 in Mexico, 33 in Japan, 29 in the United Kingdom, 18 in Korea, 15 in Australia, 14 in Taiwan, five in China, four in Spain, two in France, and one each in Iceland, New Zealand and Sweden. It also operates e-commerce sites in the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom, Mexico, Korea, Taiwan, Japan and Australia. It provides a wide selection of merchandise, convenience of specialty departments and exclusive member services. It operates through three segments: United States Operations, Canadian Operations, and Other International Operations. The Company offers merchandise categories (foods and sundries, non-foods, and fresh foods), warehouse ancillary (gasoline, pharmacy, optical, food court, hearing aids and tire installation) and other businesses (e-commerce, business centers, travel and other).

Based on the available data and analysis, here is the price prediction for Costco (COST) stock by 2030:

Base Case: $1,450-1,550

• Strong revenue growth trajectory with 7-8% annual growth
• Continued membership fee increases and high renewal rates above 90%
• E-commerce expansion driving additional growth
• PE ratio likely to normalize closer to historical average of 36x

Key Growth Drivers:

• Global warehouse expansion adding 20+ new locations annually
• E-commerce sales growing 13-34% year-over-year
• Membership fee income providing steady profit stream
• International growth opportunities, especially in Asia

Risk Factors:

• Current elevated valuation with P/E ratio near 58x
• Potential margin pressure from inflation/competition
• Macroeconomic uncertainties and consumer spending
• Supply chain disruptions and tariff impacts

Bull Case: $1,700-1,800

• Faster warehouse expansion internationally
• Higher than expected membership growth/renewal rates
• Successful premium membership tier launches
• PE multiple remains elevated due to quality premium

Bear Case: $1,100-1,200

• Economic recession impacting consumer spending
• PE multiple contracts more severely
• Increased competition eroding margins
• International expansion slower than expected

The base case scenario appears most likely given Costco's consistent execution, loyal membership base, and growth opportunities balanced against current valuation levels that may normalize over time.

COST has a total of 316000 employees.