Stock Price & Analysis

Based on the provided data and recent market activity, here's a comprehensive analysis of McDonald's (MCD) stock:

Technical Analysis

The stock is currently trading at $304.81, showing mixed technical signals:

• RSI-14 at 60.90 indicates neutral momentum
• Trading above both 60-day MA ($293.47) and 200-day MA ($280.95)
• Fibonacci support levels at $296.81 and resistance at $310.38
• Currently trading within a horizontal trend between $284.50 and $314.27

Recent Performance & Challenges

• Q4 2024 results were disappointing:
  • Revenue flat at $6.39 billion vs $6.44 billion expected
  • Net income declined 1% to $2.02 billion
  • U.S. comparable sales declined 1.4% due to E. coli outbreak
  • Global comparable sales rose only 0.4% vs 3.4% last year

Fundamental Analysis

Key Metrics:

• Forward P/E: ~25x (in line with historical average)
• Dividend Yield: 2.41%
• Operating Margin: ~46.3% (2024)
• Expected 2025 Growth: Revenue +3.8%, EPS +6.8%

Growth Strategy

1. Expansion Plans:

• Opening 2,200 new restaurants in 2025
• 25% in U.S. and international operated segments
• 1,000 new locations planned for China
• Expected unit growth slightly above 4%

2. Value-focused initiatives:

• New McValue platform launched in January 2025
• Enhanced value programs in international markets
• Average check on $5 Meal Deals exceeding $10

Insider & Institutional Activity:

• Recent insider sale: EVP-Chief Supply Chain Officer sold 1,099 shares
• 1,414 institutions increased positions vs 1,478 decreased
• Congress members made 5 trades (3 buys, 2 sells)

Investment Recommendation

HOLD - While McDonald's remains a solid defensive stock with strong fundamentals and consistent dividend growth, several factors suggest caution:

1. Near-term headwinds:

• E. coli outbreak impact expected through Q1 2025
• Slowing comparable sales growth
• Increased competition from newer concepts

2. Positive factors:

• Strong brand value and global presence
• High operating margins
• Consistent dividend growth
• Expansion plans in place

Based on the provided data and recent market analysis, here is the price prediction for McDonald's (MCD) stock in 2025:

Technical Analysis & Price Trend

Price Target Analysis

McDonald's stock is expected to reach $349 by end of 2025, representing a ~15% upside from current levels, supported by:

1. Strong international growth with international licensed markets showing 4.1% comparable store sales growth
2. Recovery from E.coli impact expected by Q2 2025 with improving margins
3. Digital platform expansion and value menu strategy driving traffic and check size

Key Growth Drivers

• Planned opening of 2,200 new restaurants in 2025 (4% unit growth)
• McValue platform launch and value meal focus to drive traffic
• Digital ordering expansion with 175 million active loyalty members
• Best Burger initiative rollout continuing through 2026

Valuation Context

The stock currently trades at ~25x forward P/E, in line with historical valuations. Multiple Wall Street analysts maintain bullish ratings with price targets ranging from $320-350:

• Citigroup: $336
• Morgan Stanley: $336
• Truist Securities: $342
• BMO Capital: $335

Most Likely Scenario: $349 (Base Case)

• Probability: 60%
• Driven by: International growth recovery, margin expansion, and successful value strategy execution

Bearish Case: $310

• Probability: 25%
• Risk factors: Extended E.coli impact, margin pressure from value focus

Bullish Case: $375

• Probability: 15%
• Upside potential: Faster-than-expected recovery, higher-than-expected international growth

The S1 support level for MCD Stock is $300.42 ,The R1 resistant level for MCD Stock is $310.78.

As of the end of day on 2025-02-26, the price of MCD Stock was $311.81.

The target price for MCD Stock according to analyst rating is 327.96, with the highest price target at 360.00 and the lowest at 290.00. Analysts have a Moderate Buy rating on MCD Stock overall.

The market cap of MCD is $222.7B.

Based on the provided data and recent market analysis, here's a concise evaluation of McDonald's (MCD) valuation:

Current Valuation Metrics:

• P/E ratio of 26.6x vs industry average of 24.5x
• Forward P/E of 24.7x
• EV/EBITDA of 19.3x
• P/S ratio of 8.4x

Recent Performance and Challenges:

• Revenue growth has been flat at $6.39 billion in Q4 2024
• Global comparable sales declined 1.5% in Q3 and 1% in Q2 2024
• E.coli outbreak impacted Q4 performance and consumer confidence
• Operating margin remains strong at 45% despite challenges

Competitive Analysis: McDonald's trades at a premium compared to peers:

• Yum! Brands (YUM): 27.9x P/E
• Restaurant Brands (QSR): 19.8x P/E
• Industry Average: 24.5x P/E

Conclusion: Yes, MCD appears overvalued at current levels based on:

1. Premium valuation multiples versus peers and industry average
2. Slowing growth and recent operational challenges
3. Near-term headwinds from E.coli outbreak impact
4. Limited upside potential given current valuation levels
5. Trading above analyst consensus price target of $300

McDonald's Corporation is a foodservice retailer with over 40,000 locations in over 100 countries. The Company's segment includes United States, International Operated Markets and International Developmental Licensed Markets & Corporate. The International Operated Markets segment is comprised of markets, or countries in which the Company operates and franchises restaurants, including Australia, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Poland, Spain and the United Kingdom. This segment is over 89% franchised. The International Developmental Licensed Markets & Corporate segment is comprised of developmental licensee and affiliate markets in the McDonald’s system. This segment is around 98% franchised. Its menu features hamburgers and cheeseburgers, the Big Mac, the Quarter Pounder with Cheese, the Filet-O-Fish, and several chicken sandwiches like the McChicken, McCrispy and McSpicy. Approximately 95% of McDonald’s restaurants worldwide are owned and operated by independent local business owners.

Based on the available data and analyst projections, McDonald's (MCD) stock is projected to reach $450-475 by 2030, driven by its continued global expansion plans of 4% annual unit growth, successful digital transformation with 175 million loyalty members, and strong value-focused strategy. The company's proven ability to gain market share during pricing competition periods and its franchise model's resilience support this bullish outlook. Multiple analysts maintain positive ratings with near-term targets around $320-350, suggesting a steady growth trajectory toward the 2030 target.

MCD has a total of 150000 employees.