MCD Earnings Prediction
The chart below shows how MCD performed 10 days before and after its earnings report, based on data from the past quarters. Typically, MCD sees a -1.17% change in stock price 10 days leading up to the earnings, and a +1.30% change 10 days following the report. On the earnings day itself, the stock moves by +0.84%. This data can give you a slight idea of what to expect for the next quarter's release.
MCD Key Earning Data
2024/Q4
Year Over Year
Quarter Over Quarter
Total Revenue
6.39B
-0.28%
-7.06%
Gross Margin
57.58%
0.95%
2.13%
Operating Margin
45.07%
1.95%
-4.00%
Net Margin
31.56%
-0.85%
-3.81%
EPS
2.80
0.00%
-10.54%
No Data Available
MCD Earnings Analysis
McDonald's Corp Corporation (MCD.N) Earnings Conference Call
Positive
Positive Sales Trend: Global comp sales increased by 0.4% in Q4, indicating a positive trend despite challenges faced earlier in the year.
International Sales Growth: International Developmental License segment reported over 4% comp sales growth for the quarter, driven by strong performance in the Middle East and Japan.
Strong Adjusted Operating Margin: Adjusted operating margin for the full year was over 46%, demonstrating the resilience of the business model despite industry challenges.
Capital Expenditures Overview: Capital expenditures for the year were nearly $2.8 billion, with over half allocated to new restaurant unit expansion, supporting future growth.
Shareholder Return Commitment: Returned $7.7 billion to shareholders through dividends and share buybacks, reflecting a strong commitment to returning excess cash flow.
Negative
Sales Performance Decline: Global comp sales decreased 0.1% for the full year, with U.S. comp sales down 1.4% in Q4 due to the E. Coli outbreak, indicating a significant negative impact on sales performance.
Q4 Adjusted EPS Decline: Adjusted earnings per share for Q4 were $2.83, a 4% decrease compared to the prior year, reflecting pressure on the top line and higher operating expenses.
Free Cash Flow Performance: Free cash flow conversion for the year was 81%, below the expected 90% range, due to pressures on top line performance and higher capital expenditures.
Rising Interest Expense Projections: Interest expense is projected to increase by 46% in 2025 compared to 2024, driven by higher average debt balances and interest rates, indicating rising financial costs.
U.K. Market Underperformance: The U.K. market has been underperforming due to cost of living pressures on low-income consumers and aggressive competition, leading to a decline in sales performance.
MCD FAQs
How does MCD typically perform around its earnings report dates?
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MCD Earning Call Sentiment
Earnings call transcript: McDonald's Q4 2024 earnings miss forecasts, stock rises
MCD.N
1.87%Positive
The earnings call summary indicates mixed signals: positive U.S. comp sales, a dividend increase, and a strong commitment to shareholder returns contrast with challenges like international sales issues, inflationary pressures, and E. Coli impact. The Q&A session highlighted some optimism in U.S. market recovery and value programs but also exposed management's reluctance to provide clear guidance on future sales. Given these mixed factors, the stock price is likely to remain stable, resulting in a neutral sentiment prediction.
