TSM Earnings Prediction
The chart below shows how TSM performed 10 days before and after its earnings report, based on data from the past quarters. Typically, TSM sees a -4.26% change in stock price 10 days leading up to the earnings, and a -2.16% change 10 days following the report. On the earnings day itself, the stock moves by +2.93%. This data can give you a slight idea of what to expect for the next quarter's release.
TSM Key Earning Data
TSM Earnings Analysis
Positive
Quarterly Revenue Surge: Fourth quarter revenue increased 14.3% sequentially in NT, driven by strong demand for 3 nanometer and 5 nanometer technologies.
Gross Margin Improvement: Gross margin rose by 1.2 percentage points sequentially to 59%, reflecting higher capacity utilization and productivity gains.
Operating Margin Improvement: Operating margin increased by 1.5 percentage points sequentially to 49%, with total operating expenses accounting for only 10% of net revenue.
Revenue Increase and Technology Shift: Full year 2024 revenue increased 30% in US dollar terms to $90 billion, with advanced technologies accounting for 69% of total wafer revenue, up from 58% in 2023.
Cash Dividends Increase: Cash dividends for 2024 totaled TWD363 billion, marking a 24.5% year-over-year increase.
Negative
Q4 Revenue Decline Guidance: Fourth quarter revenue guidance indicates a sequential decline of 5.5%, reflecting potential challenges in maintaining growth momentum amid smartphone seasonality.
Operating Margin Decline: Operating margin is expected to decrease by 100 basis points in the first quarter of 2025 due to ramp costs associated with new technologies and dilution from overseas fabs.
Margin Dilution Projections: The anticipated margin dilution from overseas fabs is projected to be 2% to 3% annually over the next five years, indicating a significant long-term impact on profitability.
Impact of Inflation on Margins: Inflationary costs, particularly higher electricity prices in Taiwan, are expected to negatively impact gross margin by at least 1% in 2025, adding pressure to overall profitability.
Gross Margin Dilution Forecast: The company has indicated that the ramp-up costs associated with new technologies, including N2 and CoWoS expansion, will further dilute gross margins by approximately 1% in 2025.
TSM FAQs
How does TSM typically perform around its earnings report dates?
TSM's stock performance around earnings reports can vary, but historical data shows specific patterns, such as a -4.26% change leading up to the report and a -2.16% change in the 10 days following the release.
