ASML Earnings Prediction
The chart below shows how ASML performed 10 days before and after its earnings report, based on data from the past quarters. Typically, ASML sees a -0.92% change in stock price 10 days leading up to the earnings, and a +1.25% change 10 days following the report. On the earnings day itself, the stock moves by -1.78%. This data can give you a slight idea of what to expect for the next quarter's release.
ASML Key Earning Data
2024/Q4
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ASML Earnings Analysis
ASML Holding NV Corporation (ASML.O) Earnings Conference Call
Positive
Strong Sales Performance: Total net sales came in at EUR 7.5 billion which is above the high end of our guidance driven by more DEEP UV system sales as well as higher installed base management sales.
Net Sales Breakdown: Net sales came in at EUR 5.9 billion which is made up of EUR 2.1 billion of EUV sales and EUR 3.8 billion of non-EUV sales.
Installed Base Sales Surge: Installed Base Management sales for the quarter came in above guidance at EUR 1.54 billion due to higher service and upgrade revenue.
Quarterly Gross Margin Guidance: Gross margin for the quarter came in within guidance of 50.8%.
Free Cash Flow Improvement: We ended Q3 with a free cash flow of EUR 534 million which is somewhat improved relative to last quarter.
Negative
Sales Performance Exceeds Guidance: Total net sales came in at EUR 7.5 billion, which is above the high end of our guidance driven by more DEEP UV system sales as well as higher installed base management sales.
Net Sales Breakdown: Net sales came in at EUR 5.9 billion, which is made up of EUR 2.1 billion of EUV sales and EUR 3.8 billion of non-EUV sales.
Quarterly Gross Margin Guidance: Gross margin for the quarter came in within guidance of 50.8%.
R&D and SG&A Expenses: R&D expenses came in slightly below guidance at EUR 1.06 billion while SG&A expenses came in as guided at EUR 297 million.
Free Cash Flow Update: We ended Q3 with a free cash flow of EUR 534 million which is somewhat improved relative to last quarter, however, there continued to be pressure on free cash flow.
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ASML Earning Call Sentiment
ASML Holding N.V. (ASML) Q3 2024 Earnings Call Transcript
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ASML.O
-5.75%Positive
The earnings call indicates strong financial performance, with net sales and installed base management sales exceeding guidance. Despite lower order intake and higher inventory, free cash flow improved. The Q&A session revealed cautious sentiment due to regulatory pressures and demand uncertainties, but management's optimistic outlook on High NA systems and DUV growth outside China offsets these concerns. The dividend announcement and steady cash reserves further support a positive outlook. While some guidance was lowered, the overall sentiment remains positive, likely resulting in a stock price increase of 2% to 8%.