IBM Earnings Prediction
The chart below shows how IBM performed 10 days before and after its earnings report, based on data from the past quarters. Typically, IBM sees a -0.42% change in stock price 10 days leading up to the earnings, and a +1.31% change 10 days following the report. On the earnings day itself, the stock moves by +0.05%. This data can give you a slight idea of what to expect for the next quarter's release.
IBM Key Earning Data
IBM Earnings Analysis
Positive
Q4 Revenue Growth: IBM delivered a revenue growth of 3% for Q4 2024, with a total revenue of $63 billion for the year, exceeding expectations and demonstrating strong performance across all segments.
Record Free Cash Flow: Free cash flow reached $12.7 billion, marking the highest level of free cash flow generation in many years, with a free cash flow margin that is the highest in reported history.
Software Revenue Growth: Software revenue grew by 11% in Q4, driven by strong performance in Red Hat, which saw a 17% increase, and overall software now represents 45% of IBM's business with over $15 billion in annual recurring revenue.
Operating Margin Expansion: The operating pre-tax margin expanded by 120 basis points, leading to a 9% increase in operating pre-tax profit and a 14% growth in free cash flow, showcasing effective cost management and operational efficiency.
Generative AI Business Growth: IBM's generative AI book of business grew to over $5 billion, with a $2 billion increase quarter over quarter, reflecting strong demand and positioning in the AI market.
Negative
Consulting Revenue Decline: Consulting revenue decreased by 1% in Q4, reflecting a dynamic market environment as clients reprioritized spending.
Infrastructure Revenue Decline: Infrastructure revenue fell by 6% in Q4, primarily due to product cycle dynamics, with IBM Z revenue down 20% in the quarter.
Minimal Earnings Growth: Operating earnings per share increased by only 1% to $3.92, indicating minimal growth in profitability despite strong revenue performance.
Free Cash Flow Dynamics: Free cash flow growth was driven by adjusted EBITDA, which increased by only $900 million year-over-year, suggesting limited operational efficiency improvements.
Currency Impact on Revenue: The company expects a 2-point headwind to revenue growth in 2025 due to currency fluctuations, which may impact overall financial performance.
IBM FAQs
How does IBM typically perform around its earnings report dates?
IBM's stock performance around earnings reports can vary, but historical data shows specific patterns, such as a -0.42% change leading up to the report and a +1.31% change in the 10 days following the release.
Is International Business Machines Corp (IBM) Q4 2024 Earnings Call Summary positive or negative?
How can historical earnings data help predict future stock performance?
IBM Earning Call Sentiment
Earnings call transcript: IBM Q4 2024 sees record cash flow, stock dips
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