NFLX Earnings Prediction
The chart below shows how NFLX performed 10 days before and after its earnings report, based on data from the past quarters. Typically, NFLX sees a +1.45% change in stock price 10 days leading up to the earnings, and a +6.62% change 10 days following the report. On the earnings day itself, the stock moves by -0.73%. This data can give you a slight idea of what to expect for the next quarter's release.
NFLX Key Earning Data
2024/Q4
Year Over Year
Quarter Over Quarter
Total Revenue
10.25B
16.00%
4.29%
Gross Margin
43.71%
9.52%
-8.73%
Operating Margin
22.18%
30.93%
-25.09%
Net Margin
18.24%
71.75%
-24.19%
EPS
4.27
102.37%
-20.93%
No Data Available
NFLX Earnings Analysis
Netflix Inc Corporation (NFLX.O) Earnings Conference Call
Positive
Subscriber Growth Surge: Subscriber growth reached 19 million additions in Q4, driven by a diverse content portfolio, indicating strong overall service performance.
Ad Tier Demand Surge: The advertising plan saw over 55% of sign-ups in ad-supported countries, with membership increasing by 30% quarter over quarter, showcasing robust demand for the ad tier.
Viewership Success of 'Carry On': 'Carry On' achieved 313 million view hours in less than two months, surpassing 'Bird Box' viewership, demonstrating Netflix's ability to create successful original content.
Women's Sports Strategy Expansion: The FIFA Women's World Cup rights acquisition for 2027 aligns with Netflix's strategy to enhance live sports offerings, capitalizing on the growing popularity of women's sports.
Increased Operating Margin Guidance: Operating margin guidance for 2025 was raised to 12%-14%, supported by disciplined expense growth and strategic investments in key growth areas.
Negative
Subscriber Growth and Retention: Subscriber growth was driven by a broad slate of programming, but retention rates post-holiday events were not disclosed, indicating potential concerns about long-term subscriber loyalty.
Currency Impact on Margins: The U.S. dollar's strength is expected to negatively impact margin targets, with 60% of revenue in non-U.S. currencies and only 50% hedged, suggesting vulnerability to currency fluctuations.
Ad Engagement Challenges: Despite significant growth in the advertising user base, the engagement of ad-supported members remains similar to non-ad-supported members, indicating challenges in differentiating the ad experience.
Content Spending Increase Concerns: Content spending is projected to increase from $17 billion in 2024 to $18 billion in 2025, raising concerns about sustainability and the potential for diminishing returns on investment.
Rising Operating Expenses Pressure: Operating expenses are expected to grow at a high single-digit rate, while content amortization growth is also projected to be high single-digit, suggesting pressure on margins amidst rising costs.
NFLX FAQs
How does NFLX typically perform around its earnings report dates?
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NFLX Earning Call Sentiment
Earnings call transcript: Netflix Q4 2024 beats EPS, stock surges
NFLX.O
-0.54%Positive
The earnings call highlights strong subscriber growth, increased ad plan sign-ups, and high engagement hours, indicating robust financial performance and strategic execution. While the Q&A section revealed some avoidance on specifics, the overall sentiment remains positive due to optimistic guidance, improved operating margins, and successful content strategies. The lack of disruption from external factors like wildfires and the strategic focus on growth areas like gaming and sports rights further bolster the positive outlook.