Analysis and Insights
Valuation Metrics
Novartis AG (NVS) currently exhibits a trailing P/E ratio of 20.83 (Q3 2024) and 16.58 (Q4 2024), which is higher than the industry average, suggesting potential overvaluation. The EV/EBITDA ratio of 12.49 (Q3 2024) and 9.37 (Q4 2024) indicates moderate valuation levels, while the P/S ratio of 4.72 (Q3 2024) and 3.83 (Q4 2024) reflects a premium compared to some peers. The P/B ratio of 5.31 (Q3 2024) and 4.36 (Q4 2024) is elevated, further signaling overvaluation.
Recent News and Analyst Sentiment
The FDA approval of Fabhalta for C3 glomerulopathy (C3G) is a positive development, but the label restrictions may limit its market potential, leaving room for competitors like Apellis’ Empaveli. Additionally, concerns over high levies on pharmaceutical manufacturers in the UK could impact Novartis' profitability. Analyst sentiment is mixed, with UBS downgrading NVS to Neutral with a lower price target of CHF 104, while Kepler Capital and Deutsche Bank maintain a Buy rating with targets of CHF 106 and CHF 104, respectively.
Stock Performance and Dividend Yield
NVS stock is trading at $112.26, near its 52-week high of $112.72, with an average trading volume of 3.91 million shares. The dividend yield of 3.25% (Q3 2024) and 3.84% (Q4 2024) is attractive, providing some downside protection.
Conclusion
Based on the elevated P/E and P/B ratios, mixed analyst sentiment, and regulatory headwinds, NVS appears overvalued. However, its strong dividend yield and recent FDA approvals provide some support. Investors should consider waiting for a price correction or improved market conditions before entering.