Stock Price & Analysis

Based on the provided data and current market context, here's my analysis of TSM:

Technical Analysis

The stock is currently trading at $221.88, showing a -1.22% decline in the last regular market session. However, there's a positive momentum in after-hours trading with a +0.27% increase.

Fundamental Strengths

• Strong AI Growth Potential: Management projects a mid-40% CAGR for AI revenue over the next five years
• Market Leadership: Maintains dominant 64% share in global foundry market
• Solid Q4 2024 Performance: Revenue reached $26.88 billion, up 38.8% YoY

Recent Developments

• Secured $1.5 billion in U.S. CHIPS Act subsidies
• Planning significant capital expenditure of $38-42 billion for fiscal 2025
• Strong demand for advanced node technologies, particularly in AI applications

Valuation Analysis

• Forward P/E ratio of 24, which is competitive compared to the S&P 500 average
• The stock has gained approximately 92% over the past year

Analyst Sentiment

Buy Recommendation Based on the analysis, TSM presents a compelling buy opportunity for the following reasons:

1. Leading position in AI chip manufacturing
2. Strong financial performance and growth projections
3. Reasonable valuation despite recent price appreciation
4. Positive analyst sentiment with recent price target increases

Risk Factors

• Geopolitical tensions between U.S. and China
• Cyclical nature of semiconductor industry
• High capital expenditure requirements

Based on the provided data and recent market developments, here's a comprehensive analysis for TSM's price prediction in 2025:

Technical Analysis

Price Target Analysis

TSM's stock has shown remarkable strength, rising approximately 92% over the past year. The current price level around $222 represents a significant milestone, with several key factors supporting further upside potential:

Bullish Catalysts:

1. AI Revenue Growth: Management projects a mid-40% CAGR for AI revenue over the next five years. This aggressive growth trajectory in the AI segment could drive substantial value creation.

2. Capital Investment: TSM plans to invest $38-42 billion in capital expenditures for fiscal 2025, significantly higher than the $29.8 billion from the previous year. This demonstrates confidence in future demand and technological leadership.

3. Market Position: As the world's largest foundry operator, TSM maintains its dominant position with a 64% market share. The company manufactures chips for major tech giants including Nvidia, AMD, Qualcomm, and Apple.

Price Targets for 2025:

Based on analyst projections and technical analysis:

• Base Case: $255-270 (15-20% upside)
• Bull Case: $290-310 (30-40% upside)
• Bear Case: $180-200 (10-20% downside)

Recent analyst ratings support this outlook:

• Barclays raised their price target to $255 with an Overweight rating
• Needham maintains a Strong Buy rating with a $225 price target

Probability Assessment:

• Bull Case: 40% probability
• Base Case: 45% probability
• Bear Case: 15% probability

The most likely scenario is the base case, supported by:

1. Strong AI demand growth
2. Continued market leadership in advanced chip manufacturing
3. Healthy capital investment plans
4. Positive analyst sentiment

The S1 support level for TSM Stock is $202.06 ,The R1 resistant level for TSM Stock is $223.38.

As of the end of day on 2025-01-24, the price of TSM Stock was $222.28.

The target price for TSM Stock according to analyst rating is 237.17, with the highest price target at 258.00 and the lowest at 200.00. Analysts have a Strong Buy rating on TSM Stock overall.

The market cap of TSM is $1.2T.

Based on the provided data and current market conditions, TSM appears fairly valued with some potential upside. Here's the detailed analysis:

Valuation Metrics

• Forward P/E: 25.85x (Q1 2024)
• EV/EBITDA: 13.98x
• P/S: 9.86x
• P/B: 6.20x
• Dividend Yield: 1.70%

Recent Performance and Market Position TSM's stock has surged approximately 92% over the past year, significantly outperforming major market indices. The company's current market capitalization exceeds $1 trillion, making it one of the world's most valuable semiconductor companies.

Growth Drivers and Business Outlook

• Strong AI Demand: Management projects a mid-40% CAGR for AI revenue over the next five years
• Capital Investment: Planning $38-42 billion in capex for fiscal 2025, showing commitment to growth
• Government Support: Secured $1.5 billion in U.S. subsidies under the CHIPS Act

Analyst Sentiment Recent analyst actions show strong bullish sentiment:

• Barclays: Raised PT to $255 (20.57% upside) citing strong AI growth
• Needham: Maintains Strong Buy rating with $225 PT
• Susquehanna: Maintains Buy rating with $250 PT

Technical Analysis The stock is currently trading at $221.88, showing strong momentum but approaching resistance levels. The recent pullback from $226.40 provides a potential entry point for long-term investors.

Conclusion While TSM's valuation metrics appear elevated compared to historical averages, they are justified by:

1. Industry leadership in advanced chip manufacturing
2. Strong AI-driven growth prospects
3. Solid analyst support
4. Government backing through subsidies

The stock appears fairly valued at current levels with potential upside driven by continued AI demand growth and market expansion.

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd is a Taiwan-based company mainly engaged in the provision of integrated circuit manufacturing services. The integrated circuit manufacturing services include process technology, special process technology, design ecosystem support, mask technology, 3DFabricTM advanced packaging and silicon stacking technology services. The Company has completed the transfer and mass production of 5nm technology, and is engaged in the research and development of 3nm process technology and 2nm process technology. The product application range covers the entire electronic application industry, including personal computers and peripheral products, information application products, wired and wireless communication system products, servers and data centers.

Based on the provided data and recent market analysis, here is the price prediction for TSM stock by 2030:

TSM stock is projected to reach $450-500 by 2030, driven by its dominant 64% market share in the global foundry business and the explosive growth in AI chip demand. The semiconductor market is expected to generate $1.47 trillion in revenue by 2030, with TSMC maintaining its position as the key manufacturer for top chip designers like Nvidia, AMD, and Apple. The company's mid-40% CAGR projection for AI revenue over the next five years and its technological leadership in advanced node processes like 2nm chips support this bullish outlook.

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TSM has a total of 76478 employees.