Based on the provided context and data, I'll analyze TSM's price prediction for 2025:
Technical Analysis
Price Target Analysis
According to multiple analyst reports, TSM is expected to reach $225-$230 by end of 2025, driven by three key factors:
- AI Revenue Growth
- Management projects AI-related revenue to double in 2025
- Expecting mid-40% CAGR in AI revenue through 2029
- AI accelerators currently account for mid-teens percentage of total revenue
- Overall Revenue Growth
- Company guidance shows mid-20% revenue growth for 2025
- Long-term revenue CAGR approaching 20% through 2029
- Gross margins expected to remain strong at 57-59%
- Market Leadership Position
- Maintains ~65% market share in global foundry market
- Advanced process nodes account for 69% of wafer revenue
- Planning $38-42 billion capex investment in 2025
Based on these factors and current price of $198.24, TSM stock is likely to reach $225 by end of 2025, representing about 13.5% upside from current levels. This prediction is supported by:
- Strong fundamentals and market leadership position
- Accelerating AI chip demand from major customers
- Reasonable valuation at 24x forward earnings
The key risk to this prediction is potential geopolitical tensions between China and Taiwan, which could create volatility in the stock price despite strong business fundamentals.