Stock Price & Analysis

Based on the provided data and recent market developments, here's a comprehensive analysis of TSM stock:

Technical Analysis

The stock is currently showing mixed technical signals:

• Recent price action shows consolidation around $128 level
• RSI-14 at 43.09 indicates neutral momentum but approaching oversold territory
• MACD shows bearish divergence with -1.50 reading and -1.13 histogram
• Stochastic K (15.98) below D (23.75) suggests downward pressure

Fundamental Strength

TSMC maintains strong fundamentals:

• Revenue growth of 20% projected annually for next 5 years
• AI-related revenue expected to grow at 40%+ CAGR over next 5 years
• Gross margin guidance of 58% for Q1 2025
• Forward P/E of ~24x, below tech sector average

Key Growth Catalysts

1. AI Infrastructure Demand

• Dominant 64% market share in global foundry market
• Manufacturing partner for major AI chip designers like NVIDIA and Broadcom
• Expected doubling of AI accelerator revenue in 2025

2. Market Leadership

• Superior technological capabilities acknowledged by industry leaders
• Planned capex of $38-42B for 2025 vs $29.8B in 2024
• Expanding manufacturing footprint globally to mitigate geopolitical risks

Risk Factors

1. Geopolitical Tensions

• Potential impact from US-China trade restrictions
• Trump administration's proposed semiconductor tariffs

2. Competition

• Emerging threats from Intel and Samsung in advanced manufacturing
• Chinese companies developing competing technologies

Conclusion

Despite recent price weakness, TSM appears to be a HOLD at current levels. The company's dominant market position, strong growth outlook in AI, and reasonable valuation support long-term investment thesis. However, short-term technical indicators suggest waiting for better entry points below $120.

Based on the provided context and data, I'll analyze TSM's price prediction for 2025:

Technical Analysis

Price Target Analysis According to multiple analyst reports, TSM is expected to reach $225-$230 by end of 2025, driven by three key factors:

1. AI Revenue Growth

• Management projects AI-related revenue to double in 2025
• Expecting mid-40% CAGR in AI revenue through 2029
• AI accelerators currently account for mid-teens percentage of total revenue

2. Overall Revenue Growth

• Company guidance shows mid-20% revenue growth for 2025
• Long-term revenue CAGR approaching 20% through 2029
• Gross margins expected to remain strong at 57-59%

3. Market Leadership Position

• Maintains ~65% market share in global foundry market
• Advanced process nodes account for 69% of wafer revenue
• Planning $38-42 billion capex investment in 2025

Based on these factors and current price of $198.24, TSM stock is likely to reach $225 by end of 2025, representing about 13.5% upside from current levels. This prediction is supported by:

1. Strong fundamentals and market leadership position
2. Accelerating AI chip demand from major customers
3. Reasonable valuation at 24x forward earnings

The key risk to this prediction is potential geopolitical tensions between China and Taiwan, which could create volatility in the stock price despite strong business fundamentals.

The S1 support level for TSM Stock is $190.69 ,The R1 resistant level for TSM Stock is $207.78.

As of the end of day on 2025-02-26, the price of TSM Stock was $191.72.

The target price for TSM Stock according to analyst rating is 245.00, with the highest price target at 265.00 and the lowest at 215.00. Analysts have a Strong Buy rating on TSM Stock overall.

The market cap of TSM is $4.9T.

Based on the provided data and recent market analysis, here's a comprehensive evaluation of TSM's valuation:

Current Valuation Metrics TSM is currently trading at reasonable valuation levels despite its strong market position:

• Forward P/E: 24x (compared to semiconductor industry average of ~25x)
• EV/EBITDA: 11.04x (2023)
• P/S: 7.77x (2023)
• P/B: 4.78x (2023)
• Dividend Yield: 2.04%

Market Performance & Technical Analysis

• Current price around $198, showing some weakness in recent trading sessions
• RSI at 43.09 indicates neutral momentum
• Trading above key moving averages (200-day SMA at $181.85)
• Bollinger Band analysis suggests moderate volatility with price near the middle band

Why TSM is NOT Overvalued

1. Strong Growth Prospects

• Management projects 20% CAGR over next five years
• AI-related revenue expected to grow at 40% CAGR
• Maintains 67% share of global foundry market expected in 2025

2. Industry Leadership

• Dominates advanced chip manufacturing with 64% market share
• Critical supplier to major tech companies (Nvidia, AMD, Apple)
• Leading position in 3nm and 5nm technologies

3. Financial Strength

• Healthy gross margins around 54-59%
• Strong cash flow generation
• Continued investment in capacity expansion

4. Strategic Positioning

• Expanding U.S. presence with Arizona facilities
• Diversifying geographic risk
• Essential position in global semiconductor supply chain

5. Reasonable Valuation

• Trading at 19.8x projected 2025 earnings
• Expected earnings growth of 19.3% in 2025
• 31.4% projected earnings CAGR over next five years

The stock appears fairly valued considering its market position, growth prospects, and strategic importance in the global semiconductor industry.

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd is a Taiwan-based company mainly engaged in the provision of integrated circuit manufacturing services. The integrated circuit manufacturing services include process technology, special process technology, design ecosystem support, mask technology, 3DFabricTM advanced packaging and silicon stacking technology services. The Company has completed the transfer and mass production of 5nm technology, and is engaged in the research and development of 3nm process technology and 2nm process technology. The product application range covers the entire electronic application industry, including personal computers and peripheral products, information application products, wired and wireless communication system products, servers and data centers.

Based on the provided data and market research, here's a comprehensive analysis for TSM's price prediction for 2030:

Long-term Growth Projections

Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) is projected to achieve approximately $450-500 per share by 2030, driven by three key factors:

1. Management projects a 20% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) over the next five years, with AI-related revenue expected to grow at an impressive 45% CAGR. This strong growth trajectory suggests sustained momentum through 2030.

2. The company's dominant 64% market share in global foundry manufacturing positions it perfectly to capitalize on the semiconductor market's expansion, which is forecast to reach $1.47 trillion by 2030.

3. TSM's strategic position as the primary manufacturer for industry leaders like Nvidia, AMD, and Apple, combined with its technological leadership in advanced chip production (planning 2nm in late 2025 and 1.6nm in late 2026), supports this price target.

TSM has a total of 76478 employees.