Stock Price & Analysis

Based on the provided data and current market conditions, FCX is showing mixed signals. The stock has declined 3% in the latest trading session to $39.09, with technical indicators suggesting a neutral to slightly bearish short-term outlook.

Technical Analysis

• RSI-14 at 42.36 indicates neutral momentum but approaching oversold territory
• The stock is trading below its 60-day SMA of $42.32, suggesting bearish intermediate-term trend
• Current price finding support near the Fibonacci S1 level of $38.61

Fundamental Factors

• Freeport-McMoRan is scheduled to report Q4 2024 earnings tomorrow (Jan 24)
• Analysts expect EPS of $0.21 and revenue of $5.93 billion for Q4 2024
• The company guided for Q4 consolidated sales volumes of:
  • 1 billion pounds of copper
  • 450 thousand ounces of gold
  • 20 million pounds of molybdenum

Recent Analyst Actions

• JPMorgan lowered price target to $48 from $55, maintaining Neutral rating (Jan 16, 2025)
• Bernstein downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform with $46 target (Jan 7, 2025)
• Scotiabank maintained Sector Perform rating but lowered target to $48 from $52 (Jan 6, 2025)

Recommendation Given the upcoming earnings report tomorrow and current technical weakness, it would be prudent to HOLD FCX at current levels. Wait for the earnings results before making any new position decisions, as the report could significantly impact near-term price movement.

Based on the provided data and context, I'll analyze FCX's price prediction for 2025.

Technical Analysis and Recent Performance:

FCX has shown significant volatility in recent months, with the stock currently trading around $39.09. The stock has experienced a 25% decline over the past three months compared to the S&P 500's 3% gain, largely due to concerns about global economic slowdown and weaker copper demand, particularly in China.

Fundamental Drivers and Market Outlook:

The key factors supporting a bullish case for FCX in 2025:

1. Strong copper demand outlook: McKinsey estimates copper demand to increase to 36.6 million tonnes by 2031, while supply may only reach 30.1 million tonnes.

2. Production capabilities: Freeport owns one of the largest copper reserves globally with 104 billion pounds of proven reserves.

3. Operational improvements: The company is implementing innovative leaching methods expected to boost production by 200 million pounds annually in North America.

Price Target for 2025:

Based on the analysis of multiple sources and market conditions, FCX is expected to reach $47 per share by mid-2025. This projection is supported by:

1. Current valuation metrics showing FCX trading at an EV/EBITDA multiple of 8x versus peers' average of 9x.
2. Strong operational performance with Q3 2024 revenue of $6.79 billion, beating consensus estimates.
3. The company's strategic position as the world's largest copper producer with over 7% of global production.

The S1 support level for FCX Stock is $37.22 ,The R1 resistant level for FCX Stock is $40.64.

As of the end of day on 2025-01-24, the price of FCX Stock was $37.76.

The target price for FCX Stock according to analyst rating is 54.09, with the highest price target at 67.00 and the lowest at 46.00. Analysts have a Moderate Buy rating on FCX Stock overall.

The market cap of FCX is $52.9B.

Based on the provided data and recent analyst reports, I'll analyze whether FCX is overvalued through multiple perspectives.

Valuation Analysis: FCX currently trades at a PE ratio of 36.02, significantly higher than its historical average, suggesting potential overvaluation from an earnings perspective.

Recent Price Movement: The stock has dropped approximately 25% over the last three months, indicating market concerns about its valuation levels.

Analyst Consensus: Recent analyst actions show a trend of price target reductions. JPMorgan lowered target from $55 to $48, Bernstein downgraded from Buy to Hold with $46 target, and Jefferies reduced target from $60 to $48.

Fundamental Factors: The company faces near-term risks including potential license extension delays in Indonesia and uncertainty around China's stimulus measures, which could impact copper demand.

Conclusion: FCX appears overvalued at current levels due to elevated valuation multiples, recent analyst downgrades, and significant near-term operational risks.

Freeport-McMoRan Inc. is an international mining company. The Company operates geographically diverse assets with significant proven and probable reserves of copper, gold and molybdenum. Its portfolio of assets includes the Grasberg minerals district in Indonesia, which is a copper and gold deposits, and significant mining operations in North America and South America, including the Morenci minerals district in Arizona and the Cerro Verde operation in Peru. Its segments include the Morenci, Cerro Verde and Grasberg (Indonesia mining) copper mines, the Rod & Refining operations and Atlantic Copper Smelting & Refining. In North America, it operates seven copper mines: Morenci, Bagdad, Safford (including Lone Star), Sierrita and Miami in Arizona, and Chino and Tyrone in New Mexico, and two molybdenum mines: Henderson and Climax in Colorado. In South America, it also operates the El Abra copper mine. The Morenci mine produces copper cathode, copper concentrate and molybdenum concentrate.

Based on the provided data and market analysis, here is the price prediction for FCX stock by 2030:

Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) stock is projected to reach $47 by 2025 and could potentially hit $65-70 by 2030, driven by increasing copper demand for electric vehicles and renewable energy infrastructure. The company's position as the world's largest copper producer with over 104 billion pounds of proven reserves positions it well to capitalize on the expected supply-demand gap, as copper demand is estimated to reach 36.6 million tonnes by 2031 while supply may only reach 30.1 million tonnes.

The company's strong operational improvements and innovative leaching methods are expected to boost production by 200 million pounds annually in North America, which should help drive long-term value.

FCX has a total of 27200 employees.