Based on the recent data and market analysis, DECK appears to be overvalued at current levels for several key reasons:
Valuation Metrics
The stock is trading at elevated multiples with a P/E of 33x, significantly above the industry average. The EV/EBITDA ratio of 23.34x and P/S ratio of 6.33x in Q3 2025 also indicate rich valuation levels.
Growth Concerns
Recent Q3 2025 earnings revealed concerning signals about growth deceleration:
- Inventory levels increased by over 20% year-over-year
- Management provided conservative Q4 guidance suggesting slowdown
- HOKA brand growth rates are expected to moderate
Analyst Sentiment
Multiple analysts have recently lowered their price targets:
- TD Cowen cut target from $244 to $199
- Wells Fargo reduced from $215 to $210
- Truist Securities lowered from $235 to $225
Technical Analysis
The stock recently broke below key support levels around $182, suggesting further downside risk. RSI at 28.75 indicates oversold conditions but momentum remains negative.
Market Response
The stock dropped over 18% following the latest earnings report despite beating estimates, indicating the market is concerned about future growth trajectory and current valuation levels.
The combination of rich valuation multiples, decelerating growth outlook, and deteriorating technical picture suggests DECK is overvalued at current levels and may see further price adjustments as growth moderates.