Stock Price & Analysis

Based on the recent data and market analysis, here's a concise assessment of HSY stock:

Technical Analysis

The stock is showing bearish momentum, having declined 1.82% to close at $157.88 on Friday. The stock is trading near its 52-week low, down about 45% from its 2023 highs.

Fundamental Factors

• Cocoa Price Impact: Record-high cocoa prices (over $10,500 per metric ton, up 86% YoY) are significantly pressuring margins. Hershey's hedging protection is expected to roll off, potentially impacting 2025 earnings by up to 36%.

• Valuation Metrics:

  Metric	Current	Industry Avg
  P/E	29.08	25.2
  EV/EBITDA	19.60	17.8
  P/S	4.59	3.9
  Dividend Yield	1.67%	1.2%

Recent Developments

• Multiple analyst downgrades, with an average price target of $149.81, suggesting further downside
• Citigroup recently upgraded to Hold but lowered price target to $154
• The Hershey Trust's controlling stake provides stability and long-term focus

Recommendation

SELL. While Hershey remains a strong brand with stable business fundamentals, several factors suggest caution:

1. Ongoing cocoa price pressures likely to persist through 2025
2. Technical indicators showing continued downward momentum
3. Valuation still above industry averages despite the price decline
4. Weight loss drug concerns impacting consumer sentiment

Better entry points may emerge once cocoa prices stabilize and margin pressures ease. Consider waiting for technical confirmation of a trend reversal before establishing positions.

Based on the provided data and recent market developments, here's the price prediction for HSY stock in 2025:

HSY stock is projected to trade around $145-150 by end of 2025, representing a potential decline of 8-11% from current levels, primarily due to unprecedented cocoa price pressures and margin challenges. Recent analyst downgrades and cocoa futures hitting $10,538 per metric ton (86% higher than last year) are creating significant headwinds for Hershey's profitability. The consensus among 17 Wall Street analysts points to a bearish outlook with a price target of $149.81.

The S1 support level for HSY Stock is $143.95 ,The R1 resistant level for HSY Stock is $162.03.

As of the end of day on 2025-02-19, the price of HSY Stock was $162.98.

The target price for HSY Stock according to analyst rating is 149.81, with the highest price target at 178.00 and the lowest at 120.00. Analysts have a Hold rating on HSY Stock overall.

The market cap of HSY is $33.1B.

Based on the recent data and analysis, here are 5 key points about HSY's valuation:

HSY appears overvalued at current levels due to significant headwinds from record-high cocoa prices impacting margins. The stock's P/E ratio of 26.1x remains above industry averages despite recent price declines.

Multiple analyst downgrades reflect deteriorating fundamentals, with price targets lowered to $149-151 range, implying further downside from current levels.

The company has warned earnings could fall by up to 36% in 2025 as cocoa hedges roll off and input costs surge, with cocoa prices more than doubling over the past year to $10,538 per metric ton.

Current valuation metrics show concerning trends with EV/EBITDA at 14.26x and P/S at 4.35x, both indicating premium valuations despite operational challenges.

Technical indicators suggest bearish momentum with RSI at 52.31 and negative MACD divergence, pointing to continued downward pressure on the stock price.

The Hershey Company is a confectionery company. The Company offers a branded portfolio of chocolate, sweets, mints and other snacks. The Company operates through three segments, which include North America Confectionery, North America Salty Snacks and International. The North America Confectionery segment includes its business in chocolate and non-chocolate confectionery, gum and refreshment products, protein bars, spreads, snack bites and mixes, as well as pantry and food service lines. The North America Salty Snacks segment offers salty snacking products in the United States. This includes ready-to-eat popcorn, baked and trans fat-free snacks, pretzels and other snacks. The international segment has operations and manufactures products in Mexico, Brazil, India and Malaysia, primarily for consumers in these regions, and also distributes and sell confectionery products in export markets of Asia, Latin America, the Middle East, Europe, Africa and other regions.

Based on the available data and recent market developments, here's a price prediction for HSY stock in 2030:

HSY stock is projected to reach $185-195 by 2030, representing a modest growth from current levels, primarily constrained by ongoing cocoa supply challenges and shifting consumer preferences toward healthier options. The conservative estimate factors in Hershey's strong brand portfolio and pricing power, but accounts for sustained pressure from record-high cocoa prices that hit $13,000 per metric ton in late 2024. The company's strategic shift into salty snacks and ability to pass costs to consumers supports long-term stability despite near-term headwinds.

HSY has a total of 18650 employees.