Stock Price & Analysis

Based on the provided data and recent market analysis, here's my assessment of VLO stock:

Technical Analysis

The stock is currently showing mixed technical signals:

• Trading at $138.62, above both 5-day MA ($136.91) and 10-day MA ($135.32)
• RSI-14 at 49.36 indicates neutral momentum
• MACD shows slight bullish divergence with 0.80, though histogram turning negative (-0.25)
• Currently trading at 0.40 of the Bollinger Band width, suggesting moderate volatility

Fundamental Analysis

Key financial metrics:

• Revenue declined 18% YoY to $144.8B in FY2023
• Net income decreased 23.3% to $8.8B
• Current ratio improved to 1.56 from 1.38 year-over-year
• Debt-to-equity ratio decreased to 40.4% from 45.68%

Analyst Consensus

Strong bullish sentiment from Wall Street:

• 15 Strong Buy ratings
• 2 Hold ratings
• 1 Strong Sell rating
• Mean price target: $151 (10.3% upside potential)
• Highest target: $164 (19.8% upside)

Recommendation

HOLD with a cautious bullish bias. While VLO shows strong fundamentals and analyst support, several factors suggest waiting for a better entry point:

1. Technical indicators show neutral momentum
2. Oil price volatility remains a concern
3. Recent earnings beat expectations but showed YoY decline
4. Strong analyst support provides downside protection

Consider entering on pullbacks closer to the 20-day moving average ($136.71) or wait for clearer technical confirmation of upward momentum.

Based on the provided data and market analysis, here is the price prediction for VLO stock in 2025:

Technical Analysis

Price Target Analysis

The consensus among Wall Street analysts points to a mean price target of $151 for VLO in 2025, representing a 10.3% upside from current levels, with a street-high target of $164 suggesting potential upside of 19.8%. However, technical indicators and market conditions suggest a more conservative outlook.

Key Factors Supporting the Prediction:

1. Operational Performance

• Record volumes of heavy sour crude processing in Q4 2024
• Capital investments of $2B planned for 2025, with $1.6B for sustaining business
• Strong dividend policy with recent 6% increase in quarterly cash dividend

2. Market Position

• Largest independent refiner in US with 15 refineries
• Total throughput capacity of 3.2 million barrels per day
• Strong presence in renewable diesel segment

2025 Price Prediction:

Based on technical analysis, fundamental factors, and analyst consensus, VLO stock is expected to trade in the range of $140-165 by end of 2025, with a base case target of $151. This projection is supported by:

• Strong operational metrics and capital investment plans
• Analyst consensus showing "Strong Buy" ratings (15 out of 18 analysts)
• Technical support levels and resistance zones
• Planned growth initiatives and margin improvement projects

The S1 support level for VLO Stock is $130.04 ,The R1 resistant level for VLO Stock is $138.89.

As of the end of day on 2025-02-26, the price of VLO Stock was $134.66.

The target price for VLO Stock according to analyst rating is 151.82, with the highest price target at 160.00 and the lowest at 138.00. Analysts have a Strong Buy rating on VLO Stock overall.

The market cap of VLO is $42.3B.

Based on the provided data and context, I'll analyze whether VLO is overvalued through multiple perspectives:

Valuation Metrics Analysis:

• Current P/E ratio of 5.21 (FY2023) is significantly below industry average
• EV/EBITDA of 3.42 indicates efficient operations and attractive valuation
• Price-to-Sales ratio of 0.32 suggests the stock is trading at a discount to revenues
• Price-to-Book ratio of 1.64 is reasonable for the refining sector

Technical Analysis:

• Trading at $138.62, between SMA200 ($140.65) and SMA60 ($132.38)
• RSI-14 at 49.36 indicates neutral momentum
• Currently trading at 40% of its Bollinger Band range, suggesting balanced risk/reward
• MACD showing slight bearish divergence with -0.25 histogram

Recent Performance:

• Q4 2023 earnings beat expectations with EPS of $0.64 vs $0.07 consensus
• Revenue declined 13.2% YoY but still exceeded analyst estimates
• Maintains strong balance sheet with $4.65B cash position
• Recently increased quarterly dividend by 5.6% to $1.13 per share

Analyst Consensus:

• Mean price target of $156.40 implies ~13% upside potential
• 15 Strong Buy ratings out of 18 analysts
• Recent price targets range from $140 to $165
• Analysts expect EPS of $7.92 for FY2025, representing a 6.6% YoY decline

Based on these factors, VLO is NOT overvalued at current levels, supported by strong fundamentals, healthy balance sheet, and attractive valuation metrics relative to peers and historical averages.

Valero Energy Corporation, through its subsidiaries, is a multinational manufacturer and marketer of petroleum-based and low-carbon liquid transportation fuels, and petrochemical products. The Company sells its products primarily in the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom, Ireland and Latin America. The Company operates through three segments: Refining, Renewable Diesel, and Ethanol. The Refining segment includes the operations of its petroleum refineries, the associated activities to market its refined petroleum products, and the logistics assets that support those operations. The Renewable Diesel segment includes the operations of Diamond Green Diesel (DGD) and the associated activities to market renewable diesel and renewable naphtha. The Ethanol segment includes the operations of its ethanol plants and the associated activities to market its ethanol and co-products. The Company owns over 15 petroleum refineries located in the United States, Canada and the United Kingdom.

Based on the available data and market analysis, here's a projection for Valero Energy (VLO) stock price in 2030:

Technical Analysis

Fundamental and Growth Analysis

Valero Energy's current fundamentals show:

• EPS forecast for 2025: $7.92 (6.6% decline)
• Strong analyst consensus rating of "Strong Buy" with 15 out of 18 analysts giving this rating
• Mean price target of $151 (10.3% upside from current levels)

2030 Price Prediction

Based on the analysis of current trends, industry dynamics, and company fundamentals, VLO stock is projected to reach $195-205 by 2030. This projection is supported by:

1. Strong refining margins and operational efficiency improvements
2. Strategic investments in renewable diesel capacity
3. Continued market leadership position as the largest independent refiner in the US

The price target assumes:

• Average annual growth rate of 7-8%
• Continued dividend growth
• Successful execution of renewable energy transition plans

VLO has a total of 9886 employees.