Stock Price & Analysis

Based on the recent data and market analysis, here is a concise assessment of HWM stock:

Technical Analysis

• HWM experienced a significant drop of -6.22% to $129.83 on Friday, marking its second consecutive day of losses
• The stock is currently trading between its key Fibonacci support level at $124.92 and resistance at $138.54
• Volume increased on falling prices, which could be an early warning signal

Fundamental Outlook

• Q4 2024 earnings beat expectations with revenue up 9% YoY to $1.89B
• Management provided cautious 2025 guidance, citing:
  • Boeing 737-MAX production at ~25 aircraft/month
  • Airbus A320 at mid-50s/month
  • Continued growth expected in defense aerospace and industrial markets

Recent Developments

• Commercial aerospace segment remains strong with rising OEM production rates
• Engine spares demand shows healthy growth
• Commercial transportation market expected to remain soft until H2 2025

Analyst Consensus

• Out of 21 analysts covering HWM:
  • 17 Strong Buy ratings
  • 1 Moderate Buy
  • 2 Hold
  • 1 Strong Sell
• Mean price target of $125.77

Recommendation: HOLD. While HWM's long-term fundamentals remain solid with strong aerospace demand, the recent price decline and increased volume suggest potential near-term weakness. Wait for price stabilization before considering new positions.

Based on the available data and recent market developments, here's a price prediction analysis for HWM stock in 2025:

Current Market Position

Technical Analysis

• Current Price: $130.99 (Pre-market)
• Fibonacci Levels:
  • Resistance R1: $138.54
  • Resistance R2: $142.75
  • Resistance R3: $149.56
  • Support S1: $124.92
  • Support S2: $120.71
  • Support S3: $113.89
  • Pivot: $131.73

Fundamental Drivers According to recent earnings report, HWM demonstrated strong performance with:

• Q4 2024 revenue growth of 9% YoY to $1.89 billion
• Commercial aerospace sales up 13%
• Adjusted EPS of $0.74, beating estimates
• Strong cash position with $564 million balance

2025 Company Guidance

• Revenue: $7.93-8.13 billion
• Adjusted EPS: $3.13-3.21
• Adjusted EBITDA margin: ~26.5%

Market Performance

• YTD 2025: +15.6%
• Past 52 weeks: +119%
• Significantly outperforming S&P 500 and Aerospace & Defense sector

Price Target Prediction for 2025 Based on the technical and fundamental analysis:

• Base Case: $145 (Street-high target), representing 14.7% upside
• Bull Case: $155-160, driven by stronger than expected commercial aerospace recovery
• Bear Case: $120-125, if Boeing/Airbus production rates remain constrained

The most likely scenario points to a price target of $145 by end of 2025, supported by:

1. Strong commercial aerospace demand
2. Healthy engine spares growth of 20-25% YoY
3. Continued defense aerospace market expansion
4. Solid margin expansion trajectory

The S1 support level for HWM Stock is $125.31 ,The R1 resistant level for HWM Stock is $138.94.

As of the end of day on 2025-02-28, the price of HWM Stock was $134.23.

The target price for HWM Stock according to analyst rating is 145.21, with the highest price target at 155.00 and the lowest at 130.00. Analysts have a Strong Buy rating on HWM Stock overall.

The market cap of HWM is $54.0B.

Based on the provided data and recent market developments, I'll analyze whether HWM is overvalued:

Technical Analysis HWM is currently trading at $65.73, showing strong momentum with RSI-14 at 53.72, indicating neutral territory. The stock is trading above all major moving averages (5-day: $135.55, 20-day: $129.18, 200-day: $100.67), suggesting a robust uptrend.

Valuation Assessment

• Forward P/E (2025E): 20.5x (based on midpoint EPS guidance of $3.17)
• EV/EBITDA (2023): 17.0x
• P/S (2023): 3.39x
• P/B (2023): 5.57x

Growth & Profitability

• Q4 2024 revenue grew 9% YoY to $1.89B
• Adjusted EBITDA margin expanded to 26.8% from 23% YoY
• Strong free cash flow generation of $977M in 2024

Market Position The company maintains leading positions in:

• Commercial Aerospace (48.6% of revenue)
• Transportation (21.1%)
• Defense (15.3%)
• Industrial (15.0%)

Conclusion HWM is not overvalued considering its:

1. Strong market position in growing aerospace sector
2. Expanding margins and robust cash flow generation
3. Solid order backlog supporting future growth
4. Conservative guidance accounting for Boeing/Airbus production uncertainties
5. Trading at reasonable multiples given its growth profile and margin expansion

Howmet Aerospace Inc. is a provider of advanced engineered solutions for the aerospace and transportation industries. The Company’s segments include Engine Products, Fastening Systems, Engineered Structures and Forged Wheels. The Engine Products segment utilizes advanced designs and techniques to support engine programs and produces components for aircraft engines and industrial gas turbines. The Fastening Systems segment produces aerospace and industrial fastening systems, as well as commercial transportation fasteners and installation tools. The Engineered Structures segment produces titanium ingots and mill products for aerospace and defense applications and is vertically integrated to produce titanium forgings, extrusions, forming and machining services for airframe, wing, aero-engine, and landing gear components. The Forged Wheels segment manufactures forged aluminum wheels for trucks, buses, and trailers and related products for the global commercial transportation market.

Based on recent financial data and market analysis, Howmet Aerospace (HWM) stock is projected to reach $195-205 by 2030, representing a ~50% upside from current levels. This forecast is supported by the company's strong position in commercial aerospace recovery, with rising OEM production rates and healthy engine spares demand. The continued growth in defense aerospace markets and HWM's $1 billion+ backlog of orders provides solid revenue visibility for sustained long-term growth.

HWM has a total of 23200 employees.