Based on the provided data and current market context, here's a comprehensive analysis of HWM's valuation:
Current Market Position
HWM is currently trading at $128.85 in pre-market with a +0.90% change . The stock has shown significant momentum, gaining 119% over the past year compared to the S&P 500's 20.9% return.
Valuation Metrics Analysis
Looking at Q3 2024 metrics:
- P/E: 38.38x
- EV/EBITDA: 24.09x
- P/S: 5.67x
- P/B: 9.18x
- Dividend Yield: 5.51%
These multiples indicate HWM is trading at premium valuations compared to historical levels, with significant increases across all metrics from Q1 to Q3 2024.
Technical Analysis
- RSI(14) at 62.16 indicates the stock is approaching overbought territory but hasn't reached extreme levels
- MACD at 3.26 shows positive momentum
- Trading above both 20-day (124.53) and 60-day (117.64) SMAs, indicating strong uptrend
Analyst Consensus
Recent analyst actions support current valuation levels:
- Truist Securities maintained Strong Buy with $130 PT (January 2024)
- Wells Fargo maintains Buy with $132 PT
- B of A Securities has a Strong Buy with $135 PT
- Barclays maintains Buy with $130 PT
Conclusion
HWM appears to be overvalued based on traditional metrics, but this premium valuation is supported by:
- Strong aerospace market momentum
- Robust analyst confidence with multiple Buy ratings
- Solid technical indicators showing continued momentum
- Strong market position in commercial aerospace with over 50% revenue exposure
- Expected 44.6% EPS growth for FY2024