Should I Buy VLO? VLO 2026 Analysis

Should You Buy Valero Energy Corp (VLO) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Conclusion

Buy

Latest Price

182.490

1 Day change

-0.83%

52 Week Range

194.500

Analysis Updated At

2026/01/26

Valero Energy Corp (VLO) is a good buy for a beginner investor with a long-term strategy and $50,000-$100,000 available for investment. The stock shows strong financial performance, positive technical indicators, and promising catalysts such as increased dividends and discounted Venezuelan crude purchases. Despite mixed analyst ratings, the overall outlook supports a buy decision.

Technical Analysis

The technical indicators are bullish. The MACD is positive and contracting, RSI is neutral at 62.788, and moving averages are bullish (SMA_5 > SMA_20 > SMA_200). The stock is trading above its pivot level of 185.833 with resistance levels at 191.949 and 195.727, suggesting potential for upward movement.

Options Data

Neutral

Open Interest Put-Call Ratio

Bullish

Option Volume Put-Call Ratio

Technical Summary

Sell

Buy

Positive Catalysts

Quarterly dividend increased by 6.2% to $1.20 per share.
Discounted Venezuelan crude purchases, which could improve margins.
Strong Q3 financial performance with significant YoY growth in net income (+200.83%), EPS (+209.65%), and gross margin (+142.04%).

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

Mixed analyst ratings with some downgrades citing weaker refining margins and above-peer valuation.
Potential bearish crude outlook for 2026, as noted by analysts.

Financial Performance

In Q3 2025, Valero reported a revenue decline of -2.15% YoY to $32.17 billion. However, net income surged by 200.83% YoY to $1.09 billion, EPS increased by 209.65% to $3.53, and gross margin improved by 142.04% to 5.47%. This indicates strong profitability despite a slight revenue drop.

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

Analyst ratings are mixed. Recent upgrades include Scotiabank raising the price target to $178 and Mizuho increasing it to $197. However, there are downgrades from Piper Sandler, Mizuho, and BofA citing valuation concerns and potential margin pressures. The average price target remains above the current price, suggesting potential upside.

17 Analyst Rating

Wall Street analysts forecast VLO stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for VLO is 186.56 USD with a low forecast of 149 USD and a high forecast of 223 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

11 Buy

6 Hold

0 Sell

Moderate Buy

Current: 184.020

Low

149

Averages

186.56

High

223

Current: 184.020

Low

149

Averages

186.56

High

223

Morgan Stanley

Equal Weight

maintain

$175 -> $180

AI Analysis

2026-01-27

New

Reason

Morgan Stanley

Price Target

$175 -> $180

AI Analysis

2026-01-27

New

maintain

Equal Weight

Reason

Morgan Stanley raised the firm's price target on Valero to $180 from $175 and keeps an Equal Weight rating on the shares. Refining stocks have risen by about 10% year-to-date on the back of widening light/heavy differentials following the recent Venezuela events, the analyst noted. Updating for the latest forward cracks, the firm's Q1 EPS estimates for its large-cap refiner coverage are about 5%-10% below consensus on average, the analyst tells investors in a Q4 preview for the group. On a long-term basis, the firm remains constructive on the refining outlook, but it reiterates an In-Line industry view driven by valuation.

Scotiabank

Outperform

maintain

$149 -> $178

2026-01-16

Reason

Scotiabank

Price Target

$149 -> $178

2026-01-16

maintain

Outperform

Reason

Scotiabank raised the firm's price target on Valero to $178 from $149 and keeps an Outperform rating on the shares. The firm is updating its price targets for U.S. Integrated Oil, Refining, and Large Cap Exploration & Production, E&P, stocks under its coverage, the analyst tells investors. Scotiabank expects earnings for the quarter to be straightforward due to the absence of major winter weather disruptions. Additionally, looking ahead, the firm expects investors to focus on whether recent market turmoil will cause changes to 2026 guidance and if any E&P companies will adopt cost reduction programs.

Unlock Full Analyst Thesis， Get the complete breakdown of rating reason for VLO

Unlock Now

VLO Should I Buy

VLO Should I Buy

Should You Buy Valero Energy Corp (VLO) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Technical Analysis

Options Data

Technical Summary

Positive Catalysts

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

Financial Performance

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

People Also Watch