Stock Price & Analysis

Based on the provided data and recent market developments, here's a comprehensive analysis of PGR stock:

Technical Analysis

The stock is currently showing mixed signals. PGR closed at $243.68 on January 17, with RSI at 49.39 indicating neutral momentum. The stock has been trading in a range between $228-$247 over the past two weeks, suggesting consolidation.

Recent Catalysts & Impact The Los Angeles wildfires are significantly impacting the insurance sector, with total damage estimates reaching $250B-$275B. While Progressive is expected to face some exposure, analysts indicate that as a middle market national insurance underwriter, Progressive shouldn't be too heavily exposed compared to high-net-worth focused insurers.

Analyst Outlook Recent analyst actions show mixed but generally positive sentiment:

• BofA Securities: Maintained Buy rating with $322 price target
• Keefe, Bruyette & Woods: Maintains Buy with $294 target
• Barclays: Hold rating with $261 target, citing tougher property coverage cycle

Financial Impact

• Expected Q4 catastrophe losses of $340 million
• Projected Q1 2025 catastrophe losses of $584 million, including $90 million from California wildfires
• Upcoming earnings report on January 29, with analysts expecting EPS of $3.52 and revenue of $18.357 billion

Recommendation SELL. While Progressive remains fundamentally strong, the combination of:

1. Recent price weakness
2. Upcoming significant catastrophe losses
3. Technical indicators showing neutral momentum
4. Near-term headwinds from California wildfires

suggests better entry points may emerge in the coming weeks.

Based on the provided data and context, here's the analysis for PGR stock price prediction in 2025:

Progressive (PGR) is expected to reach $310-320 by end of 2025, representing approximately 27% upside from current levels, driven by strong underwriting profitability and market share gains in personal auto insurance. The recent California wildfire losses are expected to be manageable at $90 million in Q1 2025, significantly lower compared to peers.

The bullish price target is supported by:

1. Strong Q4 2024 earnings expectations of $3.52 per share and revenue of $18.36 billion, showing continued momentum in premium growth and underwriting margins.

2. Progressive's digital-first strategy and superior risk selection capabilities position it well to gain market share, with personal lines policies in force growing 15% year-over-year.

3. The company's combined ratio of 89% indicates strong underwriting profitability despite catastrophe losses, demonstrating effective risk management.

The S1 support level for PGR Stock is $231.51 ,The R1 resistant level for PGR Stock is $245.56.

As of the end of day on 2025-01-24, the price of PGR Stock was $239.99.

The target price for PGR Stock according to analyst rating is 284.94, with the highest price target at 339.00 and the lowest at 237.00. Analysts have a Strong Buy rating on PGR Stock overall.

The market cap of PGR is $139.9B.

Based on the provided data, here's a concise analysis of PGR's valuation:

Technical Analysis The stock is currently trading at $245.51, showing a slight decline of -0.76% in the last regular market session. The RSI-14 at 49.39 indicates neutral momentum, while the MACD at -2.10 suggests a slightly bearish short-term trend.

Valuation Metrics Progressive's valuation metrics for Q3 2024:

• P/E: 18.45x
• EV/EBITDA: 14.37x
• P/S: 2.07x
• P/B: 5.47x
• Dividend Yield: 0.45%

Recent Events Impact The Los Angeles wildfires are expected to significantly impact Progressive's financials. BofA anticipates $340 million in catastrophe losses for Q4 2024 and projects $584 million in Q1 2025 losses, including $90 million from the California wildfires. Despite these headwinds, BofA maintains a Buy rating while adjusting the price target downward from $339 to $322.

Conclusion Based on the current valuation metrics and recent events, PGR appears fairly valued to slightly overvalued. The P/E ratio of 18.45x is above historical averages, and the expected catastrophe losses could pressure near-term earnings. However, the company's strong market position and BofA's maintained Buy rating suggest long-term resilience despite current headwinds.

The Progressive Corporation is an insurance holding company, which has insurance and non-insurance subsidiaries and affiliates. The Company’s segments include Personal Lines, Commercial Lines, Property and Other indemnity. The Personal Lines segment writes insurance for personal autos and recreational vehicles. The segment consists of personal auto and special lines products. Commercial Lines segment writes auto-related liability and physical damage insurance, business-related general liability and property insurance predominately for small businesses, and workers’ compensation insurance primarily for the transportation industry. Property segment writes residential property and renters’ insurance in virtually all states, primarily in the independent agency channel and through select agents under its Platinum program. The regulated programs include several mandatory state pools, such as the Michigan Catastrophic Claims Association, Florida Hurricane Catastrophe Fund and others.

Based on the current market data and analysis, Progressive (PGR) stock is projected to reach $375 by 2030, driven by its strong market position in insurance sector and consistent revenue growth of 19-20% annually. The company's successful AI implementation in claims processing and expanding commercial customer base could push the stock even higher to $400 if market conditions remain favorable. However, considering potential economic uncertainties and insurance industry cyclicality, a conservative estimate would be $350.

PGR has a total of 61400 employees.