Stock Price & Analysis

Based on the provided data and recent market activity, here's a concise analysis of PGR stock:

Technical Analysis

The stock is showing bullish momentum with RSI-14 at 68.71 indicating strong but not overbought conditions. The MACD (5.87) is positive with a bullish crossover, suggesting upward momentum.

Price Action

• Current price: $266.19 (as of Feb 21, 2025)
• Recent trading range: $265.75 - $269.09
• Volume: 2.57M shares traded

Fibonacci Levels

• Resistance R1: $268.50
• Resistance R2: $273.76
• Support S1: $251.48
• Support S2: $246.22
• Pivot: $259.99

Recent News Impact According to recent reports, Progressive (PGR) was eliminated from the list of "shared favorites" during Q4 2024 among hedge funds and mutual funds. However, this hasn't significantly impacted the stock's technical strength.

Recommendation: SELL

Rationale:

1. The stock is approaching key resistance at $268.50
2. Recent institutional repositioning suggests potential selling pressure
3. Current price shows signs of short-term exhaustion near resistance levels

Based on the provided data and context, I'll analyze PGR's price prediction for 2025.

Technical Analysis

The technical indicators show:

• RSI-14 at 68.71 indicates approaching but not yet overbought conditions
• MACD (12,26,9) is positive with values of 5.87 (MACD), 1.74 (Signal), showing bullish momentum
• Stochastic RSI (14,14,3,3) at 82.29 suggests strong momentum
• Price is trading above all major moving averages (5,10,20,60,200,250), indicating a strong uptrend

Fundamental Drivers

• Progressive was removed from the "shared favorites" list of hedge funds and mutual funds in Q4 2024, suggesting some institutional repositioning
• Recent analyst consensus shows strong optimism with an average price target of $286.55, ranging from $237 to $335
• Out of 11 analysts covering PGR, 9 maintain bullish ratings while 2 remain neutral

Price Target Analysis Based on multiple factors:

1. Technical Levels:

• Support: $251.48 (Fibonacci S1)
• Resistance: $268.50 (Fibonacci R1)
• Strong resistance: $273.76 (Fibonacci R2)

2. Analyst Consensus:

• Average target: $286.55
• High target: $335.00
• Low target: $237.00

2025 Price Prediction Based on technical strength, analyst sentiment, and current market conditions, PGR is likely to reach $285-290 by end of 2025, representing about 7-9% upside from current levels ($266.19). This prediction is supported by:

• Strong technical uptrend with positive momentum indicators
• Analyst consensus targets averaging $286.55
• Solid fundamental performance with improving margins

The S1 support level for PGR Stock is $252.79 ,The R1 resistant level for PGR Stock is $276.73.

As of the end of day on 2025-02-26, the price of PGR Stock was $278.03.

The target price for PGR Stock according to analyst rating is 287.64, with the highest price target at 333.00 and the lowest at 237.00. Analysts have a Strong Buy rating on PGR Stock overall.

The market cap of PGR is $163.3B.

Based on the provided financial data and market analysis, here's a concise assessment of PGR's valuation:

Progressive Corp (PGR) appears overvalued at the current price of $266.19. The company's significant revenue growth from $49.6B in 2022 to $62.1B in 2023 and impressive net income increase from $694.6M to $3.86B demonstrate strong operational performance. However, several key factors suggest overvaluation:

The stock's ROE improved dramatically from 4.19% to 21.97% year-over-year, while net margin expanded from 1.46% to 6.29%, indicating enhanced operational efficiency. Despite these improvements, the current valuation metrics suggest stretched levels compared to historical averages and industry peers.

The debt-to-equity ratio decreased from 40.2% to 33.97%, showing improved financial health, but this improvement appears already priced into the stock. Recent analyst consensus price target of $286.55 suggests limited upside potential from current levels.

Market sentiment remains cautiously optimistic with 8 somewhat bullish and 2 indifferent ratings out of 11 analysts, but this positive outlook seems fully reflected in the current price.

The Progressive Corporation is an insurance holding company, which has insurance and non-insurance subsidiaries and affiliates. The Company’s segments include Personal Lines, Commercial Lines, Property and Other indemnity. The Personal Lines segment writes insurance for personal autos and recreational vehicles. The segment consists of personal auto and special lines products. Commercial Lines segment writes auto-related liability and physical damage insurance, business-related general liability and property insurance predominately for small businesses, and workers’ compensation insurance primarily for the transportation industry. Property segment writes residential property and renters’ insurance in virtually all states, primarily in the independent agency channel and through select agents under its Platinum program. The regulated programs include several mandatory state pools, such as the Michigan Catastrophic Claims Association, Florida Hurricane Catastrophe Fund and others.

Based on the available data and analysis, here is the price prediction for Progressive (PGR) stock by 2030:

Progressive stock is projected to reach $425-450 by 2030, representing a ~70% upside from current levels around $266. The forecast is supported by Progressive's strong market position in auto insurance, consistent earnings growth (16.22% YoY increase expected), and robust ROE of 37.3%. The company's digital-first approach and expansion into homeowners insurance provide additional growth catalysts.

The target assumes Progressive maintains its industry-leading combined ratio and benefits from rising insurance premiums amid inflationary pressures. Recent analyst consensus shows a "Moderate Buy" rating with 15 Strong Buy ratings, indicating strong institutional confidence in the company's long-term prospects.

PGR has a total of 61400 employees.