PGR Earnings Prediction
The chart below shows how PGR performed 10 days before and after its earnings report, based on data from the past quarters. Typically, PGR sees a -0.13% change in stock price 10 days leading up to the earnings, and a +1.34% change 10 days following the report. On the earnings day itself, the stock moves by -0.43%. This data can give you a slight idea of what to expect for the next quarter's release.
PGR Key Earning Data
2024/Q4
Year Over Year
Quarter Over Quarter
Total Revenue
19.71B
26.74%
8.74%
Gross Margin
--
--
--
Operating Margin
15.29%
60.78%
43.57%
Net Margin
11.84%
64.22%
47.08%
EPS
3.97
110.05%
60.08%
No Data Available
PGR Earnings Analysis
Progressive Corporation Corporation (PGR.N) Earnings Conference Call
Positive
Historic Policy Addition: 1. Record Policy Growth: Progressive added almost 1.6 million policies in force during Q3 2024, marking the highest quarterly addition in the company's history, bringing the total for the year to nearly 4.2 million policies.
Record Media Investment: 2. Increased Media Spending: The company reported spending more on media in Q3 2024 than in any other quarter, resulting in the highest number of direct channel prospects ever recorded, surpassing the previous record set in Q2 2024.
Strong Profit Margins: 3. Strong Combined Ratio: Progressive's year-to-date combined ratio through Q3 2024 was very strong, indicating robust profit margins despite the challenges posed by Hurricane Milton.
Loss Ratio Improvement: 4. Improved Loss Ratios: The company achieved its third consecutive quarter of improvement in the loss and LAE ratio for Commercial Lines, reflecting the effectiveness of rate increases implemented in 2023.
Effective Risk Adjustment Strategies: 5. Successful Risk Adjustment: Progressive reported a 19% growth in policies in force in less volatile weather-related states, demonstrating effective risk adjustment strategies in response to recent hurricanes.
Negative
Loss Ratios Impact Profitability: 1. Increased Loss Ratios: The company reported a 21-point loss incurred from Hurricane Helene, contributing to a combined ratio of 78.5 in the Property segment, indicating pressure on profitability despite favorable development from earlier storms.
Customer Loyalty Challenges: 2. Declining Retention Rates: The trailing 12-month retention rate (T12) was flat, and the three-month retention (T3) was down, reflecting challenges in maintaining customer loyalty amidst competitive pressures.
Rising Claims Costs: 3. High Claims Costs: The frequency of bodily injury claims has increased, with higher large losses and soft tissue injuries leading to elevated costs, exacerbated by social inflation and rising medical expenses.
Volatile Weather Impact: 4. Underperformance in Volatile States: The company experienced a 9% decrease in policies in force in states with volatile weather, highlighting the risks associated with its Property business in these regions.
Media Spending Impact: 5. Increased Media Spending Without Immediate Returns: Despite record media spending in Q3, the effectiveness of this investment may diminish if competition increases, potentially impacting future growth and profitability.
PGR FAQs
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PGR Earning Call Sentiment
The Progressive Corporation (PGR) Q3 2024 Earnings Call Transcript
1.0x
00:00
00:00
PGR.N
3.39%Positive
The earnings call summary reflects strong financial performance, with record policy additions and improved combined ratios, especially in property. While economic and weather-related risks are acknowledged, the company has effective strategies in place to mitigate them. The Q&A section reveals a positive outlook with bullish growth expectations for 2025, stable margins, and effective advertising strategies. However, lack of specific details on share repurchase plans and unclear responses about hurricane impacts slightly temper the sentiment. Overall, the stock is likely to experience a positive movement in the short term.