TJX Earnings Prediction
The chart below shows how TJX performed 10 days before and after its earnings report, based on data from the past quarters. Typically, TJX sees a -3.90% change in stock price 10 days leading up to the earnings, and a -0.20% change 10 days following the report. On the earnings day itself, the stock moves by +2.84%. This data can give you a slight idea of what to expect for the next quarter's release.
TJX Key Earning Data
TJX Earnings Analysis
Positive
Comp Sales Growth: Overall comp sales growth of 5% driven by strong increases in customer transactions across all divisions.
Sales Milestone Achievement: Full year sales surpassed $56 billion, marking a significant milestone for the company.
Comp Store Sales Growth: Comp store sales growth of 4% for the full year, indicating strong customer engagement and market share growth.
Pre-Tax Profit Margin Increase: Pre-tax profit margin increased to 11.5%, reflecting effective cost management and operational efficiency.
Earnings Per Share Increase: Diluted earnings per share rose to $4.26, a 13% increase from the previous year, showcasing strong profitability.
International Sales Growth: Strong performance in international divisions, with TJX Canada comp sales increasing 10% and TJX International up 7%.
Gross Margin Improvement: Gross margin improved to 30.6%, driven by strong mark-on and lower freight costs, indicating effective inventory management.
Strong Liquidity Position: Operating cash flow of $6.1 billion and $5.3 billion in cash at year-end, demonstrating strong liquidity and financial health.
Store Expansion Strategy: Plans to open 130 net new stores in fiscal 2026, indicating confidence in growth opportunities.
Shareholder Return Commitment: Commitment to return $4.1 billion to shareholders through buybacks and dividends, reflecting strong cash generation and shareholder value focus.
Negative
Sales Growth Outlook: Consolidated sales growth is expected to be lower than previous year due to unfavorable foreign exchange rates, which are projected to have a 1% negative impact on consolidated sales growth.
Pre-Tax Profit Margin Decline: Pre-tax profit margin guidance for fiscal 2026 is expected to decline by 10 to 20 basis points compared to last year, indicating potential profitability challenges ahead.
Gross Margin Decline Forecast: Gross margin is projected to decrease by 10 to 20 basis points in fiscal 2026, primarily due to unfavorable transactional foreign exchange and inventory hedges, suggesting pressure on profit margins.
Rising SG&A Expenses: SG&A expenses are expected to rise to 19.3%, up 10 basis points from last year, driven by incremental wage and payroll costs, which could impact overall profitability.
Earnings Per Share Decline: First quarter diluted earnings per share are expected to decline to a range of $0.87 to $0.89, down from $0.93 in the previous year, indicating a potential slowdown in earnings growth.
Pre-Tax Profit Margin Decline: The company anticipates a decrease in pre-tax profit margin for the first quarter, down 100 to 110 basis points compared to last year, which may reflect operational challenges or increased costs.
TJX FAQs
How does TJX typically perform around its earnings report dates?
TJX's stock performance around earnings reports can vary, but historical data shows specific patterns, such as a -3.90% change leading up to the report and a -0.20% change in the 10 days following the release.
