ARM Earnings Prediction
The chart below shows how ARM performed 10 days before and after its earnings report, based on data from the past quarters. Typically, ARM sees a -0.12% change in stock price 10 days leading up to the earnings, and a +12.17% change 10 days following the report. On the earnings day itself, the stock moves by +3.52%. This data can give you a slight idea of what to expect for the next quarter's release.
ARM Key Earning Data
2024/Q4
Year Over Year
Quarter Over Quarter
Total Revenue
983.00M
19.30%
16.47%
Gross Margin
97.15%
1.59%
0.98%
Operating Margin
17.80%
4.77%
134.83%
Net Margin
25.64%
142.80%
102.21%
EPS
0.24
200.00%
140.00%
No Data Available
ARM Earnings Analysis
Arm Holdings PLC Corporation (ARM.O) Earnings Conference Call
Positive
Record Revenue Growth: Total revenue grew 19% year-on-year to an all-time high of $983 million, exceeding the high-end of guidance.
Record Royalty Revenue Growth: Royalty revenue reached a record $580 million, growing 23% year-on-year, driven by strong adoption of Armv9 and CSS technologies.
Licensing Revenue Surge: Licensing revenue increased 14% year-on-year to $403 million, outperforming forecasts and reflecting strong long-term commitments from partners.
ACV Growth Analysis: Annualized contract value (ACV) in Q3 was up 9% year-on-year, indicating solid underlying licensing growth despite slight fluctuations.
Revenue Guidance Increase: For fiscal year 2025, the midpoint of full-year revenue guidance was increased to around $4 billion, representing a 24% year-on-year growth, ahead of the long-term target of 20%.
Negative
Record Operating Expenses: Non-GAAP operating expenses reached a record $522 million in Q3, reflecting heightened R&D spending, indicating a significant increase in cost management challenges.
RPO Decrease Impacts Revenue: Remaining performance obligations (RPO) decreased slightly sequentially, suggesting potential revenue recognition issues as backlog revenue was delivered into the P&L.
ACV Growth Slowdown: Annualized contract value (ACV) growth was only 9% year-on-year, lower than the recent run-rate of low-teens, indicating a slowdown in licensing growth momentum.
Revenue Guidance Uncertainty: Despite record total revenue of $983 million, the guidance for Q4 includes a wide range due to uncertainty in large licensed deals, highlighting potential volatility in future revenue streams.
Rising Operating Expenses: Full-year non-GAAP operating expenses are expected to rise by 21% year-on-year to approximately $2.1 billion, indicating increasing cost pressures that may impact profitability.
ARM FAQs
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ARM Earning Call Sentiment
Arm Holdings plc American Depositary Shares (NASDAQ:ARM) Q3 2025 Earnings Call Transcript
ARM.O
1.08%Positive
The earnings call reflects strong financial performance with a 19% revenue increase and record royalty revenue. Positive sentiment is supported by optimistic guidance, particularly in AI and CSS markets. Despite risks like regulatory and economic factors, management's confidence in future growth and strategic focus on R&D and AI projects like Stargate and Cristal Intelligence are encouraging. The lack of a share repurchase program is a minor drawback, but overall, the strong earnings and guidance suggest a positive stock price movement over the next two weeks.
