ARM Earnings Prediction
The chart below shows how ARM performed 10 days before and after its earnings report, based on data from the past quarters. Typically, ARM sees a -2.65% change in stock price 10 days leading up to the earnings, and a +10.22% change 10 days following the report. On the earnings day itself, the stock moves by +3.17%. This data can give you a slight idea of what to expect for the next quarter's release.
ARM Key Earning Data
ARM Earnings Analysis
Positive
Record-Breaking Q4 Revenue: Q4 revenue exceeded $1 billion for the first time in Arm's history, marking a record-breaking close to a strong year.
Record Revenue Milestones: Full year revenue topped $4 billion and royalty revenue surpassed $2 billion, both firsts for the company.
Royalty Revenue Surge: Record royalty revenue of $607 million in Q4, reflecting the growing value of every chip shipped with Arm inside.
Record Licensing Revenue: Licensing revenue hit an all-time high of $634 million, driven by new deals including a multi-year AI partnership with the Malaysian government.
AI Cloud Deployment Trends: Arm is increasingly the first choice for AI cloud deployments, with expectations that up to 50% of new server chips at hyperscalers will be Arm-based this year.
Custom Silicon Demand Surge: Strong momentum in custom silicon with companies turning to Arm for CPU, GPU, and NPU solutions, driving both license and royalty growth.
Smartphone Royalty Surge: Smartphone royalties jumped 30% year-on-year, significantly outpacing the modest 2% growth in shipments, indicating rising value per device.
Armv9 Edge AI Platform Launch: Launched the first Armv9 edge AI platform, adopted by leaders like Infineon, NXP, Renesas, Qualcomm, and STMicroelectronics.
Automotive CSS License Agreement: Signed first automotive CSS license with a global EV leader, enabling custom silicon for next-gen vehicles, showcasing diversification into automotive.
Developer Community Support: Support for over 22 million developers, the largest community in the world, and Kleidi AI surpassing eight billion cumulative installs across Arm-based devices.
Negative
Lower Revenue Growth Guidance: Revenue growth guidance for Q1 2026 is lower than previous quarters, with expectations of only 12% year-on-year growth, indicating potential slowing demand.
Demand Uncertainty Risks: The company has less visibility into indirect impacts on end demand due to macroeconomic uncertainties, which could affect future performance.
RPO Decline Impacts Revenue: Remaining performance obligations (RPO) decreased sequentially, suggesting a potential decline in future revenue from previously signed licenses.
Rising Operating Expenses: Operating expenses are expected to rise significantly in Q1 2026 to approximately $625 million, which could pressure profit margins going forward.
Cautious Outlook on Guidance: The company has not provided full-year guidance due to uncertainties in the global trade and economic environment, indicating caution in their outlook.
ARM FAQs
How does ARM typically perform around its earnings report dates?
ARM's stock performance around earnings reports can vary, but historical data shows specific patterns, such as a -2.65% change leading up to the report and a +10.22% change in the 10 days following the release.
Is Arm Holdings PLC (ARM) Q4 2025 Earnings Call Summary positive or negative?
How can historical earnings data help predict future stock performance?
ARM Earning Call Sentiment
Arm Holdings plc American Depositary Shares (NASDAQ:ARM) Q4 2025 Earnings Call Transcript
ARM.O
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