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PGR Should I Buy

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Intellectia

Should You Buy Progressive Corp (PGR) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Conclusion
Hold
Latest Price
206.970
1 Day change
0.08%
52 Week Range
292.990
Analysis Updated At
2026/03/06
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Progressive Corp (PGR) is not a strong buy at the moment for a beginner investor with a long-term strategy. While the company's financial performance is solid with strong YoY growth in revenue, net income, and EPS, the lack of significant positive catalysts, neutral technical indicators, cautious sentiment from Congress trading data, and mixed analyst ratings suggest a hold position. The stock's pre-market price is slightly down, and no strong trading signals (AI Stock Picker or SwingMax) are present to indicate an immediate opportunity.

Technical Analysis

The MACD is above 0 and positively contracting, indicating a mild bullish signal. RSI is neutral at 55.195, and moving averages are converging, showing no clear trend. The stock is trading near a pivot level of 208.203, with resistance at 213.77 and support at 202.635. Overall, technical indicators suggest a neutral stance.

Options Data

Bullish
Open Interest Put-Call Ratio
Neutral
Option Volume Put-Call Ratio

The open interest put-call ratio indicates a bullish sentiment, but the option volume put-call ratio of 1.0 reflects balanced sentiment. Implied volatility is high at 30.06, with an IV percentile of 84.46, suggesting elevated uncertainty.

Technical Summary

StrongSellSellNeutralBuyStrongBuydotted line Image
Sell
7
Buy
4

Positive Catalysts

  • Strong financial performance in Q4 2025, with revenue up 12.19% YoY and net income up 25.23% YoY.

  • Consistent growth in personal auto policies-in-force, albeit slightly slower than prior months.

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

  • Congress trading data shows 4 sale transactions with no purchases, reflecting cautious sentiment.

  • Analysts have lowered price targets across the board, citing slower premium growth, competitive pressures, and lower net investment income.

  • Pre-market price is slightly down (-0.07%), and the broader market (S&P

  • is also down (-1.28%), indicating weak sentiment.

Financial Performance

Progressive Corp reported strong Q4 2025 financials: Revenue increased by 12.19% YoY to $22.738 billion, net income rose by 25.23% YoY to $2.951 billion, and EPS grew by 25.19% YoY to $5.02. This demonstrates robust growth and profitability.

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

Analyst sentiment is mixed. While several firms maintain Buy ratings, price targets have been lowered across the board, with the highest target now at $329 (down from $334) and the lowest at $214. Concerns include slower premium growth, competitive pressures, and lower net investment income.

Wall Street analysts forecast PGR stock price to rise
16 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast PGR stock price to rise
9 Buy
6 Hold
1 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 206.800
sliders
Low
214
Averages
257.11
High
328
Current: 206.800
sliders
Low
214
Averages
257.11
High
328
BofA
Buy
downgrade
$315 -> $308
AI Analysis
2026-03-10
New
Reason
BofA
Price Target
$315 -> $308
AI Analysis
2026-03-10
New
downgrade
Buy
Reason
BofA lowered the firm's price target on Progressive to $308 from $315 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. While the firm says it continues to be "very bullish" about Progressive's earnings and growth prospects, it trims its target in the face of a broad market decline.
UBS
Brian Meredith
Neutral
downgrade
$226 -> $218
2026-02-23
Reason
UBS
Brian Meredith
Price Target
$226 -> $218
2026-02-23
downgrade
Neutral
Reason
UBS analyst Brian Meredith lowered the firm's price target on Progressive to $218 from $226 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares.
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