Should I Buy PGR? PGR 2026 Analysis

Should You Buy Progressive Corp (PGR) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Conclusion

Hold

Latest Price

212.740

1 Day change

2.24%

52 Week Range

292.990

Analysis Updated At

2026/01/26

Progressive Corp (PGR) is not an optimal buy for a beginner, long-term investor at this moment. While the company has shown strong financial growth and has introduced new products like pet insurance, the technical indicators suggest bearish trends, and the stock is likely to decline in the short term. Additionally, recent analyst ratings and price target adjustments reflect mixed sentiment, with some downgrades and reduced price targets. Congress trading data shows positive sentiment, but this alone does not outweigh the technical and market challenges. For now, holding off on purchasing is recommended.

Technical Analysis

The technical indicators suggest a bearish trend. The MACD is negative and contracting, RSI is neutral at 42.718, and moving averages are bearish (SMA_200 > SMA_20 > SMA_5). Key support is at 200.347, with resistance at 207.563. The stock is trading below its pivot level, indicating downward pressure.

Options Data

Bullish

Open Interest Put-Call Ratio

Bullish

Option Volume Put-Call Ratio

Technical Summary

Sell

Buy

Positive Catalysts

Strong financial performance in Q3 2025, with revenue up 14.15% YoY and net income up 12.07% YoY.
Introduction of a new pet insurance product, which could drive additional revenue streams.
Congress trading data shows a positive bias, with more purchase transactions than sales.

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

Bearish technical indicators and a high likelihood of short-term price decline (-6.98% in the next month).
Mixed analyst sentiment, with recent downgrades and reduced price targets.
The P&C insurance sector is facing cyclical challenges, with softening pricing trends and increased competition.

Financial Performance

Progressive reported strong financial results for Q3 2025. Revenue increased by 14.15% YoY to $22.5 billion, net income rose by 12.07% YoY to $2.615 billion, and EPS grew by 12.09% YoY to $4.45. This reflects solid growth despite sector challenges.

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

Analyst sentiment is mixed. HSBC downgraded the stock to Hold with a $224 price target, while Barclays upgraded it to Overweight with a $265 target. Other firms like Evercore ISI and Goldman Sachs lowered their price targets, citing sector challenges and softening pricing trends. Overall, analysts are cautious about the stock's near-term prospects.

16 Analyst Rating

Wall Street analysts forecast PGR stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for PGR is 257.11 USD with a low forecast of 214 USD and a high forecast of 328 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

9 Buy

6 Hold

1 Sell

Moderate Buy

Current: 208.080

Low

214

Averages

257.11

High

328

Current: 208.080

Low

214

Averages

257.11

High

328

HSBC

Buy

Hold

downgrade

$224

AI Analysis

2026-01-16

Reason

HSBC

Price Target

$224

AI Analysis

2026-01-16

downgrade

Buy

Hold

Reason

HSBC downgraded Progressive to Hold from Buy with a $224 price target.

Barclays

Alex Scott

Equal Weight -> Overweight

upgrade

$257 -> $265

2026-01-08

Reason

Barclays

Alex Scott

Price Target

$257 -> $265

2026-01-08

upgrade

Equal Weight -> Overweight

Reason

Barclays analyst Alex Scott upgraded Progressive to Overweight from Equal Weight with a price target of $265, up from $257. The firm upgraded the shares as part of its 2026 outlook for the North America property and casualty Insurance group. Pricing is softening across commercial and reinsurance, while personal lines look relatively better and brokers face organic growth headwinds, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Barclays recommends staying selective. It expects Progressive's policy-in-force growth, supported by recent rate decreases, to come in above consensus expectations.

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PGR Should I Buy

PGR Should I Buy

Should You Buy Progressive Corp (PGR) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Technical Analysis

Options Data

Technical Summary

Positive Catalysts

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

Financial Performance

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

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