Based on the provided data and recent analyst reports, here's a price prediction analysis for RJF stock in 2025:
Technical Analysis
The stock is currently showing bearish momentum with RSI at 25.70 (oversold territory) and negative MACD divergence. The price has broken below both the 20-day SMA ($167.11) and 60-day SMA ($162.75), indicating strong downward pressure.
Price Target Analysis
Recent analyst price targets for 2025:
- TD Cowen: $160 (Hold rating)
- JMP Securities: $190 (Buy rating)
- Consensus target: $175.27
Key Drivers
- Market Environment
- Fed expected to implement two rate cuts in 2025
- S&P 500 projected median target of 6,600 (+9% from current levels)
- Company Fundamentals
- Strong Q1 2025 earnings: EPS $2.93 vs $2.69 consensus
- Revenue growth from wealth management and capital markets segments
- Negative insider sentiment with increased selling activity
Price Prediction Scenarios
Bullish Case ($190):
- Probability: 30%
- Driven by: Multiple rate cuts, strong wealth management growth, market rally
Base Case ($165-175):
- Probability: 50%
- Driven by: Moderate growth, two Fed rate cuts, stable margins
Bearish Case ($150):
- Probability: 20%
- Driven by: Delayed rate cuts, market correction, margin pressure
Conclusion
Based on technical indicators, analyst targets, and macro factors, RJF is most likely to trade in the $165-175 range by end of 2025, representing potential upside of 3-10% from current levels. The base case scenario has highest probability given balanced risk factors and company fundamentals.