Based on the provided data and recent market activity, here's a comprehensive analysis of whether GS is overvalued:
Technical Analysis
Valuation Analysis
Current Market Position
Goldman Sachs stock closed at $625.60, down 2.59% in the latest trading session. The stock has shown significant momentum, having risen 116% since November 2023.
Valuation Metrics and Profitability
- Net Income Q4 2024: $3.923 billion, showing strong profitability
- Net Margin: 13.89% in Q4 2024, demonstrating robust operational efficiency
- ROE remains solid at around 10.6%, slightly above peer average of 10.2%
- Current P/E ratio suggests premium valuation compared to historical averages
- Forward P/BV of 1.04x represents a slight discount to long-term average of 1.1x
Recent Performance Indicators
- Strong Q4 performance with EPS of $11.95
- Total revenue Q4 2024: $29.606 billion
- Gross margin improved to 40.52% in Q4 2024
- Debt-to-equity ratio at 545.90%, indicating high leverage typical for financial institutions
Analyst Sentiment
Recent analyst actions show mixed but generally positive sentiment:
- Wells Fargo raised PT to $720 (Buy rating)
- UBS increased PT to $640 (Hold rating)
- Morgan Stanley elevated PT to $782 (Overweight rating)
- Barclays boosted PT to $760 (Overweight rating)
Conclusion
Based on the comprehensive analysis, Goldman Sachs appears to be fairly valued to slightly overvalued at current levels. While the company demonstrates strong fundamental performance and profitability metrics, the current valuation multiples are trading at a premium to historical averages. The high debt-to-equity ratio and challenging market conditions in investment banking could pose near-term headwinds.