Stock Price & Analysis

Based on the provided data and recent analyst coverage, here's a concise analysis of ODFL's current situation:

Technical Analysis

The stock is currently trading at $190.86, showing mixed technical signals with an RSI of 52.81 indicating neutral momentum. The stock is trading above its 20-day moving average of $183.25, suggesting short-term upward momentum.

Recent Price Action & Market Sentiment

• Current price: $190.86 (as of Jan 24, 2025)
• Regular market change: -0.38%
• Post-market change: +0.04%
• Fibonacci support levels: S1 at $178.29, S2 at $174.20
• Fibonacci resistance levels: R1 at $191.53, R2 at $195.62

Analyst Consensus Recent analyst actions show a cautious stance:

• Stifel raised PT to $193 (Jan 23)
• Barclays lowered PT to $210 (Jan 17)
• BofA lowered PT to $204 (Jan 16)
• Susquehanna downgraded to Hold (Jan 7)

Key Concerns & Opportunities

• Analysts note the freight recession may be ending
• Market sentiment appears to be improving for transport stocks
• Company maintains strong operational metrics with 99% on-time service
• Stock is currently trading below most analyst price targets

Recommendation SELL. While ODFL is a quality operator, current valuation appears stretched given:

1. Multiple analyst downgrades/PT reductions in January 2025
2. Trading near technical resistance levels
3. Ongoing freight market softness
4. Stock has underperformed broader market indices

Based on the provided data and context, I'll analyze the price prediction for ODFL stock in 2025:

ODFL's stock price is expected to reach $195-202 by mid-2025, driven by the recovery in the trucking industry and potential benefits from lower interest rates. The company's strong operational efficiency and premium service positioning should help maintain margins despite current industry headwinds. Recent technical indicators show the stock trading near its Fibonacci resistance level of $195.62, suggesting potential upside momentum.

The S1 support level for ODFL Stock is $178.29 ,The R1 resistant level for ODFL Stock is $191.53.

As of the end of day on 2025-01-24, the price of ODFL Stock was $190.74.

The target price for ODFL Stock according to analyst rating is 202.19, with the highest price target at 237.00 and the lowest at 165.00. Analysts have a Hold rating on ODFL Stock overall.

The market cap of ODFL is $40.7B.

Based on the provided data and recent analyst reports, here's a comprehensive analysis of ODFL's valuation:

Current Valuation Metrics

• P/E (Q3 2024): 34.72x
• EV/EBITDA: 21.59x
• P/S: 7.30x
• P/B: 10.17x
• Dividend Yield: 0.49%

Market Performance & Technical Analysis The stock is currently trading below its recent highs, with analysts noting it's about 12.2% below its 52-week high of $233.26 reached on November 1, 2024. The stock has shown mixed performance compared to broader market indices.

Why ODFL Appears Overvalued:

1. Industry Comparison

• Trading at premium multiples compared to industry averages
• Recent Q3 2024 results showed revenue decline of 3% and net income drop of 9.1% year-over-year

2. Analyst Consensus

• Current consensus is "Hold" from 20 analysts
• Multiple recent downgrades, including:
  • Susquehanna downgraded to Neutral from Positive (Jan 2025)
  • BMO Capital downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform (Oct 2024)
  • Stifel downgraded to Hold from Buy (Oct 2024)

3. Financial Performance Concerns

• Revenue declined to $1.47 billion in Q3 2024
• 4.8% drop in LTL tonnes per day due to domestic economic softness
• Operating margins showing pressure from cost inflation

Mitigating Factors:

• Strong balance sheet with low debt-to-equity ratio
• Industry-leading operating efficiency
• Consistent dividend growth
• Premium pricing power in the LTL market

Conclusion: ODFL appears overvalued at current levels based on:

• Premium valuation multiples
• Declining revenue and earnings growth
• Multiple analyst downgrades
• Current market challenges in the LTL sector

Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. is a less-than-truckload (LTL) motor carriers. The Company provides regional, inter-regional and national LTL services through a single integrated, union-free organization. Its service offerings, which include expedited transportation, are provided through an expansive network of service centers located throughout the continental United States. It offers a range of value-added services including container drayage, truckload brokerage, and supply chain consulting. It operates approximately 257 service center locations, of which the Company owns 233 and leases 24. Its service centers are responsible for the pickup and delivery of freight within their local service area. Its system offers its customers access to information such as freight tracking, shipping documents, rate quotes, rate databases, and account activity. The Company's integrated systems and customer service department provide its customers with a single point of contact to access information.

Based on the available data and market analysis, here is a prediction for ODFL's stock price in 2030:

Old Dominion Freight Line (ODFL) stock is projected to reach $380-400 by 2030, representing approximately a 100% increase from current levels around $190, driven by its strong competitive position in less-than-truckload shipping and excellent operational efficiency. The company's premium service quality, commitment to sustainability, and extensive network of over 52,000 tractors and trailers position it well for long-term growth. Despite recent market headwinds and revenue declines in 2024, ODFL's proven business model and industry leadership should enable sustained growth as interest rates normalize and economic conditions improve.

ODFL has a total of 22902 employees.