TPB

Partnership Announcement: Nicokick.com and Northerner.com have entered a one-year agreement to become preferred online partners for ALP, a new nicotine pouch brand aimed at adult consumers, offering various strengths and flavors.

Product Availability and Commitment: ALP nicotine pouches are now available on both platforms with an introductory price, emphasizing the retailers' commitment to providing smoke-free alternatives while ensuring compliance with age verification processes.

Dividend Predictability: Dividend amounts for companies like Turning Point Brands Inc are unpredictable and often fluctuate with profitability, making it essential to analyze historical data to gauge future expectations, such as a 0.5% annualized yield.

Options Trading Insights: Recent trading data shows a higher call volume compared to puts among S&P 500 components, indicating a preference for calls in options trading, alongside a calculated volatility of 33% for TPB stock based on its recent performance.

Upcoming Ex-Dividend Dates: On March 21, 2025, Restaurant Brands International Inc (QSR), Turning Point Brands Inc (TPB), and Walmart Inc (WMT) will trade ex-dividend, with respective dividends of $0.62, $0.075, and $0.235 scheduled for April 4, April 11, and April 7, 2025.

Dividend Yield Expectations: Current estimated annualized yields are 3.66% for QSR, 0.52% for TPB, and 1.10% for WMT, reflecting the companies' historical dividend stability and recent trading performance.

Health Secretary's Initiative: Robert F. Kennedy Jr., the new health secretary, praised Steak ’n Shake for being the first national fast-food chain to start moving away from seed oils as part of his food agenda.

Internal Controversy: The congratulatory social media post was deleted shortly after due to internal disputes regarding the rollout of the health secretary's agenda for a healthier America.

Price Target Increase: Alliance Global Partners raised the price target for Turning Point Brands (TPB) from $80 to $85, maintaining a Buy rating due to strong Q4 results that exceeded expectations for sales and EBITDA.

Future Outlook: The firm is optimistic about TPB's potential in the pouch category, predicting that 2025 will be a significant year for the company as it aims to replicate its market share success against big tobacco competitors.

Financial Performance: Turning Point Brands, Inc. reported a 12.8% increase in net sales for Q4 2024, totaling $93.7 million, and an adjusted EBITDA of $26.2 million, up 5.3% from the previous year. For FY 2024, total net sales rose by 11.0% to $360.7 million, with adjusted EBITDA increasing by 12.0% to $104.5 million.

Future Outlook: The company anticipates an adjusted EBITDA of $108-113 million and Modern Oral sales between $60-80 million for FY 2025, highlighting growth potential in its Zig-Zag and Stoker's product segments.

Major Earnings Reports: Key earnings reports expected before the market opens on Thursday include Canadian Natural Resources, JD.com, Kroger, Macy's, and TORM.

Additional Earnings Releases: Other companies set to release earnings include ACDC, BJ, BURL, CBRL, DCTH, and several others listed in the article.

Top Upgrades and Downgrades: Several stocks received notable upgrades, including Oracle, Chipotle, and MongoDB, while Dollar General, Tandem Diabetes, and Southwest Airlines faced downgrades due to various market conditions and company performance concerns.

New Initiations: Morgan Stanley and other firms initiated coverage on several companies such as SanDisk and zSpace, providing optimistic ratings and price targets based on anticipated growth and market opportunities.

Dividend Announcement: Turning Point Brands, Inc. declared a quarterly dividend of $0.075 per share, marking a 7% increase from the previous quarter, payable on April 11, 2025.

Company Overview: TPB is a manufacturer and distributor of branded consumer products, including alternative smoking accessories, available in over 220,000 retail outlets across North America.

Analyst Rating and Price Target: Craig-Hallum analyst Eric Des Lauriers maintained a Buy rating on Turning Point Brands (TPB) with a price target of $85.00, while the shares closed at $68.37.

Market Consensus and Performance: Turning Point Brands has a Strong Buy consensus among analysts, with an average price target of $71.25, and Des Lauriers has a 40.80% success rate in his stock coverage.

Construction Stocks Performance: Construction shares have shown relative strength, increasing by approximately 1.8%, with Argan up 11.5% and Ameresco up 6.2% on Thursday.

Market Commentary: The views expressed in the article reflect the author's opinions and do not necessarily represent those of Nasdaq, Inc.

Overbought Stocks in Consumer Staples: As of January 31, 2025, three consumer staples stocks—British American Tobacco (BTI), Estee Lauder (EL), and Turning Point Brands (TPB)—are identified as overbought based on their RSI values, indicating potential caution for momentum-focused investors.

Recent Stock Performance: British American Tobacco's stock rose 9% recently with an RSI of 75; Estee Lauder saw a 14% increase and has an RSI of 77.1; Turning Point Brands gained 12% with an RSI of 73.1, reflecting strong short-term performance despite overbought conditions.

F5, Inc. Financial Results: F5, Inc. shares surged 14.9% in pre-market trading after reporting first-quarter earnings of $3.84 per share and revenue of $766.49 million, both exceeding analyst expectations.

Stock Movements: Several stocks experienced significant pre-market movements, with Lucas GC Limited gaining 71.5% and Culp, Inc. dropping 41.9%, reflecting a mix of positive and negative market reactions.

Cigarettes & Tobacco Market Performance: Cigarette and tobacco shares are underperforming in the market, with a collective decline of approximately 1.2%, primarily driven by Turning Point Brands and Universal's significant drops.

Market Commentary Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in the article reflect the author's views and do not necessarily represent those of Nasdaq, Inc.

ETF Analysis: The Vanguard Consumer Staples ETF (VDC) has an implied analyst target price of $237.73, indicating a potential upside of 12.60% from its current trading price of $211.14.

Stock Performance Insights: Notable underlying holdings such as SpartanNash Co, Turning Point Brands Inc, and Estee Lauder Cos., Inc. show significant upside potential based on analysts' target prices, prompting questions about the validity of these targets in light of recent market developments.

Dividend Predictability: Dividend amounts for companies like Turning Point Brands Inc are unpredictable and often fluctuate with profitability; analyzing historical data can help assess future dividend expectations.

Options Trading Activity: Recent trading data shows a high call volume relative to puts among S&P 500 components, indicating a preference for call options in the market.

ALP Pouches Launch: ALP nicotine pouches are now available for purchase online, offering a premium alternative to traditional tobacco products with a focus on a smooth and discreet experience.

Market Impact: A survey indicates that 86% of current U.S. nicotine pouch users are likely to switch to ALP, suggesting significant potential influence on the nicotine market, according to industry experts.

Supreme Court Challenge: The U.S. Supreme Court is reviewing a case from Triton Distribution against the FDA regarding bans on flavored e-cigarettes, with concerns about their appeal to youth. Justices seem skeptical of Triton's arguments, and a final ruling is expected in June.

Impact on Tobacco Industry: The outcome could significantly affect companies like Altria, which currently sells approved flavored e-cigarettes, while potentially increasing competition if the ruling favors more product approvals.

Market Trends and Consumer Behavior: The podcast discusses the impact of rising tensions between Russia and Ukraine on stock markets, along with Walmart's strong earnings report indicating a shift in consumer behavior where higher-income households are increasingly shopping at Walmart for value amidst ongoing inflation.

Retirement Planning Insights: A two-part series features Christine Benz discussing safe withdrawal rates in retirement, emphasizing flexibility in spending based on portfolio performance and the importance of balancing asset allocation to enhance portfolio longevity.

Market Performance: Cigarettes and tobacco stocks are lagging behind the market, with a slight increase of 0.1%, primarily affected by declines in Turning Point Brands and Ispire Technology.

Sector Laggards: The report highlights waste management and cigarettes & tobacco stocks as notable laggards in Friday's market performance.