TPB Earnings Prediction
The chart below shows how TPB performed 10 days before and after its earnings report, based on data from the past quarters. Typically, TPB sees a -1.64% change in stock price 10 days leading up to the earnings, and a -2.55% change 10 days following the report. On the earnings day itself, the stock moves by +1.06%. This data can give you a slight idea of what to expect for the next quarter's release.
TPB Key Earning Data
2024/Q4
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TPB Earnings Analysis
Turning Point Brands Inc Corporation (TPB.N) Earnings Conference Call
Positive
Earnings Per Share Beat: Turning Point Brands, Inc. reported an EPS of $0.98, significantly beating expectations of $0.57.
Q4 Revenue Increase: Revenue for Q4 increased by 13% to $93.7 million, indicating strong performance.
Q4 Adjusted EBITDA Increase: Adjusted EBITDA for Q4 rose by 5% to $26.2 million, showcasing operational efficiency.
Adjusted EBITDA Increase: For the full year, adjusted EBITDA increased by 12% to $104.5 million, exceeding previous guidance.
2025 Adjusted EBITDA Guidance: The company initiated 2025 adjusted EBITDA guidance of $108 million to $113 million, reflecting confidence in growth.
Q4 Revenue Increase: Zig Zag revenue increased by 2% in Q4, with promising growth initiatives planned for 2025.
Revenue Surge in Q4: Stoker's revenue surged by 26% to $47.8 million in Q4, demonstrating strong market demand.
Sales Surge in Oral Brands: Modern oral brands, particularly Free, saw a remarkable 419% increase in sales, indicating successful market penetration.
Expansion of Distribution Efforts: The company is expanding its distribution and marketing efforts for modern oral products, enhancing growth potential.
Strong Cash Position: Turning Point Brands ended the quarter with over $46 million in cash and a strong free cash flow of $56.3 million for the year.
Negative
Gross Margin Decline: Gross margin decreased 39 basis points year over year to 55.9% for the full year, indicating a decline in profitability.
Gross Margin Decline: For the quarter, gross margin was down 108 basis points year over year, reflecting challenges in product mix.
Modest Revenue Growth: Despite an overall revenue increase, Zig Zag revenue growth was only 2% for the quarter, which is relatively modest compared to previous performance.
Revenue Decline in MST Segment: Stoker's MST segment experienced a 1% decline in revenue for the quarter, indicating potential market challenges.
Core Segment Growth Outlook: The company anticipates mid-single-digit growth excluding the modern oral business, suggesting slower growth in core segments.
Performance Challenges in Canada: The company faced pressure from the unwind of the Clipper relationship and timing and FX-related issues in the Canadian business, which negatively impacted performance.
EBITDA Growth Challenges: Sales and marketing investments are expected to constrain the rate of EBITDA growth in 2025, indicating potential challenges in maintaining profitability while pursuing growth.
Volume Decline Analysis: The overall TPD loose leaf volume was down 1.8%, leading category volume declines of 4.4%, indicating a challenging market environment.
TPB FAQs
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TPB Earning Call Sentiment
Turning Point Brands, Inc. (NYSE:TPB) Q4 2024 Earnings Call Transcript
TPB.N
-0.45%Positive
The earnings call presents a positive outlook with increased guidance for EBITDA, strong revenue growth, and a significant share repurchase program. Despite some regulatory challenges, the company is expanding distribution and has positive early results from a new partnership with 7-Eleven. The Q&A section reveals optimism about modern oral product growth and strategic brand positioning. Although there are some concerns about margins and regulatory issues, the overall sentiment is positive, suggesting a likely stock price increase in the short term.
