Stock Price & Analysis

Based on the recent data and market analysis, here's a concise assessment of FAST stock:

Technical Analysis

The stock shows a strong upward momentum, trading near its 52-week highs with key technical indicators suggesting continued strength:

• Currently trading at $70.99, above both 50-day and 200-day moving averages
• RSI at 50.77 indicates neutral momentum without being overbought
• MACD showing positive divergence with a 0.18 histogram value

Fundamental Factors

Recent analyst actions and market sentiment suggest cautious optimism:

• Analysts maintain a consensus "Hold" rating
• Price targets range from $82 to $88, with an average of $85.25
• The company faces some headwinds from weak manufacturing demand but maintains solid market position

Market Position

• Leading position in industrial distribution with over 400,000 active customers
• Strong network of approximately 1,600 branches and 1,800 on-site locations
• Fasteners remain core business at 30-35% of sales

Based on the technical strength and fundamental outlook, FAST stock appears to be a HOLD at current levels. While the company maintains strong market position, current valuation and manufacturing sector headwinds suggest limited immediate upside potential.

Based on the provided data and technical analysis, here's a concise price prediction for FAST stock in 2025:

FAST stock is projected to reach $82-85 by end of 2025, driven by strong technical indicators and valuation metrics showing room for ~15% upside from current levels. The stock's recent consolidation around $75 level with improving RSI and MACD signals supports this bullish outlook.

The key reasons supporting this target:

1. Technical Analysis: Price is trading above all major moving averages (5,10,20,60,200-day SMAs) with positive momentum indicators - RSI at 51.98 showing balanced conditions and MACD turning positive with 0.18 histogram.

2. Valuation Metrics: Forward P/E of 35.89x and EV/EBITDA of 24.43x suggest reasonable valuation given the company's steady growth profile and strong market position.

3. Strong Support Levels: Fibonacci analysis shows key support at $73.31 and $72.61, with resistance levels at $75.57 and $76.27, indicating a solid base for upward movement.

The S1 support level for FAST Stock is $73.34 ,The R1 resistant level for FAST Stock is $75.75.

As of the end of day on 2025-02-27, the price of FAST Stock was $74.03.

The target price for FAST Stock according to analyst rating is 79.00, with the highest price target at 85.00 and the lowest at 70.00. Analysts have a Hold rating on FAST Stock overall.

The market cap of FAST is $42.4B.

Based on the provided data and current market context, here is my analysis of whether FAST is overvalued:

Valuation Analysis: FAST is currently trading at a premium valuation with a forward P/E ratio above industry averages, while showing moderate growth metrics. The company's Q4 2024 results missed expectations with EPS of $0.46 versus $0.48 estimated.

Growth Metrics: Revenue growth has slowed to 3.7% year-over-year in Q4 2024, with net daily sales increasing only 2.1%. This deceleration is concerning given the premium valuation multiples.

Margin Pressure: Gross margin contracted to 44.8% from 45.5% year ago due to unfavorable customer mix and higher import duties. Operating margin also declined to 18.9% from 20.1%, indicating increasing cost pressures.

Technical Position: The stock has rallied significantly from its 2024 lows and is now showing signs of being overbought near all-time highs.

Conclusion: At current levels around $71, FAST appears overvalued given its slowing growth, margin pressures, and premium valuation multiples compared to historical averages and peers. The recent analyst consensus also suggests limited upside, with a mean price target of $78.75 representing only 5.9% potential gain.

Fastenal Company is engaged in the wholesale distribution of industrial and construction supplies. The Company is a distributor of threaded fasteners, bolts, nuts, screws, studs, and related washers, as well as miscellaneous supplies and hardware, such as pins, machinery keys, concrete anchors, metal framing systems, wire rope, struts, rivets, and related accessories. Its business tools include Fastenal Managed Inventory (FMI), Bin stock (FASTStock and FASTBin) and Industrial vending (FASTVend). It also invests in digital solutions that aim to deliver value for its customers, leverage local inventory for same-day solutions, and provide service. Its customers are in the manufacturing and non-residential construction markets. It serves general and commercial contractors in non-residential end markets as well as farmers, truckers, railroads, oil exploration companies, oil production and refinement companies, mining companies, federal, state, and local governmental entities, and others.

Based on Fastenal's strong market position in industrial distribution and consistent growth trajectory, FAST stock is projected to reach $115-120 by 2030, driven by continued expansion in digital solutions and onsite locations. The company's robust financial health, with steady revenue growth and high profit margins, supports this bullish outlook. Technical indicators and current market trends suggest a sustained upward momentum, with the stock potentially benefiting from increased industrial automation and infrastructure spending over the next 5-7 years.

FAST has a total of 20721 employees.