Stock Price & Analysis

Based on the provided data and recent market activity, FAST stock shows mixed signals:

Technical Analysis

The stock is currently trading at $75.53, showing minimal movement with a 0.09% gain in regular trading hours and 0.04% in post-market. The stock is trading above its 20-day moving average of $73.62, suggesting short-term bullish momentum.

Recent Performance & Events

• Q4 2024 earnings were released showing 3.7% growth but EPS remained flat at $0.46, slightly disappointing market expectations
• December 2024 saw significant business disruption with 35% of customer facilities experiencing shutdowns during holiday period, compared to 30% in 2023
• The company has shown strong customer acquisition with double-digit growth in contract base, including 12% growth in December

Business Fundamentals

• Strong focus on high-value customers generating over $50,000 monthly revenue
• Digital transformation initiatives showing progress with FMI Technology touching 44% of revenue in Q4
• Management expects flattish gross margins in 2025 with potential for improvement if market conditions strengthen

Analyst Sentiment Recent analyst actions include:

• Stifel: Hold rating with $82 price target (7.77% upside)
• Jefferies: Hold rating with $85 price target (4.87% upside)
• UBS: Hold rating with $88 price target (5.24% upside)

Conclusion At current levels, FAST stock appears to be a HOLD. While the company shows solid business fundamentals and strategic initiatives, current valuation and mixed near-term catalysts suggest limited upside potential. Consider waiting for a better entry point or clearer positive catalysts before initiating new positions.

Based on the provided data and current market conditions, here's the price prediction for FAST stock in 2025:

FAST stock is expected to reach $85-90 by end of 2025, representing a ~15-20% upside from current price of $75.58, driven by improving customer sentiment and strategic focus on high-value accounts generating over $50,000 monthly revenue.

The company's recent earnings showed resilient performance despite challenging macro conditions, with Q4 2024 growth of 3.7% and strong customer contract base growing double digits.

The strategic shift towards focusing on customers generating over $50,000 monthly revenue, which currently represent about 48% of sales through approximately 2,500 locations, positions Fastenal well for margin expansion and accelerated growth in 2025.

The S1 support level for FAST Stock is $72.15 ,The R1 resistant level for FAST Stock is $76.99.

As of the end of day on 2025-01-24, the price of FAST Stock was $75.58.

The target price for FAST Stock according to analyst rating is 86.63, with the highest price target at 135.00 and the lowest at 70.00. Analysts have a Hold rating on FAST Stock overall.

The market cap of FAST is $43.3B.

Based on the provided data, I'll analyze whether FAST is overvalued through multiple key aspects:

Valuation Metrics FAST's current P/E ratio of 35.89x is significantly above industry averages, indicating a premium valuation. The EV/EBITDA of 24.41x and P/S ratio of 5.47x also suggest rich valuation levels.

Growth & Profitability

• Revenue growth has been relatively flat quarter-over-quarter in 2024 ($1.89B to $1.82B)
• Net margins have declined from 15.71% to 14.37% throughout 2024
• ROE has decreased from 34.56% to 33.04% during 2024

Analyst Sentiment Recent analyst actions show mixed views:

• Stifel downgraded to Hold with $82 target (Jan 2025)
• UBS initiated at Hold with $88 target (Nov 2024)
• Multiple analysts maintain Hold ratings with targets in $70-85 range

Conclusion FAST appears overvalued based on:

1. Premium valuation multiples vs historical averages
2. Declining profitability metrics
3. Slowing growth momentum
4. Mostly neutral analyst sentiment
5. Limited upside potential based on consensus price targets

Fastenal Company is engaged in the wholesale distribution of industrial and construction supplies. The Company is a distributor of threaded fasteners, bolts, nuts, screws, studs, and related washers, as well as miscellaneous supplies and hardware, such as pins, machinery keys, concrete anchors, metal framing systems, wire rope, struts, rivets, and related accessories. Its business tools include Fastenal Managed Inventory (FMI), Bin stock (FASTStock and FASTBin) and Industrial vending (FASTVend). It also invests in digital solutions that aim to deliver value for its customers, leverage local inventory for same-day solutions, and provide service. Its customers are in the manufacturing and non-residential construction markets. It serves general and commercial contractors in non-residential end markets as well as farmers, truckers, railroads, oil exploration companies, oil production and refinement companies, mining companies, federal, state, and local governmental entities, and others.

Based on the provided data and context, here's a price prediction analysis for FAST stock in 2030:

FAST stock is projected to reach $125-135 by 2030, representing a 65-78% increase from current levels around $75.53. This forecast is based on several key factors:

1. The company's strategic shift towards high-value customers generating over $50,000 monthly revenue, which currently represents about 48% of sales, indicates strong potential for sustained growth through deeper market penetration.

2. Fastenal's digital transformation and eCommerce capabilities enhancement, coupled with improved inventory management and distribution efficiency, positions the company for continued market share gains in the industrial supply sector.

3. The company's demonstrated ability to maintain strong cash flow generation and consistent dividend growth (10% increase in 2025) suggests sustainable long-term financial health.

FAST has a total of 20721 employees.