Stock Price & Analysis

Based on the provided data and recent market activity, I'll provide a comprehensive analysis of ARM stock:

Technical Analysis

The stock has shown significant volatility recently, with the price declining from around $171 to $144.84 in the latest trading session. The current price represents a -3.98% drop in regular market trading, with minimal after-hours movement (-0.06%).

Fundamental Analysis

Key valuation metrics show ARM is trading at elevated levels:

• Forward P/E: 70.7x (adjusted for historical earnings beats)
• P/S: 40.38x
• P/B: 24.56x

Recent Business Performance

• Record Q3 FY2025 results with revenue of $983 million (+19% YoY)
• Royalty revenue reached record $580 million
• Gross margin of 97.2%, up from 95.6% YoY
• Strong cash position of $2.67 billion

Market Position & Growth Drivers

• Dominates smartphone semiconductor market with 99% share
• Expanding into AI chip production with notable developments:
  • Meta Platforms becoming first customer for in-house chip
  • Participation in $500 billion Stargate AI infrastructure project
  • Strong adoption of latest Armv9 architecture

Insider/Institutional Activity

Recent insider selling activity suggests caution:

• Multiple officers proposing stock sales in September 2024
• Negative insider sentiment based on increased selling activity

Recommendation

SELL at current levels based on:

1. Extremely high valuation multiples
2. Negative insider sentiment
3. Recent technical weakness
4. Stock appears to be riding the AI wave without justifying current premium

While ARM has strong fundamentals and market position, the current valuation leaves little room for error. Consider waiting for a more attractive entry point.

Price Analysis and Forecast

Based on recent market data and analyst forecasts, here's a comprehensive price prediction for ARM stock by the end of 2025:

ARM stock is projected to reach $195-225 by end of 2025, representing a potential upside of 34-55% from current levels. This forecast is supported by:

1. Strong AI-driven growth: ARM is a key technology partner in Stargate, a $500 billion AI infrastructure project with Oracle, SoftBank, and OpenAI, positioning it well for AI-related revenue expansion.

2. Analyst Consensus: Multiple top analysts have recently raised their price targets:

• Rosenblatt: $225
• Evercore ISI: $202
• Jefferies: $195
• Loop Capital: $195

Key Growth Drivers

1. Record royalty revenue in recent quarters with strong adoption of Armv9 architecture
2. Expanding presence in AI-enabled data centers
3. Strategic partnerships in major AI initiatives
4. Consistent earnings beats (averaging 16% above consensus)

The S1 support level for ARM Stock is $137.9 ,The R1 resistant level for ARM Stock is $164.81.

As of the end of day on 2025-02-26, the price of ARM Stock was $138.81.

The target price for ARM Stock according to analyst rating is 179.00, with the highest price target at 215.00 and the lowest at 100.00. Analysts have a Moderate Buy rating on ARM Stock overall.

The market cap of ARM is $144.1B.

Based on the provided data and analysis, here is a concise 5-sentence assessment of ARM's valuation:

ARM is currently overvalued with its stock trading at a forward P/E ratio of over 80x fiscal 2026 earnings, which is more than double the valuation of other premium semiconductor stocks including Nvidia. The company's recent Q3 FY2025 revenue growth of 19% year-over-year to $983 million, while solid, does not justify such an extreme premium valuation. Despite ARM's dominant 99% market share in smartphone chips and growing presence in AI through partnerships with major players like Nvidia and Microsoft, analysts estimate only 23% growth for FY25 followed by 17-32% growth rates. Multiple analysts and research firms, including Morningstar, have assigned fair value estimates in the $57-66 range, suggesting the stock is trading at a 105% premium to its intrinsic value [4, 5]. The stock's current price around $144 appears to be driven more by AI hype than fundamentals, as even with optimistic assumptions of 19% revenue CAGR over the next decade and 70% operating margins, the shares remain significantly overvalued.

Arm Holdings plc is a semiconductor intellectual property (IP) company. The Company develops and licenses IP for various devices worldwide, and it provides development tools that accelerate product development, from sensors to smartphones to servers. Its central processing unit (CPUs) and nomenclature for properties and units (NPUs) include Cortex-A, Cortex-M, Cortex-R, Neoverse, Ethos and SecurCore. It provides processor IP, offering a range of cores to address the performance, power and cost requirements of every device, from Internet of things sensors to supercomputers, and from smartphones and laptops to autonomous vehicles. Its graphics and camera technology drives the visual experience across a range of devices, including mass-market to high-performance smartphones, Android OS-based tablets, and digital televisions. It provides foundation physical IP and processor implementation solutions to address the performance, power and cost requirements for all application markets.

Based on the available data and market analysis, here's the ARM stock price prediction for 2030:

ARM stock is projected to reach $267 by 2030, representing an 84% increase from current levels, driven by the company's dominant position in AI chip architecture and expanding royalty revenue streams. The growth will be primarily fueled by increasing adoption of ARM's v9 architecture which generates 2x higher royalty rates compared to previous generations.

The forecast is supported by ARM's strong market position with 99% share in smartphone semiconductors and expanding presence in AI/data center segments through partnerships with major tech companies like Meta Platforms. The company's high-margin licensing and royalty business model, with gross margins over 97%, provides sustainable long-term growth potential.

ARM has a total of 5963 employees.