Stock Price & Analysis

Analysis and Insights

To determine whether to buy or sell Freshpet (FRPT) stock, we analyze both technical and fundamental factors.

Technical Analysis:

Freshpet's stock price has been under pressure, with a current price of $84.2. The RSI (14) is at 22.49, indicating oversold conditions, while the MACD is bearish. Support levels are at $87.88 and $81.46, with resistance at $108.67 and $115.09.

Fundamental Analysis:

Freshpet reported strong Q4 results with a 22% revenue increase, but missed earnings estimates slightly. The company expects 21-24% sales growth in 2025 and plans to achieve positive free cash flow by 2026. However, the stock trades at 56 times earnings, raising valuation concerns.

Analyst Sentiment:

Analysts have mixed views. JPMorgan lowered its price target to $102, while Oppenheimer downgraded the stock to Perform. Despite this, some analysts remain cautiously optimistic.

Options Activity:

High put option volume, particularly at the $90 strike, suggests bearish sentiment, indicating investors are hedging against potential declines.

Conclusion:

Given the mixed analyst sentiment, bearish technical indicators, and rich valuation, it may be prudent to wait for signs of stabilization before investing. The stock's risks currently outweigh its rewards.

The price prediction for Freshpet (FRPT) stock in 2025 is $98. This forecast is based on mixed analyst sentiments, with JPMorgan lowering its target to $102 and Oppenheimer downgrading the stock, while others like Jefferies show cautious optimism. Technically, the stock is oversold with an RSI of 22, suggesting a potential rebound toward the Fibonacci pivot level of $98.27.

The S1 support level for FRPT Stock is $82.89 ,The R1 resistant level for FRPT Stock is $105.14.

As of the end of day on 2025-03-14, the price of FRPT Stock was $87.41.

The target price for FRPT Stock according to analyst rating is 155.50, with the highest price target at 195.00 and the lowest at 123.00. Analysts have a Strong Buy rating on FRPT Stock overall.

The market cap of FRPT is $4.2B.

FRPT appears overvalued based on its high valuation metrics and recent analyst downgrades. Its PE ratio of 64.3 (Q3) and 65.24 (Q4) is significantly above industry averages, suggesting elevated expectations. The EV/EBITDA of 7.26-7.56 further indicates a premium valuation. JPMorgan lowered its price target to $102 from $154, citing concerns over consumption trends and potentially optimistic estimates. Oppenheimer also downgraded FRPT to Perform, highlighting disappointing guidance and a "risk-off" market environment. These factors, combined with high valuation multiples, suggest FRPT may be overvalued.

Freshpet, Inc. is focused on the development, manufacturing, marketing, and distribution of pet food products. The Company’s products consist of dog food, cat food and dog treats. The Company’s products are made according to its nutritional philosophy of fresh, meat-based nutrition and minimal processing. Its proprietary recipes include real, fresh meat and varying combinations of vitamin-rich vegetables, leafy greens, and antioxidant-rich fruits, without the use of preservatives or additives. Its products are sold under the Freshpet brand name. The Company sells its products through a network of Company-owned branded refrigerators, Freshpet Fridges. The Company sells its products throughout the United States, Canada, and Europe. It sells its products through the classes of retail: grocery (including online), mass, club, pet specialty, natural, and digital. The Company also offer fresh treats across all classes of retail under the Dognation and Dog Joy labels.

FRPT stock is predicted to reach $140 by 2030, driven by sustained revenue growth and margin expansion. The stock is currently undervalued with strong long-term growth potential. Analysts expect improved profitability and market share gains to support the price target.

FRPT has a total of 1083 employees.