Based on the provided data, here's a comprehensive analysis of MDLZ's valuation:
Valuation Analysis
MDLZ's current valuation metrics show concerning trends with P/E ratio expanding to 26.1x in Q3 2024, up from 22.25x in Q1 2024, indicating potential overvaluation compared to historical levels.
Financial Performance
The company's Q3 2024 results show declining margins, with gross margin dropping to 32.15% from 50.72% in Q1 2024, while net margin decreased to 9.3% from 15.24%, suggesting operational pressure.
Analyst Sentiment
Recent analyst actions have been predominantly negative, with multiple firms lowering price targets due to cocoa cost pressures. Goldman Sachs reduced their target to $68, while Piper Sandler cut to $70, citing currency headwinds and cocoa cost concerns.
Market Risks
Rising food prices in December 2024 and increasing commodity costs, particularly cocoa, are creating significant headwinds for MDLZ's profitability. The company's high debt-to-equity ratio of 71% in Q3 2024 adds financial risk.
Based on deteriorating margins, expanding valuation multiples, and mounting cost pressures, MDLZ appears overvalued at current levels.