Based on the provided data and recent market activity, here's a comprehensive analysis of TDG's valuation:
Valuation Metrics
TDG currently trades at elevated multiples with a P/E ratio of 46.83 and EV/EBITDA of 22.77, suggesting the stock is trading at premium valuations compared to historical averages.
Recent Performance
The stock is currently trading at $1,327.34, showing strong momentum with recent analyst upgrades. Wells Fargo recently upgraded TDG to Overweight with a $1,500 price target, citing significant capital deployment opportunities.
Growth & Financial Strength
The company demonstrated robust financial performance with:
- Revenue growth of 20% in fiscal 2024
- Strong EBITDA margin of 52.6%
- Substantial free cash flow generation of $2.3 billion
- Healthy cash balance of $6.3 billion
Insider Sentiment
Recent insider activity shows negative sentiment with 107 insiders selling shares, suggesting management may view the current valuation as stretched.
Analyst Consensus
Wall Street maintains a Moderate Buy rating with an average price target of $1,513.77, implying a 14.05% upside potential.
Conclusion
Based on the comprehensive analysis, TDG appears overvalued at current levels due to:
- Premium valuation multiples
- Significant insider selling activity
- High P/E ratio relative to historical averages
- Recent price appreciation pushing valuations higher
However, strong fundamentals and analyst optimism suggest the premium valuation may be partially justified by the company's execution and growth prospects.