Stock Price & Analysis

Based on the provided data and current market conditions, here's a concise analysis for TXRH:

Technical Analysis

The stock is showing signs of consolidation after a recent pullback. The RSI (14) at 35.84 indicates the stock is approaching oversold territory, while the MACD shows a bearish trend with increasing negative momentum.

Recent Performance

• Current Price: $171.70 (as of Feb 14, 2025)
• Recent high: $172.82
• Recent low: $169.68
• Trading Volume: 1,059,519 shares

Key Support/Resistance Levels

• Fibonacci Support Levels: S1: $169.85, S2: $165.80
• Fibonacci Resistance Levels: R1: $182.97, R2: $187.02

Fundamental Outlook

According to recent reports, Texas Roadhouse has demonstrated strong operational performance with:

• Solid comparable sales growth in high single digits
• Strong traffic growth and increasing average check amounts
• Limited international exposure, reducing currency risk concerns
• Primary risk factor: beef prices as a key input cost

Market Sentiment The CNBC Investing Club recently added to their TXRH position, citing:

• Quality food at competitive prices
• Consistent high single-digit comparable sales growth
• Limited exposure to international markets
• 15% pullback from November highs creating an attractive entry point

Recommendation SELL - Current technical indicators suggest continued downward pressure in the short term, despite strong fundamentals. Consider waiting for technical confirmation of a trend reversal before entering a long position.

Based on the provided data and current market conditions, here's the price prediction for TXRH stock in 2025:

Technical Analysis & Price Projection

The stock is currently trading at $171.70 with recent resistance around $182-183 level and support at $169.85 (Fibonacci S1). Technical indicators show:

• RSI (14) at 35.84 indicates oversold conditions
• MACD is bearish with -3.02 reading
• Stock is trading below its 20-day SMA ($178.19) and 60-day SMA ($184.86)

Price Target Scenarios for 2025

Base Case ($185-190):

• Strong fundamentals and restaurant sector recovery
• Breaking above recent resistance at $182
• Probability: 60%

Bullish Case ($195-200):

• Exceeding earnings expectations
• Breaking above Fibonacci R3 at $193.58
• Probability: 25%

Bearish Case ($165-170):

• Market correction
• Breaking below Fibonacci S2 at $165.80
• Probability: 15%

Most likely scenario points to a base case target of $185-190 by end of 2025, representing ~10% upside from current levels. This is supported by:

1. Oversold technical conditions suggesting potential reversal
2. Strong support at $169-170 level
3. Recent news indicating positive business momentum

The S1 support level for TXRH Stock is $169.22 ,The R1 resistant level for TXRH Stock is $179.98.

As of the end of day on 2025-02-21, the price of TXRH Stock was $168.53.

The target price for TXRH Stock according to analyst rating is 204.71, with the highest price target at 260.00 and the lowest at 170.00. Analysts have a Moderate Buy rating on TXRH Stock overall.

The market cap of TXRH is $11.3B.

Based on the current valuation metrics and market data, TXRH appears to be moderately overvalued at its current price of $172. The stock's P/E ratio has increased from 23.7x in 2022 to 27.1x in 2023, indicating expanding valuation multiples above historical averages. Technical indicators show bearish signals with RSI-14 at 35.84 and MACD trending negative, suggesting near-term downward pressure. Despite strong fundamental performance with 13.5% revenue growth and 32.5% EPS growth in Q3, the current price trades at premium multiples across P/E, EV/EBITDA, and P/B metrics compared to both historical levels and industry averages. While Texas Roadhouse maintains excellent operational execution and customer loyalty, the rich valuation leaves limited upside potential at these levels.

Texas Roadhouse, Inc. is a restaurant company, which operates predominately in the casual dining segment. The Company maintains three restaurant concepts operating as Texas Roadhouse, Bubba’s 33 and Jaggers. Its Texas Roadhouse is a full-service, casual dining restaurant concept offering an assortment of specially seasoned and aged steaks hand-cut daily on the premises and cooked to order over open grills. Its Bubba’s 33 is a full-service, casual dining restaurant concept featuring scratch-made food for all with a little rock 'n' roll, ice-cold beer, and signature drinks. Its Jaggers is a fast-casual restaurant concept offering burgers, hand-breaded chicken tenders and chicken sandwiches served with scratch-made sauces. Bubba’s 33 restaurant consists of a freestanding building with approximately 7,600 square feet with seating for approximately 270 to 330 guests. It operates approximately 582 Texas Roadhouse restaurants, 45 as Bubba’s 33 restaurants and eight as Jaggers restaurants.

Based on current market analysis and growth projections, Texas Roadhouse (TXRH) stock is expected to reach $245-255 by 2030, representing a ~45% upside from current levels. The projection is supported by the company's consistent expansion plans with over 780 restaurants system-wide and strong operational execution in casual dining segment. The company's proven business model, focus on value proposition, and strategic growth initiatives in both domestic and international markets position it well for sustained long-term growth.

TXRH has a total of 91000 employees.