Based on the provided data and current market conditions, here's an analysis of whether ING is overvalued:
Technical Analysis
ING currently trades at $16.73, showing an RSI of 63.69, indicating neutral momentum without being overbought. The stock is trading above its 20-day moving average of $15.94, suggesting short-term bullish momentum.
Valuation Assessment
The stock trades at approximately 0.95x tangible book value, representing a slight discount to book value. This valuation is relatively modest for a bank generating a return on tangible equity (ROTE) of approximately 13-14%.
Capital Return Potential
ING has announced a €2.5 billion capital return program, including a €2 billion share buyback and €0.5 billion dividend. The bank still maintains approximately €3 billion in excess capital above its target CET1 ratio.
Market Performance
The stock has demonstrated resilience with a 20% total return (including dividends) over the past year, despite challenging market conditions.
Conclusion
At current levels, ING appears fairly valued to slightly undervalued, considering its solid returns, strong capital position, and ongoing capital return program.