Molina Healthcare Secures $6 Billion Contract Despite Earnings Loss
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Apr 11 2024
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Should l Buy MOH?
Source: newsfilter
Molina Healthcare's stock rose by 5.04% as it crossed above the 5-day SMA, reflecting a positive market reaction despite recent challenges.
The company reported an adjusted loss per share of ($2.75) for Q4 2025, primarily due to retroactive Medicaid items and ongoing marketplace pressures. However, Molina secured a historic Children's Medical Services contract in Florida, expected to yield $6 billion in annual revenue, demonstrating a strategic advantage in a competitive healthcare landscape. This significant contract win is expected to lay a foundation for future growth, despite the company's cautious outlook for 2026 amid rising medical costs and market decline.
The implications of this contract are substantial, as it not only provides a significant revenue stream but also reflects Molina's strategic shift towards focusing on dual-eligible Medicare members. Investors may view this as a positive development, potentially offsetting concerns from the recent earnings report.
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Analyst Views on MOH
Wall Street analysts forecast MOH stock price to rise
14 Analyst Rating
3 Buy
9 Hold
2 Sell
Hold
Current: 135.680
Low
155.00
Averages
180.85
High
250.00
Current: 135.680
Low
155.00
Averages
180.85
High
250.00
About MOH
Molina Healthcare, Inc. is a provider of managed healthcare services under the Medicaid and Medicare programs, and through the state insurance marketplaces. The Company operates through four segments: Medicaid, Medicare, Marketplace and Other. The Medicaid, Medicare, and Marketplace segments represent the government-funded or sponsored programs under which it offers managed healthcare services. Medicaid provides healthcare and long-term services and support to low-income Americans. Medicare is a federal program that provides eligible persons aged 65 and over, and some disabled persons, with a variety of hospital, medical insurance, and prescription drug benefits. The Marketplace insurance exchanges allow individuals and small groups to purchase federally subsidized health insurance. It arranges healthcare services for its members through contracts with a network of providers, including independent physicians and physician groups, hospitals, ancillary providers, and pharmacies.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
Molina Healthcare Reports Major Q4 Loss, Stock Plummets
- Severe Earnings Loss: Molina Healthcare reported an adjusted loss of $2.75 per share for Q4 2026, significantly missing Wall Street's expectation of a $0.34 profit, leading to a more than 30% drop in stock price in a single session, hitting a 52-week low of $121.06, indicating a severe deterioration in financial health.
- Technical Indicators Collapse: Following the earnings shock, Molina's Benzinga Edge momentum score plummeted from 14.04 to 5.72, reflecting extreme market pessimism about its future performance, with the stock down 24.16% year-to-date, showcasing a significant decline in investor confidence.
- Soaring Medical Costs: The loss was primarily attributed to $2.00 per share in unfavorable retroactive revenue adjustments in California and skyrocketing medical costs, with CEO Zubretsky characterizing 2026 as a “trough year” for margins, forecasting adjusted EPS to drop to at least $5.00, significantly lower than previous projections.
- Investor Confidence Shaken: Notable investor Michael Burry's hedging strategy faced a major setback, as his investment in Molina has seen a 27% loss despite his belief that the market's reaction is overly harsh, indicating a substantial erosion of market confidence in the company's future.
See More
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- Portfolio Adjustments: The fund completely exited its position in PagSeguro Digital in Q4, indicating a strategic portfolio adjustment likely based on market performance and future expectations.
- Top Holdings: As of December 31, Restaurant Brands International remains Baupost's largest holding, indicating sustained confidence in the restaurant sector, and it was also the top holding in Q3, showcasing stability.
- Market Performance Comparison: Amazon was the worst-performing stock among the Magnificent Seven in 2025, and Baupost's investment decision may be based on optimism regarding its cloud segment growth, which will test the effectiveness of Klarman's strategy against Buffett's reduction in exposure.
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- Market Environment Challenges: Amazon is over 22% off its recent high and entered a bear market last week, reflecting concerns about the tech sector's high valuations and its ability to deliver on lofty AI promises.
- Value Investor Dilemma: Klarman, a value investor, has faced challenges over the past decade, particularly in a low-interest-rate environment where growth stocks dominated the market, although many analysts remain bullish on Amazon, believing its higher spending is justified.
- Other Investment Moves: Baupost also took new stakes in Grupo Aeromexico and Molina Healthcare, both of which are down over 12% and 21% year-to-date, respectively, while reducing its allocation to Restaurant Brands International and Alphabet.
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- Tech Stock Recovery: Gen Digital and Roblox surged over 7% and 9%, respectively, after forecasting full-year adjusted EPS and bookings above consensus, indicating a robust recovery in the tech sector that may attract more investment.
- Consumer Confidence Boost: The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index unexpectedly rose to 57.3, a six-month high, surpassing expectations of 55.0, reflecting optimistic consumer sentiment about the economic outlook, which supports further market gains.
- Inflation Expectations Shift: While short-term inflation expectations fell, long-term expectations ticked up slightly, indicating market concerns regarding the Fed's monetary policy, which could influence future investment decisions and market volatility.
See More
U.S. Stocks Surge as Tech Earnings Boost Market Sentiment
- Tech Stock Rebound: The S&P 500 rose by 1.20% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average surged by 1.48%, reaching an all-time high, driven by better-than-expected tech earnings that boosted investor confidence in the sector's recovery.
- Bitcoin Recovery: Bitcoin rebounded over 7% from a 1.25-year low, lifting cryptocurrency-exposed stocks and alleviating concerns about liquidity in the crypto market, indicating renewed investor interest in digital assets.
- Amazon Investment Concerns: Amazon's announcement of a $200 billion investment in data centers, chips, and other equipment led to a more than 9% drop in its stock, raising doubts about the long-term returns of its AI investments and potentially impacting future investor confidence.
- Earnings Season Insights: With 79% of S&P 500 companies exceeding expectations and Q4 earnings projected to grow by 8.4%, this indicates strong corporate profitability, which may provide ongoing support for the market despite economic uncertainties.
See More
Molina Healthcare Reports Major Q4 Loss, Stock Plummets
- Severe Earnings Loss: Molina Healthcare reported an adjusted loss of $2.75 per share for Q4 2026, significantly missing Wall Street's expectation of a $0.34 profit, leading to a more than 30% drop in stock price in a single session, hitting a 52-week low of $121.06, indicating a severe deterioration in financial health.
- Technical Indicators Collapse: Following the earnings shock, Molina's Benzinga Edge momentum score plummeted from 14.04 to 5.72, reflecting extreme market pessimism about its future performance, with the stock down 24.16% year-to-date, showcasing a significant decline in investor confidence.
- Soaring Medical Costs: The loss was primarily attributed to $2.00 per share in unfavorable retroactive revenue adjustments in California and skyrocketing medical costs, with CEO Zubretsky characterizing 2026 as a “trough year” for margins, forecasting adjusted EPS to drop to at least $5.00, significantly lower than previous projections.
- Investor Confidence Shaken: Notable investor Michael Burry's hedging strategy faced a major setback, as his investment in Molina has seen a 27% loss despite his belief that the market's reaction is overly harsh, indicating a substantial erosion of market confidence in the company's future.
See More
Baupost Group's Investment Moves in Q4
- New Investment Position: Baupost Group established a new stake in Amazon during Q4, making it the fund's second-largest holding at 9.3% of assets, reflecting confidence in the e-commerce and cloud giant despite differing views from Buffett.
- Portfolio Adjustments: The fund completely exited its position in PagSeguro Digital in Q4, indicating a strategic portfolio adjustment likely based on market performance and future expectations.
- Top Holdings: As of December 31, Restaurant Brands International remains Baupost's largest holding, indicating sustained confidence in the restaurant sector, and it was also the top holding in Q3, showcasing stability.
- Market Performance Comparison: Amazon was the worst-performing stock among the Magnificent Seven in 2025, and Baupost's investment decision may be based on optimism regarding its cloud segment growth, which will test the effectiveness of Klarman's strategy against Buffett's reduction in exposure.
See More
Baupost Group Increases Stake in Amazon Amid Tech Stock Struggles
- New Investment Position: Baupost Group established a new position in Amazon worth $489.7 million in Q4, making it the firm's second-largest holding, despite the stock's 13% decline year-to-date amid tech sector struggles.
- Market Environment Challenges: Amazon is over 22% off its recent high and entered a bear market last week, reflecting concerns about the tech sector's high valuations and its ability to deliver on lofty AI promises.
- Value Investor Dilemma: Klarman, a value investor, has faced challenges over the past decade, particularly in a low-interest-rate environment where growth stocks dominated the market, although many analysts remain bullish on Amazon, believing its higher spending is justified.
- Other Investment Moves: Baupost also took new stakes in Grupo Aeromexico and Molina Healthcare, both of which are down over 12% and 21% year-to-date, respectively, while reducing its allocation to Restaurant Brands International and Alphabet.
See More
US Stocks Surge, Dow Hits All-Time High
- Dow Hits Record High: The Dow Jones Industrial Average surged 2.47% to reach an all-time high, reflecting market optimism about economic recovery, particularly amid strong rebounds in tech and chipmaker stocks.
- Consumer Confidence Rises: The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index unexpectedly increased to 57.3, surpassing expectations of 55.0, indicating enhanced consumer confidence that could drive future spending.
- Bitcoin Rebounds: Bitcoin surged over 11% from a 1.25-year low, lifting cryptocurrency-exposed stocks and signaling renewed investor interest and confidence in crypto assets.
- Strong Corporate Earnings: Over 79% of S&P 500 companies exceeded earnings expectations, with S&P earnings growth projected at 8.4% for Q4, providing robust support for the market and indicating ongoing improvement in corporate profitability.
See More
U.S. Stocks Surge as Tech Earnings Boost Market Sentiment
- Market Performance: The S&P 500 Index rose by 1.10%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased by 1.60%, reaching an all-time high, reflecting positive market sentiment driven by strong tech earnings results.
- Tech Stock Recovery: Gen Digital and Roblox surged over 7% and 9%, respectively, after forecasting full-year adjusted EPS and bookings above consensus, indicating a robust recovery in the tech sector that may attract more investment.
- Consumer Confidence Boost: The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index unexpectedly rose to 57.3, a six-month high, surpassing expectations of 55.0, reflecting optimistic consumer sentiment about the economic outlook, which supports further market gains.
- Inflation Expectations Shift: While short-term inflation expectations fell, long-term expectations ticked up slightly, indicating market concerns regarding the Fed's monetary policy, which could influence future investment decisions and market volatility.
See More
U.S. Stocks Surge as Tech Earnings Boost Market Sentiment
- Tech Stock Rebound: The S&P 500 rose by 1.20% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average surged by 1.48%, reaching an all-time high, driven by better-than-expected tech earnings that boosted investor confidence in the sector's recovery.
- Bitcoin Recovery: Bitcoin rebounded over 7% from a 1.25-year low, lifting cryptocurrency-exposed stocks and alleviating concerns about liquidity in the crypto market, indicating renewed investor interest in digital assets.
- Amazon Investment Concerns: Amazon's announcement of a $200 billion investment in data centers, chips, and other equipment led to a more than 9% drop in its stock, raising doubts about the long-term returns of its AI investments and potentially impacting future investor confidence.
- Earnings Season Insights: With 79% of S&P 500 companies exceeding expectations and Q4 earnings projected to grow by 8.4%, this indicates strong corporate profitability, which may provide ongoing support for the market despite economic uncertainties.
See More
