Stock Price & Analysis

Based on the provided data and recent market activity, here's a comprehensive analysis of MOH stock:

Technical Analysis

The stock is currently trading at $286.92 during regular market hours, showing a +1.10% gain. Key technical indicators suggest:

• RSI (14) at 46.48 indicates neutral momentum
• MACD showing bearish divergence with -5.29 (MACD) and -0.78 (MACD histogram)
• Stock is trading below both SMA-200 ($315.77) and SMA-250 ($329.43), indicating longer-term bearish trend
• Currently trading within Bollinger Bands (BBM: $293.88, BBU: $348.23, BBL: $239.53) with BBP at 0.41

Fundamental Analysis

Valuation metrics show:

• Forward P/E: 19.24 (improved from 24.39 in 2022)
• EV/EBITDA: 8.05 (decreased from 9.12 in 2022)
• P/S: 0.62 (slightly up from 0.60 in 2022)
• P/B: 4.97 (improved from 6.46 in 2022)

Recent Developments

According to recent analyst coverage, Barclays maintained a Hold rating with a price target of $339, suggesting potential upside from current levels. The company recently reported Q4 earnings that missed consensus estimates, with adjusted EPS of $5.05 versus expected $5.88.

Institutional Activity

Corporate insider sentiment is negative, with increased insider selling over the past quarter. Most recently, Director Richard Schapiro sold 136 shares in November 2024.

Recommendation

HOLD - While MOH shows some attractive valuation metrics compared to historical levels, several factors suggest caution:

1. Technical indicators show bearish momentum
2. Trading below key moving averages
3. Mixed analyst sentiment
4. Negative insider trading activity

Price Targets:

• Support: $265.81 (Fibonacci S1)
• Resistance: $294.98 (Fibonacci R1)

Based on the provided data and recent market analysis, here is the price prediction for MOH stock in 2025:

Technical Analysis

The stock is currently trading at $287.23, showing a bearish trend with RSI at 40.36 indicating oversold conditions. The 50-day SMA ($294.39) is below the 200-day SMA ($315.78), forming a death cross pattern that suggests continued downward pressure.

Fundamental Drivers

• Revenue Growth: Expected to reach $42 billion in 2025, representing 9% growth from 2024
• EPS Projection: Management guided adjusted EPS of at least $24.50 for 2025, representing 8% growth
• Key Growth Catalysts:
  • ConnectiCare acquisition expected to add $1.2 billion in revenue
  • New contract wins in Georgia's Medicaid program
  • Dual-eligible integrated products expansion

Analyst Price Targets

The consensus among 14 analysts covering MOH:

• Average Target: $354.29 (23.34% upside)
• High Target: $439.00
• Low Target: $297.00
• Recent Actions: Multiple analysts lowered price targets in February 2025:
  • Cantor Fitzgerald: $406 to $356
  • Deutsche Bank: $391 to $369
  • Barclays: $372 to $339

2025 Price Prediction

Based on technical analysis, fundamental outlook and analyst consensus:

• Base Case: $350-360 range by end of 2025

  • Driven by successful execution of growth initiatives
  • Assumes normalized medical cost ratios
  • Represents ~22% upside from current levels

• Bull Case: $380-400 range

  • Requires better-than-expected synergies from acquisitions
  • Medical cost ratios returning to target range
  • Represents ~35-40% upside potential

• Bear Case: $290-310 range

  • Risk of continued elevated medical costs
  • Integration challenges with acquisitions
  • Represents flat to 8% upside

The most likely scenario points to the base case of $350-360 by end of 2025, supported by:

1. Strong revenue growth visibility from recent contract wins
2. Management's track record of successful M&A integration
3. Current valuation at 14x P/E provides margin of safety

The S1 support level for MOH Stock is $267.5 ,The R1 resistant level for MOH Stock is $301.99.

As of the end of day on 2025-02-27, the price of MOH Stock was $295.99.

The target price for MOH Stock according to analyst rating is 332.00, with the highest price target at 369.00 and the lowest at 295.00. Analysts have a Moderate Buy rating on MOH Stock overall.

The market cap of MOH is $16.3B.

Based on the provided data and recent market developments, here's a comprehensive analysis of MOH's valuation:

Technical Analysis

The stock is currently trading at $287.34, showing signs of consolidation after a recent decline. RSI at 46.48 indicates neutral momentum, while the stock trades below both its 200-day ($315.77) and 60-day ($295.41) moving averages, suggesting bearish technical pressure.

Valuation Metrics

Current valuation metrics indicate MOH is reasonably valued:

• P/E ratio: 19.24x (2023) vs industry average
• EV/EBITDA: 8.05x (2023)
• P/B: 4.97x (2023)

Recent Performance & Growth

• Revenue grew 6.6% YoY to $34.07B in 2023
• Net income increased 37.8% to $1.09B
• Gross margin improved to 15.36% from 14.46%

Analyst Sentiment

Recent analyst actions suggest mixed sentiment:

• Cantor Fitzgerald lowered PT to $356 from $406 but maintains Overweight rating
• Barclays maintains Hold rating with $339 PT
• Consensus PT of $347.71 implies ~21% upside potential

Business Segments

2023 Revenue Distribution:

• Medicaid: 81.32%
• Medicare: 12.41%
• Marketplace: 6.05%
• Other: 0.22%

Conclusion: MOH appears fairly valued at current levels considering:

1. Strong revenue growth projections of 9% to $42B in 2025
2. Solid earnings growth with 2025 EPS guidance of $24.50
3. Recent contract wins and acquisitions supporting long-term growth
4. Trading below analyst consensus price targets

However, elevated medical cost trends and rate adequacy concerns present near-term headwinds.

Molina Healthcare, Inc. is a provider of managed healthcare services under the medicaid and medicare programs, and through the state insurance marketplaces. The Company operates through four segments: Medicaid, Medicare, Marketplace and Other. The Medicaid, Medicare, and Marketplace segments represent the government-funded or sponsored programs under which it offers managed healthcare services. Medicaid provides healthcare and long-term services and support to low-income Americans. Medicare is a federal program that provides eligible persons aged 65 and over, and some disabled persons, with a variety of hospital, medical insurance, and prescription drug benefits. The Marketplace insurance exchanges allow individuals and small groups to purchase federally subsidized health insurance. It arranges healthcare services for its members through contracts with a network of providers, including independent physicians and physician groups, hospitals, ancillary providers, and pharmacies.

Based on the provided data and recent analyst reports, here's a price prediction for MOH stock by 2030:

Molina Healthcare (MOH) is projected to reach $450-475 by 2030, driven by its strong revenue growth trajectory and contract wins. The company expects to achieve $52 billion in premium revenue by 2027, with management demonstrating consistent execution on growth initiatives. Recent analyst coverage from Cantor Fitzgerald and Barclays suggests a near-term price target range of $339-356, providing a solid foundation for longer-term appreciation.

The stock's growth potential is supported by its expanding Medicaid and Medicare segments, though cost pressures remain a near-term challenge. With a projected 9% annual revenue growth and continued operational efficiency improvements, MOH is positioned to maintain its market leadership in managed healthcare services.

MOH has a total of 18000 employees.