Stock Price & Analysis

Based on the provided data and recent news, here's a comprehensive analysis of HUM stock:

Technical Analysis

The stock is showing significant weakness, having declined from around $520 in November 2023 to current levels around $360. Key technical indicators suggest:

• Currently trading below all major moving averages (5,10,20,60,200-day SMAs)
• RSI at 39.44 indicates neutral-bearish momentum
• MACD showing negative momentum with -5.39 signal line

Fundamental Analysis

Recent financial performance shows:

• Revenue growth of 14.5% YoY to $106.4B in FY2023
• Net income declined to $2.49B in FY2023 from $2.81B in FY2022
• EPS decreased from $22.08 to $20.00

Recent Events & Market Sentiment

The stock has been under pressure due to several factors:

• Industry-wide challenges from rising medical costs
• Medicare Advantage pricing pressures
• Broader healthcare sector uncertainty, with HUM stock down 30.6% over past 52 weeks

Analyst Consensus

Current analyst ratings:

• 5 Strong Buy
• 1 Moderate Buy
• 17 Hold Mean price target: $284.20 (12.4% upside potential)

Recommendation

SELL - The combination of technical weakness, fundamental headwinds, and industry challenges suggests further downside risk. While the stock appears oversold at current levels, the lack of clear catalysts and ongoing Medicare Advantage concerns make it difficult to justify establishing new positions.

Key support levels to watch: $247.12 (Fibonacci S1) Key resistance levels: $276.75 (Fibonacci R1)

Based on the provided data and recent market developments, here's a comprehensive price prediction analysis for Humana (HUM) stock in 2025:

Current Market Position

• Current Price: $257 (Pre-market on Feb 24, 2025)
• YTD Performance: -33 basis points
• 52-week decline: -30.6%

Technical Analysis

• RSI-14: 39.44 (indicating oversold conditions)
• MACD: Bearish signal with MACD at -5.39 and signal line at -3.04
• Key Support Levels: $247.12 (Fibonacci S1), $237.96 (Fibonacci S2)
• Key Resistance Levels: $276.75 (Fibonacci R1), $285.91 (Fibonacci R2)

Fundamental Drivers

• Mixed Q4 2024 Results:
  • Revenue growth: +10.4% YoY to $29.2B
  • Operating loss increased to $543M
  • Better-than-expected adjusted loss per share

Analyst Consensus

• Mean Price Target: $284.20 (12.4% upside potential)
• Street-High Target: $337 (33.3% upside)
• Current Rating: "Moderate Buy" (5 Strong Buy, 1 Moderate Buy, 17 Hold)

2025 Price Prediction Based on technical indicators, fundamental factors, and analyst consensus:

Base Case ($280-290): 50% probability

• Driven by successful cost-cutting initiatives
• Stabilization in Medicare Advantage business
• Expected benefit ratio of 90.1-90.5%

Bullish Case ($300-337): 30% probability

• Successful implementation of AI initiatives
• Better-than-expected Medicare Advantage enrollment
• Positive impact from 4.3% payment rate increase for 2026

Bearish Case ($230-250): 20% probability

• Continued pressure from elevated healthcare costs
• Market share losses in Medicare Advantage
• Further margin compression

Most Likely Scenario: Base Case ($285) Key drivers:

• Strategic investments in technology and AI
• Expected moderation in cost trends
• Strong position in Medicare Advantage market

The S1 support level for HUM Stock is $250.93 ,The R1 resistant level for HUM Stock is $268.76.

As of the end of day on 2025-02-27, the price of HUM Stock was $260.95.

The target price for HUM Stock according to analyst rating is 286.47, with the highest price target at 337.00 and the lowest at 248.00. Analysts have a Hold rating on HUM Stock overall.

The market cap of HUM is $30.8B.

Based on the provided data and recent market events, here's a comprehensive analysis of HUM's valuation:

Current Market Position HUM is currently trading at $257 in pre-market [Realtime_price], showing significant underperformance with a -30.6% decline over the past 52 weeks.

Valuation Metrics

• P/E (TTM): 23.2x
• EV/EBITDA: 14.2x
• P/S: 0.7x
• P/B: 4.18x
• Dividend Yield: 0.62%

Recent Performance & Catalysts

• Q4 2024 Results:
  • Revenue: $29.19B (+13.5% YoY)
  • Adjusted EPS loss: -$2.16 (vs. $0.11 profit year ago)
  • Insurance segment's benefit ratio guidance for 2025: 90.1-90.5%

Market Sentiment The stock appears overvalued based on several factors:

1. Industry Headwinds: The healthcare sector faces unusual challenges, particularly with rising medical costs and regulatory scrutiny.

2. Operational Concerns:

• Higher operating expenses (+11% YoY)
• Increased operating loss of $543M vs $348M last year
• Lost approximately 30,000 D-SNP members due to redetermination

3. Analyst Consensus:

• 5 Strong Buy
• 1 Moderate Buy
• 17 Hold ratings
• Mean price target: $284.20 (10.6% upside from current price)

Conclusion HUM appears overvalued at current levels due to:

• Trading at elevated P/E multiple despite operational challenges
• Significant industry headwinds and rising costs
• Mixed analyst sentiment with majority maintaining "Hold" ratings
• Recent underperformance indicating market skepticism

Humana Inc. is a healthcare company. It operates through two segments: Insurance and CenterWell. The Insurance segment consists of Medicare benefits, marketed to individuals or directly through group Medicare accounts. It also includes its contract with the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) to administer the Limited Income Newly Eligible Transition (LI-NET), a prescription drug plan program and contracts with various states to provide Medicaid, dual eligible demonstration, and Long-Term Support Services benefits. It also includes products consisting of employer group commercial fully insured medical and specialty health insurance benefits. The CenterWell segment includes pharmacy solutions, primary care, and home solutions operations. It also includes its strategic partnerships with Welsh, Carson, Anderson & Stowe (WCAS) to develop and operate senior-focused, payor-agnostic, primary care centers, as well as a minority ownership interest in Gentiva Hospice operations.

Based on recent market data and analyst projections, Humana (HUM) stock is projected to reach $450-500 by 2030, driven by the expected 3.7% CAGR growth in the US health insurance market to $639 billion by 2033. The company's strategic investments in AI technology and Medicare Advantage offerings, combined with favorable government payment rate increases of 4.3% (over $21 billion) for 2026, position it well for long-term growth. Despite current headwinds shown in Q4 2024 results, Humana's focus on cost reduction and efficiency improvements through technological integration suggests strong potential for margin expansion over the next 5 years.

HUM has a total of 67600 employees.