Texas Roadhouse Misses Q4 Estimates Amid High Beef Prices
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: Feb 20 2026
0mins
Should l Buy TXRH?
Source: CNBC
- Revenue and Profit Decline: Texas Roadhouse's Q4 revenue increased by 3.1% year-over-year to $1.48 billion, falling short of Wall Street's $1.496 billion estimate, indicating pressure on profits from high beef prices.
- Same-Store Sales Slowdown: Although comparable sales surged to 8.2% in the first three weeks, the overall quarterly growth dropped to 4.2%, missing analyst expectations of 5.2%, reflecting weakened consumer demand and seasonal impacts.
- Increased Shareholder Returns: The company repurchased $50 million worth of stock in Q4 and raised its quarterly dividend by 10% to $0.75 per share, demonstrating a commitment to shareholders despite cost pressures.
- Stable Future Outlook: Management maintained a commodity inflation forecast of around 7% for 2026, despite concerns over persistent high beef prices, while planning to open 35 new restaurants in the coming year, indicating a steadfast expansion strategy.
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Analyst Views on TXRH
Wall Street analysts forecast TXRH stock price to rise
17 Analyst Rating
7 Buy
10 Hold
0 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 165.080
Low
155.00
Averages
190.04
High
228.00
Current: 165.080
Low
155.00
Averages
190.04
High
228.00
About TXRH
Texas Roadhouse, Inc. is a restaurant company operating predominantly in the casual dining segment. The Company maintains three restaurant concepts operating as Texas Roadhouse, Bubba’s 33, and Jaggers. Texas Roadhouse is a full-service, casual dining restaurant concept offering an assortment of specially seasoned and aged steaks hand-cut daily on the premises and cooked to order over open grills. Bubba’s 33 is a full-service, casual dining restaurant concept featuring scratch-made food for all with a little rock 'n' roll, ice-cold beer, and signature cocktails. Its menu features burgers, pizza, wings, sandwiches and others. Its Jaggers is a fast-casual restaurant concept offering burgers, hand-breaded chicken sandwiches and chicken tenders, made-to-order fresh salads, and hand-spun milkshakes. Jaggers offer drive-thru, carry-out, and dine-in service options. It operates approximately 780 restaurants system-wide in 49 states, one United States territory, and 10 foreign countries.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
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- Price Volatility Impact: On Monday, TXRH shares traded as low as $164.71, contrasting with the current $171.54 share price and an annualized dividend of $3 (yielding 1.75%), attracting dividend investors seeking higher yields.
- Importance of Dividend History: While dividends are not always predictable, analyzing TXRH's dividend history can assist investors in assessing the likelihood of the recent dividend's continuation, thereby influencing investment decisions.
- Market Sentiment Shift: TXRH's RSI is significantly lower than the average RSI of 40.7 for covered dividend stocks, suggesting a potential shift in market sentiment, and investors should closely monitor future buying opportunities.
See More
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- Texas Roadhouse Performance: Texas Roadhouse (TXRH), with a market cap of $11.31 billion, has averaged 6.7% same-store sales growth over the past two years, reflecting strong customer demand for its Southern-style cuisine, and boasts an industry-leading 21% return on capital, showcasing management's effective investment strategy.
- Market Outlook: While Northern Trust faces challenges, the strong performance and expansion strategies of Domino's and Texas Roadhouse indicate that mid-cap stocks still hold appeal, prompting investors to monitor these companies for potential growth in the market.
See More
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- Increased Customer Traffic: Same-store sales grew by 16.3% in fiscal 2025 and 8.6% in Q2 2026, indicating that Chili's pricing strategy and the 3 For Me menu effectively attracted value-seeking consumers, enhancing its competitive position in the casual dining sector.
- Ongoing Restaurant Refresh: Brinker refreshes about 10% of its restaurants annually, improving kitchens and dining areas, with plans to start increasing Chili's net store count in fiscal 2027, which is expected to further drive future profitability growth.
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See More
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