Stock Price & Analysis

Based on the recent data and analysis, here's a concise assessment of SBUX stock:

Recent Performance

• Stock has surged 21% YTD in 2025
• Currently trading near 52-week highs after recent earnings
• Q1 FY2025 showed concerning metrics with global comparable sales down 4% and net income declining 24% YoY to $780.8M

Key Challenges

• Record high Arabica coffee bean prices (above $4/pound) putting pressure on margins
• Fourth consecutive quarter of same-store sales decline
• China market continues to struggle with 6% decline in comparable sales

Positive Factors

• New CEO Brian Niccol's turnaround strategy showing early promise
• Implementing operational improvements including:
  • 30% reduction in menu items
  • Better handling of peak hours
  • Improved employee experience initiatives

Valuation Concerns

• Trading at P/E ratio of 35.3x
• Forward P/E of 32.8x suggests premium valuation
• Analysts have revised 2025 EPS estimates downward to $3.05

Recommendation: SELL

The current stock price appears to have priced in much of the optimism around the turnaround story while underlying fundamentals remain challenged. With record high coffee costs, ongoing operational challenges, and rich valuation multiples, the risk-reward ratio doesn't justify buying at current levels.

Based on the provided data and analysis, here's a concise prediction for Starbucks (SBUX) stock price in 2025:

Current Market Analysis: According to recent analyst reports, SBUX is expected to face significant headwinds in 2025. The stock has already gained over 20% year-to-date in 2025, but fundamental challenges persist.

Key Price Drivers:

• Declining same-store sales for four consecutive quarters
• Record high coffee bean prices above $4 per pound impacting margins
• New CEO Brian Niccol's turnaround strategy implementation
• Competitive pressure from emerging players like Mixue in global markets

Price Target Scenarios:

• Analyst consensus price target: $105.56
• Street-high target: $120 (10.4% upside potential)
• BMO Capital Markets target: $115

Final Price Prediction: Based on current analyst estimates and market conditions, SBUX is expected to trade around $100 by end of 2025, representing a potential downside from current levels due to margin pressures from record coffee prices and ongoing same-store sales challenges.

The S1 support level for SBUX Stock is $106.91 ,The R1 resistant level for SBUX Stock is $116.5.

As of the end of day on 2025-03-06, the price of SBUX Stock was $105.52.

The target price for SBUX Stock according to analyst rating is 110.70, with the highest price target at 125.00 and the lowest at 76.00. Analysts have a Moderate Buy rating on SBUX Stock overall.

The market cap of SBUX is $119.8B.

Based on the provided data, here's a concise analysis of SBUX's valuation:

SBUX appears overvalued based on several key factors:

1. The stock trades at a P/E ratio of 32.9x for FY2025 projections, which is significantly above industry averages and indicates premium pricing despite declining performance.

2. Same-store sales have declined for four consecutive quarters, with Q1 2025 showing a concerning 4% drop driven by a 6% decline in store traffic.

3. Operating margins compressed by 390 basis points to 11.9% in Q1 2025, well below the ten-year average of 15.1%, indicating deteriorating profitability.

4. Rising coffee bean prices hitting all-time highs above $4 per pound will likely pressure margins further, yet this risk isn't fully reflected in the current valuation.

5. While new CEO Brian Niccol's turnaround plan shows early promise, the 21% YTD stock price increase has already priced in much of the potential recovery benefits.

Starbucks Corporation is a coffee company engaged in sourcing and roasting arabica coffee. The Company has more than 38,000 stores worldwide and is the roaster and retailer of specialty coffee in the world. It operates through three segments: North America, which is inclusive of the United States and Canada; International, which is inclusive of China, Japan, Asia Pacific, Europe, Middle East and Africa, Latin America, and Caribbean; and Channel Development. Its North America and International segments include both Company-operated and licensed stores. Its Channel Development segment includes roasted whole bean and ground coffees, Starbucks and Teavana-branded single-serve products, a variety of ready-to-drink beverages, such as Frappuccino and Starbucks Doubleshot, foodservice products and other branded products sold worldwide outside of Company-operated and licensed stores. It also sells goods and services under various brands, including Teavana, Ethos, Starbucks Reserve and Princi.

Based on the provided data and analysis, here is a projection for Starbucks (SBUX) stock price in 2030:

Starbucks stock is projected to reach $145-155 by 2030, driven by the company's turnaround strategy under CEO Brian Niccol and expected recovery in global markets. The forecast factors in current challenges including rising coffee bean prices hitting all-time highs and ongoing difficulties in the Chinese market, but assumes successful execution of the company's "Back to Starbucks" initiative focused on loyalty program growth and premium positioning.

The projection considers:

• Current valuation metrics showing SBUX trading at 32.9x forward P/E, below its 10-year average of 34.8x
• Analyst expectations of EPS reaching $3.82 by 2026
• Growing competition from emerging players like Mixue in key markets
• Ongoing margin pressure from rising commodity costs and labor expenses

The stock price target assumes Starbucks can overcome near-term headwinds through strategic initiatives including menu optimization, pricing power, and international expansion, while maintaining its premium brand positioning globally.

SBUX has a total of 381000 employees.