Stock Price & Analysis

Analysis and Insights

Valuation and Growth Potential:

Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) has shown strong growth potential, with a 77% rating using the P/B Growth Investor model by Partha Mohanram, indicating favorable fundamentals and valuation for growth. The stock is considered a large-cap growth stock in the Restaurants industry.

Analyst Sentiment:

Recent analyst upgrades and price target adjustments suggest optimism about CMG's future performance. Morgan Stanley upgraded CMG to Overweight with a $70 price target, citing it as a "quality large cap growth compounder". Other firms like Loop Capital and Stifel have also raised their price targets, reflecting confidence in the stock's potential.

Recent Insider Activity:

A director recently purchased 9,400 shares at $53.00, signaling insider confidence in the company's prospects. This could indicate that management believes the stock is undervalued at current levels.

Technical Analysis:

The stock price has been under pressure recently but is showing signs of stabilization. The current price of $49.11 is below many analyst price targets, suggesting potential upside.

Conclusion:

Given the positive analyst sentiment, insider buying, and growth potential, CMG stock is a buy for long-term growth investors. However, short-term volatility and market conditions should be closely monitored.

The price prediction for CMG stock in 2025 is $65. This forecast is based on the company's strong same-store sales growth, expansion plans, and pricing power, which are expected to drive continued growth. However, the high P/E ratio and potential market slowdowns may temper upside potential.

The S1 support level for CMG Stock is $48.35 ,The R1 resistant level for CMG Stock is $51.81.

As of the end of day on 2025-04-02, the price of CMG Stock was $50.05.

The target price for CMG Stock according to analyst rating is 66.65, with the highest price target at 75.00 and the lowest at 58.00. Analysts have a Strong Buy rating on CMG Stock overall.

The market cap of CMG is $70.5B.

Analysis and Insights

Chipotle (CMG) appears overvalued based on its current valuation metrics and operational challenges.

1. Valuation Metrics: CMG's P/E ratio of ~53.5 and EV/EBITDA of ~34.6 are above industry averages, suggesting a premium price for its growth prospects.

2. Slowing Growth: Same-store sales growth has decelerated to 5.4% from 8.4% year-over-year, raising concerns about future growth sustainability.

3. Operational Headwinds: Recent portion size adjustments and cost increases could pressure margins, with management expecting cost of sales to rise to "just below 31%."

4. Analyst Sentiment: While some analysts have upgraded the stock with price targets of $65-$70, others maintain a cautious stance, reflecting mixed sentiment.

5. Investigation Risks: An ongoing investigation into the company's portion size practices and cost disclosures adds uncertainty.

Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. is a restaurant company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, owns and operates Chipotle Mexican Grill restaurants, which feature a menu of burritos, burrito bowls (a burrito without the tortilla), quesadillas, tacos, and salads. The Company operates about 3,437 restaurants, including 3,371 Chipotle restaurants within the United States, and 66 international Chipotle restaurants. The Company owns and operates all its restaurants in North America and Europe. It manages its operations based on eight regions. It has made digital ordering convenient with enhancements to the Chipotle app and Website, such as customization, contactless delivery, and group ordering. Its application also includes order readiness messaging, wrong location detection and reminders to scan for points. The Company’s subsidiaries include Chipotle Mexican Grill Canada Corp., Chipotle Mexican Grill France SAS, and Chipotle Mexican Grill of Berwyn Heights, LLC, among others.

Price Prediction for CMG Stock by 2030

1. Bullish Scenario: CMG stock could reach $300 by 2030, driven by continued expansion, strong same-store sales growth, and pricing power.
2. Moderate Scenario: CMG stock could reach $250 by 2030, reflecting steady growth but tempered by valuation concerns and market competition.

Reasons:

• Strong Financials: Chipotle has consistently delivered high same-store sales growth and strong operating margins, with a proven ability to raise prices without losing customers.
• Expansion Plans: The company aims to nearly double its North American store count to 7,000, providing a long-term growth catalyst.
• Valuation Risks: While the stock's high P/E ratio (52-53) reflects market optimism, it leaves little room for disappointment.

CMG has a total of 116068 employees.