CMG

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Overview
Forecast
Valuation

Line

Candle

YTD

High

51.270

Open

51.270

VWAP

49.83

Vol

16.06M

Mkt Cap

66.99B

Low

49.410

Amount

800.43M

EV/EBITDA(TTM)

29.26

Total Shares

1.37B

67.91B

EV/OCF(TTM)

32.45

P/S(TTM)

6.14

Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. is a restaurant company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, owns and operates Chipotle Mexican Grill restaurants, which feature a menu of burritos, burrito bowls (a burrito without the tortilla), quesadillas, tacos, and salads. The Company operates about 3,437 restaurants, including 3,371 Chipotle restaurants within the United States, and 66 international Chipotle restaurants. The Company owns and operates all its restaurants in North America and Europe. It manages its operations based on eight regions. It has made digital ordering convenient with enhancements to the Chipotle app and Website, such as customization, contactless delivery, and group ordering. Its application also includes order readiness messaging, wrong location detection and reminders to scan for points. The Company’s subsidiaries include Chipotle Mexican Grill Canada Corp., Chipotle Mexican Grill France SAS, and Chipotle Mexican Grill of Berwyn Heights, LLC, among others.

Market Estimates

Earnings Estimates

Revenue

YoY Chg

EPS

YoYChg

FY2025Q2

FY2025Q3

FY2025Q4

3.12B

+4.93%

0.328

-3.49%

3.10B

+10.88%

0.298

+10.38%

3.17B

+11.43%

0.296

+18.2%

Estimates Revision

The market is revising Downward the revenue expectations for Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (CMG) for FY2025, with the revenue forecasts being adjusted by -3.14% over the past three months. During the same period, the stock price has changed by -13.98%.

Revenue Estimates for FY2025

Revise Downward

-3.14%

In Past 3 Month

EPS Estimates for FY2025

Revise Downward

-6.13%

In Past 3 Month

Stock Price

Go Down

-13.98%

In Past 3 Month

30 Analyst Rating

19.03% Upside

Wall Street analysts forecast CMG stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for CMG is 59.18 USD with a low forecast of 48.00 USD and a high forecast of 73.00 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

22 Buy

8 Hold

0 Sell

Moderate Buy

19.03% Upside

Current: 49.720

Low

48.00

Averages

59.18

High

73.00

19.03% Upside

Current: 49.720

Low

48.00

Averages

59.18

High

73.00

Guggenheim

Gregory Francfort

Hold

Maintains

$48 → $47

2025-04-25

Reason

Guggenheim

Gregory Francfort

Price Target

$48 → $47

2025-04-25

Maintains

Hold

Reason

Guggenheim lowered the firm's price target on Chipotle to $48 from $56 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. Noting that underlying traffic trends appear to have decelerated throughout the quarter and into the start of Q2, the firm is trimming its EPS and price target for Chipotle ahead of earnings tomorrow evening and thinks the company will likely cut same-store sales growth guidance to flat to positive low-single digits for the year, the analyst tells investors in a preview.

Loop Capital

Alton Stump

Strong Buy

Maintains

$65 → $63

2025-04-24

Reason

Loop Capital

Alton Stump

Price Target

$65 → $63

2025-04-24

Maintains

Strong Buy

Reason

TD Securities

Andrew Charles

Strong Buy

Maintains

$60 → $57

2025-04-24

Reason

TD Securities

Andrew Charles

Price Target

$60 → $57

2025-04-24

Maintains

Strong Buy

Reason

TD Cowen lowered the firm's price target on Chipotle to $57 from $60 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The firm said they appreciate newly introduced traffic driving efforts and management embedding April's sustained macro deterioration in 2025 sales guidance. In Cowen's view Chipotle shares are well positioned once the restaurant macro recovers.

Stephens & Co.

Jim Salera

Hold

Maintains

$49 → $54

2025-04-24

Reason

Stephens & Co.

Jim Salera

Price Target

$49 → $54

2025-04-24

Maintains

Hold

Reason

Stephens lowered the firm's price target on Chipotle to $49 from $54 and keeps an Equal Weight rating on the shares after the company reported mixed Q1 results that included a modest miss on same-store sales and unit development along with better-than-expected restaurant-level margins and adjusted EPS. Chipotle's lowered FY25 same-store sales guidance given the current macro backdrop translates to an expectation for negative comps in Q2 with improvement expected in the back-half of the year, the analyst noted.

Baird

David Tarantino

Buy

Maintains

$62 → $56

2025-04-24

Reason

Baird

David Tarantino

Price Target

$62 → $56

2025-04-24

Maintains

Buy

Reason

Baird lowered the firm's price target on Chipotle to $56 from $62 and keeps an Outperform rating on the shares. The firm updated its model following Q1 results and although it was a tough quarter, they are expecting a better performance in the second half of 2025.

Barclays

Jeffrey Bernstein

Hold

Maintains

$56 → $52

2025-04-24

Reason

Barclays

Jeffrey Bernstein

Price Target

$56 → $52

2025-04-24

Maintains

Hold

Reason

Barclays lowered the firm's price target on Chipotle to $56 from $60 and keeps an Equal Weight rating on the shares as part of a Q1 preview for the restaurant group. Comps were challenged by weather to start Q1, before a partial March rebound, the analyst tells investors in a research note. However, the firm says the lack of a full recovery is proof of an underlying easing in consumer spending. While most restaurants are insulated from tariffs from a supply chain impact, "not so much for the demand decline to follow," the analyst tells investors in a research note.

See All Ratings

Valuation Metrics

The current forward P/E ratio for Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc (CMG.N) is 39.73, compared to its 5-year average forward P/E of 49.86. For a more detailed relative valuation and DCF analysis to assess Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc 's fair value, click here.

Forward PE

The forward P/E ratio is a valuation metric that divides a company's current stock price by its estimated future earnings per share over the next 12 months.

Fair

5Y Average PE

49.86

Current PE

39.73

Overvalued PE

61.92

Undervalued PE

37.80

Forward EV/EBITDA

The forward EV/EBITDA ratio is a valuation metric that divides a company's enterprise value (EV) by its estimated future earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) over the next 12 months.

Fair

5Y Average EV/EBITDA

32.17

Current EV/EBITDA

28.42

Overvalued EV/EBITDA

37.88

Undervalued EV/EBITDA

26.46

Forward PS

The forward P/S ratio is a valuation metric that divides a company's current stock price by its estimated future sales (or revenue) per share over the next 12 months.

Fair

5Y Average PS

5.45

Current PS

5.48

Overvalued PS

6.31

Undervalued PS

4.59