CMG Valuation

Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc

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31.690

-0.84(-2.582%)1D

CMG Relative Valuation

CMG's fair value is calculated using relative valuation, based on historical P/E and P/S ranges and their premiums/discounts relative to a competitor average, adjusted by weights. If the market price exceeds this fair value range, CMG is overvalued; if below, it's undervalued.

Historical Valuation

Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc (CMG) is now in the Undervalued zone, suggesting that its current forward PE ratio of 26.89 is considered Undervalued compared with the five-year average of 46.31. The fair price of Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc (CMG) is between 40.23 to 57.93 according to relative valuation methord. Compared to the current price of 31.69 USD , Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc is Undervalued By 21.23%.

Relative Value

Fair Zone

40.23-57.93

Current Price：31.69

21.23%

Undervalued

26.89

Trailing

Forward

18.75

EV/EBITDA

Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. (CMG) has a current EV/EBITDA of 18.75. The 5-year average EV/EBITDA is 30.72. The thresholds are as follows: Strongly Undervalued below 20.54, Undervalued between 20.54 and 25.63, Fairly Valued between 35.80 and 25.63, Overvalued between 35.80 and 40.89, and Strongly Overvalued above 40.89. The current Forward EV/EBITDA of 18.75 falls within the Strongly Undervalued range.

22.38

EV/EBIT

Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. (CMG) has a current EV/EBIT of 22.38. The 5-year average EV/EBIT is 37.25. The thresholds are as follows: Strongly Undervalued below 23.22, Undervalued between 23.22 and 30.24, Fairly Valued between 44.27 and 30.24, Overvalued between 44.27 and 51.28, and Strongly Overvalued above 51.28. The current Forward EV/EBIT of 22.38 falls within the Strongly Undervalued range.

31.69

Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. (CMG) has a current PS of 31.69. The 5-year average PS is 5.55. The thresholds are as follows: Strongly Undervalued below 1.62, Undervalued between 1.62 and 3.58, Fairly Valued between 7.51 and 3.58, Overvalued between 7.51 and 9.48, and Strongly Overvalued above 9.48. The current Forward PS of 31.69 falls within the Strongly Overvalued range.

20.35

P/OCF

Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. (CMG) has a current P/OCF of 20.35. The 5-year average P/OCF is 34.79. The thresholds are as follows: Strongly Undervalued below 22.43, Undervalued between 22.43 and 28.61, Fairly Valued between 40.97 and 28.61, Overvalued between 40.97 and 47.15, and Strongly Overvalued above 47.15. The current Forward P/OCF of 20.35 falls within the Strongly Undervalued range.

31.91

P/FCF

Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. (CMG) has a current P/FCF of 31.91. The 5-year average P/FCF is 54.47. The thresholds are as follows: Strongly Undervalued below 32.26, Undervalued between 32.26 and 43.37, Fairly Valued between 65.57 and 43.37, Overvalued between 65.57 and 76.68, and Strongly Overvalued above 76.68. The current Forward P/FCF of 31.91 falls within the Strongly Undervalued range.

Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc (CMG) has a current Price-to-Book (P/B) ratio of 13.04. Compared to its 3-year average P/B ratio of 20.02 , the current P/B ratio is approximately -34.87% higher. Relative to its 5-year average P/B ratio of 20.04, the current P/B ratio is about -34.92% higher. Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc (CMG) has a Forward Free Cash Flow (FCF) yield of approximately 3.75%. Compared to its 3-year average FCF yield of 68.00%, the current FCF yield is approximately -94.48% lower. Relative to its 5-year average FCF yield of 41.08% , the current FCF yield is about -90.86% lower.

13.04

P/B

Median3y

20.02

Median5y

20.04

3.75

FCF Yield

Median3y

68.00

Median5y

41.08

Competitors Valuation Multiple

The average P/S ratio for CMG's competitors is 142.91, providing a benchmark for relative valuation. Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc Corp (CMG) exhibits a P/S ratio of 31.69, which is -77.83% above the industry average. Given its robust revenue growth of 7.51%, this premium appears unsustainable.

P/S

P/E

EV/EBITDA

EV/EBIT

P/S

Revenue Growth

Market Cap

CMG.N

Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc

Restaurant Brands International Inc

Darden Restaurants Inc

Yum China Holdings Inc

Performance Decomposition

Market capitalization of CMG decreased by 48.49% over the past 1 year. The primary factor behind the change was an increase in Revenue Growth from 2.79B to 3.00B.

The secondary factor is the Margin Expansion, contributed -8.29%to the performance.

Overall, the performance of CMG in the past 1 year is driven by Revenue Growth. Which is more sustainable.

7.51%

2.79B → 3.00B

Revenue Growth

-8.29%

13.87 → 12.72

Margin Expansion

-47.71%

53.67 → 28.07

P/E Change

-48.49%