Should You Buy Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc (CMG) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.
Analysis Updated At
2026/01/28
CMG is not a good buy right now for a beginner, long-term investor who is unwilling to wait. The chart is still in a short-term downtrend (bearish MACD expansion, price below the pivot), and earnings are imminent (Feb 3), which can re-price the stock quickly. While long-term business quality and Wall Street targets remain broadly constructive, the current technical setup plus recent all-sell Congress activity makes the risk/reward unattractive for an “I want to buy now” decision. Better stance today: HOLD / wait for a clearer post-earnings trend or a technical reclaim above ~40.13–41.
Technical Analysis
Price/levels: CMG at 39.2 is below the pivot (40.126) and sitting right on key support S1 (39.167). A clean break below S1 raises risk of testing S2 (38.575). To turn the tape constructive, CMG needs to reclaim the pivot and hold above ~40.13, with upside resistance at R1 41.085 then R2 41.677.
Momentum: MACD histogram is -0.207 and negatively expanding, which signals bearish momentum is strengthening (short-term downtrend still in control).
RSI: RSI(6) ~39.3 is near “oversold-ish” territory but not a clear reversal signal by itself.
Moving averages: Converging moving averages suggests the stock is in a transition zone; combined with negative MACD, this favors caution until direction confirms.
Pattern-based forward look (provided): Similar-pattern stats imply mild near-term softness (-0.38% next day) but a positive skew over 1 week (+1.28%) and 1 month (+12.69%); this is supportive for long-term, but the immediate trend is still technically weak.
Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals
- [AI Stock Picker](module://ai_stock_pick): No signal on given stock today.
- [SwingMax](module://swingmax): No signal on given stock today.
Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends
Recent trend: Net-positive overall with many price target raises and mostly Buy/Overweight/Outperform stances (Piper, Wells Fargo, Raymond James, Citi, Truist, Telsey). Offsetting that, there were notable caution flags via BWG’s downgrade to Mixed and Gordon Haskett’s downgrade to Hold, both tied to transaction/traffic softness.
Wall Street pros: Strong brand, scale, unit growth potential, and expectation that comps may trough in Q4 with a better 1H26 setup.
Wall Street cons: Risk of continued traffic declines, softer transaction/ticket trends, and margin pressure (commodities/labor) making upside EBITDA revisions harder.
Wall Street analysts forecast CMG stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for CMG is 45.95 USD with a low forecast of 35 USD and a high forecast of 56 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
Wall Street analysts forecast CMG stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for CMG is 45.95 USD with a low forecast of 35 USD and a high forecast of 56 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
Current: 39.160
Current: 39.160
