Iran War Significantly Disrupts Global LNG Market
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: 4 days ago
0mins
Source: Fool
- Energy Supply Disruption: Iran's attacks on tankers in the Strait of Hormuz have effectively closed this critical energy market chokepoint, leading to temporary supply disruptions that could escalate into long-term pressures on global LNG supplies.
- Damage to Qatari LNG Facilities: Iran's strikes have damaged two LNG production facilities in Qatar, which produce a total of 12.8 million tons annually, and these facilities are expected to remain offline for three to five years, affecting 17% of Qatar's LNG supply and likely driving up global LNG prices.
- U.S. LNG Producers to Benefit: With Qatar's supply constraints, U.S. LNG producers like Cheniere Energy, with an annual capacity of 52 million tons, and Venture Global, projected to become the largest U.S. LNG producer at 29 million tons, are well-positioned to capitalize on the opportunity.
- Market Opportunities and Investment Potential: Energy midstream giant Energy Transfer may leverage the turmoil in the global LNG market; although it suspended its Lake Charles LNG project, renewed interest could arise as market dynamics shift in response to the ongoing conflict.
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Analyst Views on LNG
Wall Street analysts forecast LNG stock price to fall
11 Analyst Rating
11 Buy
0 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 296.910
Low
258.00
Averages
274.09
High
290.00
Current: 296.910
Low
258.00
Averages
274.09
High
290.00
About LNG
Cheniere Energy, Inc. is the producer and exporter of liquefied natural gas (LNG) in the United States. The Company provides clean and secure LNG to integrated energy companies, utilities, and energy trading companies worldwide. It operates two natural gas liquefaction and export facilities at Sabine Pass, Louisiana (Sabine Pass LNG Terminal) and near Corpus Christi, Texas (Corpus Christi LNG Terminal). Sabine Pass LNG Terminal, which has natural gas liquefaction facilities consisting of six operational trains, for a total production capacity of approximately 30 million tons per annum (mtpa) of LNG (the SPL Project). Corpus Christi LNG Terminal near Corpus Christi, Texas, consists of three trains for a total production capacity of approximately 15 mtpa of LNG, three LNG storage tanks and two marine berths. It also owns and operates a 94-mile natural gas supply pipeline that interconnects the Sabine Pass LNG Terminal with several large interstate and intrastate pipelines.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
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- Technical Analysis Tool: Comparing FMDE's latest share price to the 200-day moving average provides investors with valuable insights for technical analysis, aiding in the assessment of price trends and potential buy or sell opportunities.
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- Market Reaction Lag: ConocoPhillips CEO Ryan Lance noted that the market is not reflecting the scale of the supply disruption, with oil prices likely to remain high at $99.64 per barrel even after the conflict ends, as countries will need to restock depleted reserves.
- Geopolitical Risks Escalate: Kuwait Petroleum CEO Sheikh Nawaf al-Sabah stated that Iran's blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is not only an attack on Gulf nations but poses a threat to the global economy, potentially causing a domino effect throughout the supply chain.
- Fuel Shortages Spread: Shell CEO Wael Sawan highlighted that jet fuel and diesel prices have surged to $200 and $160 per barrel respectively, with the crisis expected to impact major Asian economies and reach Europe by April, prompting governments to stockpile and protect their supplies.
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- Oil Price Volatility: Brent crude futures have risen 36% since February 27, while Dubai crude prices have surged 76%, highlighting a significant disparity between paper prices and physical delivery prices, reflecting market concerns over future supply shortages.
- Strategic Reserve Release: The U.S. government plans to release 400 million barrels from its strategic oil reserves, the largest release on record, aimed at alleviating market pressure; however, analysts warn that the effectiveness of this measure will diminish by mid-April, potentially leading to soaring oil prices.
- Market Confidence Erosion: Despite a slight uptick in the S&P 500 amid optimism over Trump's delay of military action, the index fell 3.4% in subsequent days, indicating investor concerns about inflation and interest rate prospects, leading to a significant deterioration in market sentiment.
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- Price Fluctuation Analysis: FMDE's 52-week low is $26.9275 and high is $38.26, with the current trading price at $35.25, indicating cautious market sentiment as the stock fluctuates between these extremes.
- Technical Analysis Tool: Comparing FMDE's latest share price to the 200-day moving average provides investors with valuable insights for technical analysis, aiding in the assessment of price trends and potential buy or sell opportunities.
- ETF Trading Mechanism: Exchange-traded funds (ETFs) trade like stocks, where investors buy and sell 'units' that can be created or destroyed based on demand, impacting the underlying holdings of the ETF.
- Inflows and Outflows Monitoring: Weekly monitoring of changes in shares outstanding for ETFs helps identify those experiencing significant inflows or outflows, providing insights into market dynamics and potential impacts on individual stock components.
See More
Energy Executives Warn of Middle East War Impact
- Oil Supply Crisis: CEOs of major energy companies warned at S&P Global's CERAWeek that the Iran war has disrupted 8 million barrels of oil and 20% of the LNG market daily, potentially leading to fuel shortages in Asia and Europe, severely impacting the global economy.
- Market Reaction Lag: ConocoPhillips CEO Ryan Lance noted that the market is not reflecting the scale of the supply disruption, with oil prices likely to remain high at $99.64 per barrel even after the conflict ends, as countries will need to restock depleted reserves.
- Geopolitical Risks Escalate: Kuwait Petroleum CEO Sheikh Nawaf al-Sabah stated that Iran's blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is not only an attack on Gulf nations but poses a threat to the global economy, potentially causing a domino effect throughout the supply chain.
- Fuel Shortages Spread: Shell CEO Wael Sawan highlighted that jet fuel and diesel prices have surged to $200 and $160 per barrel respectively, with the crisis expected to impact major Asian economies and reach Europe by April, prompting governments to stockpile and protect their supplies.
See More
Impact of Iran War on U.S. Economy Intensifies
- Strait of Hormuz Closure Risk: Iran's attacks on civilian ships and energy infrastructure have led to a near standstill in the Strait of Hormuz, threatening about 20% of global oil supply, and if not reopened within the next three weeks, energy prices could surge, putting pressure on the global economy.
- Oil Price Volatility: Brent crude futures have risen 36% since February 27, while Dubai crude prices have surged 76%, highlighting a significant disparity between paper prices and physical delivery prices, reflecting market concerns over future supply shortages.
- Strategic Reserve Release: The U.S. government plans to release 400 million barrels from its strategic oil reserves, the largest release on record, aimed at alleviating market pressure; however, analysts warn that the effectiveness of this measure will diminish by mid-April, potentially leading to soaring oil prices.
- Market Confidence Erosion: Despite a slight uptick in the S&P 500 amid optimism over Trump's delay of military action, the index fell 3.4% in subsequent days, indicating investor concerns about inflation and interest rate prospects, leading to a significant deterioration in market sentiment.
See More
CNBC Investing Club March Meeting Overview
- Energy Stocks Surge: Following the outbreak of war in Iran, energy stocks, particularly fertilizer manufacturers, have shown strong performance, indicating robust market demand that could drive profitability for related companies.
- AWS Growth Acceleration: Amazon's cloud unit AWS is no longer lagging behind Microsoft Azure, thanks to its partnership with Anthropic, with expectations for next quarter's margins to exceed market forecasts, boosting investor confidence.
- Cybersecurity Challenges: CrowdStrike has been affected by turmoil in the software market, but the CEO highlighted the positive impact of AI on cyberattacks, indicating long-term growth potential in the security sector, despite high stock prices.
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See More
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- Stock Sale Announcement: Chenier Energy intends to sell 40,342 shares of its common stock on March 26.
- Market Value: The total market value of the shares being sold is approximately $11.47 million.
See More
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- Stock Sale Announcement: Sean Markowitz intends to sell 22,246 shares of Chenier Energy's common stock on March 26.
- Market Value: The total market value of the shares being sold is approximately $6.33 million.
See More
