Vicious Cycle Index Signals Economic Recession
Written by Emily J. Thompson, Senior Investment Analyst
Updated: 12 hours ago
0mins
Source: Fool
- Vicious Cycle Index Overview: Moody's Analytics' Vicious Cycle Index (VCI) has accurately predicted 100% of U.S. recessions over the past 80 years without a single false alarm, demonstrating its effectiveness and reliability in economic forecasting.
- Unemployment Rate Indicator: The VCI is based on the Sahm Rule, which requires the three-month average unemployment rate to exceed the 12-month low by 1%, enhancing its accuracy in capturing recessions, especially in the context of declining labor force participation.
- Current Economic Condition: Chief economist Mark Zandi of Moody's Analytics believes that the U.S. economy has already entered a recession, despite the National Bureau of Economic Research not yet confirming it, with the probability of recession rising to 48.6%, surpassing predictions from other organizations.
- Investment Strategy Recommendations: Investors should consider purchasing recession-proof stocks such as Walmart, AbbVie, and American States Water, which tend to perform well during economic downturns, while also maintaining cash reserves to capitalize on potential investment opportunities.
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Analyst Views on WMT
Wall Street analysts forecast WMT stock price to rise
26 Analyst Rating
25 Buy
1 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 124.570
Low
119.00
Averages
125.75
High
136.00
Current: 124.570
Low
119.00
Averages
125.75
High
136.00
About WMT
Walmart Inc. is a technology-powered omnichannel retailer. The Company is engaged in the operation of retail and wholesale stores and clubs, as well as eCommerce Websites and mobile applications, located throughout the United States (U.S.), Africa, Canada, Central America, Chile, China, India and Mexico. It operates in three reportable segments: Walmart U.S., Walmart International and Sam's Club U.S. The Walmart U.S. segment includes the Company's mass merchandising concept in the U.S., as well as eCommerce, which includes omni-channel initiatives and certain other business offerings such as advertising services. The Walmart International segment consists of the Company's operations outside of the U.S. through its subsidiaries, as well as eCommerce and omni-channel initiatives. The Sam's Club U.S. segment includes the warehouse membership clubs in the U.S., as well as samsclub.com and omni-channel initiatives.
About the author
Emily J. Thompson
Emily J. Thompson, a Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) with 12 years in investment research, graduated with honors from the Wharton School. Specializing in industrial and technology stocks, she provides in-depth analysis for Intellectia’s earnings and market brief reports.
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Vicious Cycle Index Signals Economic Recession
- Vicious Cycle Index Overview: Moody's Analytics' Vicious Cycle Index (VCI) has accurately predicted 100% of U.S. recessions over the past 80 years without a single false alarm, demonstrating its effectiveness and reliability in economic forecasting.
- Unemployment Rate Indicator: The VCI is based on the Sahm Rule, which requires the three-month average unemployment rate to exceed the 12-month low by 1%, enhancing its accuracy in capturing recessions, especially in the context of declining labor force participation.
- Current Economic Condition: Chief economist Mark Zandi of Moody's Analytics believes that the U.S. economy has already entered a recession, despite the National Bureau of Economic Research not yet confirming it, with the probability of recession rising to 48.6%, surpassing predictions from other organizations.
- Investment Strategy Recommendations: Investors should consider purchasing recession-proof stocks such as Walmart, AbbVie, and American States Water, which tend to perform well during economic downturns, while also maintaining cash reserves to capitalize on potential investment opportunities.
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Vicious Cycle Index Warns of U.S. Recession
- Recession Signal: The Vicious Cycle Index (VCI) has accurately predicted all U.S. recessions since 1945 and currently indicates that the U.S. economy is in the early stages of a recession, prompting investors to adjust their strategies based on this critical indicator.
- Unemployment Rate Changes: The VCI improves upon the Sahm Rule by adjusting unemployment data using a five-year moving average of labor force participation, signaling a recession when the average unemployment rate rises more than 1% over the previous 12 months, enhancing its accuracy.
- Investment Strategy Recommendations: With rising recession risks, investors are advised to increase cash positions and consider buying recession-resistant stocks such as Walmart, AbbVie, and American States Water, which are likely to maintain stable dividend payments during economic downturns.
- Declining Market Confidence: Consumer confidence hit a record low in April, and the labor force participation rate fell to 61.9%, indicating that more Americans are giving up on job searches; Moody's Analytics raised the probability of a recession in the next 12 months to 48.6%, surpassing other organizations' forecasts.
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- Nationwide Technician Support: Walmart's Upstream Facility Services deploys technicians across the country to ensure timely responses for facility maintenance at multiple locations, thereby enhancing operational efficiency and reducing downtime.
- Comprehensive Maintenance Model: The service combines urgent repairs, preventive maintenance, and predictive services, aiming to lower operational costs for customers by minimizing repeat issues and extending asset lifespan.
- Real-Time Visibility Management: Clients gain real-time insights into service status and performance trends through technology, which not only accelerates decision-making but also improves planning accuracy and execution consistency.
- Simplified Facility Management: Upstream Facility Services is designed for commercial clients managing complex facility operations, aiming to enhance operational stability by providing consistent service and controllable maintenance processes.
See More
Amazon's Transformation and Future Outlook
- Operational Shift: Under CEO Andy Jassy, Amazon has transitioned from unprofitable growth to a focus on profitability, restructuring its U.S. fulfillment network into eight self-sufficient hubs, which enhances efficiency and reduces costs, thereby increasing shareholder value.
- Layoffs for Efficiency: The company cut 14,000 corporate positions in October to reduce bureaucracy and improve operational efficiency, a move expected to further enhance profitability and market competitiveness.
- Technology-Driven Innovation: Amazon deployed its millionth robot in warehouses and plans to utilize the new AI model DeepFleet to improve delivery efficiency, projected to reduce travel times by 10%, which will help lower operational costs and enhance customer satisfaction.
- Financial Performance and Risks: Despite a 14% year-over-year revenue increase to $213.4 billion in Q4 and an 18% rise in operating income to $25 billion, Amazon's stock performance remains lackluster, with concerns over its projected $200 billion data center spending by 2026 potentially impacting future shareholder returns.
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S&P 500 Recovery and Defensive Stock Recommendations
- REIT Advantages: Realty Income, one of the largest REITs globally, focuses on essential retail with a 98.9% occupancy rate, ensuring stable long-term rental income that provides protection for investors during economic fluctuations.
- Walmart's Market Reach: With over 5,000 discount stores in the U.S. reaching 90% of the population, Walmart's e-commerce business grew 24% year-over-year in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2026, demonstrating its ability to sustain growth amid market turmoil.
- Coca-Cola's Stability: As the world's largest beverage company, Coca-Cola reported a 5% year-over-year sales increase in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2025 and has a 64-year history of raising dividends, showcasing its resilience in uncertain market conditions.
- Importance of Defensive Investments: In the current market environment, holding defensive stocks like Realty Income, Walmart, and Coca-Cola not only provides stable cash flow but also protects investment portfolios during economic downturns, ensuring long-term returns.
See More
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- Sustainable Sourcing Commitment: Walmart's membership in the U.S. Cotton Trust Protocol marks a significant advancement in its sustainable cotton sourcing efforts, expected to greatly enhance transparency and traceability within its supply chain.
- Data-Driven Transparency: As a member, Walmart will gain access to verifiable data from U.S. cotton growers covering six key sustainability metrics, including land use and soil health, thereby advancing its sustainability goals.
- Environmental Protection Goals: Walmart aims to help manage, protect, or restore at least 50 million acres of land and 1 million square miles of ocean by 2030, with its membership in the protocol further supporting these environmental ambitions.
- Expanded Industry Influence: Walmart's inclusion not only strengthens the impact of the U.S. Cotton Trust Protocol but also drives progress in sustainable sourcing practices across the retail industry, fostering broader industry transformation.
See More
Vicious Cycle Index Signals Economic Recession
- Vicious Cycle Index Overview: Moody's Analytics' Vicious Cycle Index (VCI) has accurately predicted 100% of U.S. recessions over the past 80 years without a single false alarm, demonstrating its effectiveness and reliability in economic forecasting.
- Unemployment Rate Indicator: The VCI is based on the Sahm Rule, which requires the three-month average unemployment rate to exceed the 12-month low by 1%, enhancing its accuracy in capturing recessions, especially in the context of declining labor force participation.
- Current Economic Condition: Chief economist Mark Zandi of Moody's Analytics believes that the U.S. economy has already entered a recession, despite the National Bureau of Economic Research not yet confirming it, with the probability of recession rising to 48.6%, surpassing predictions from other organizations.
- Investment Strategy Recommendations: Investors should consider purchasing recession-proof stocks such as Walmart, AbbVie, and American States Water, which tend to perform well during economic downturns, while also maintaining cash reserves to capitalize on potential investment opportunities.
See More
Vicious Cycle Index Warns of U.S. Recession
- Recession Signal: The Vicious Cycle Index (VCI) has accurately predicted all U.S. recessions since 1945 and currently indicates that the U.S. economy is in the early stages of a recession, prompting investors to adjust their strategies based on this critical indicator.
- Unemployment Rate Changes: The VCI improves upon the Sahm Rule by adjusting unemployment data using a five-year moving average of labor force participation, signaling a recession when the average unemployment rate rises more than 1% over the previous 12 months, enhancing its accuracy.
- Investment Strategy Recommendations: With rising recession risks, investors are advised to increase cash positions and consider buying recession-resistant stocks such as Walmart, AbbVie, and American States Water, which are likely to maintain stable dividend payments during economic downturns.
- Declining Market Confidence: Consumer confidence hit a record low in April, and the labor force participation rate fell to 61.9%, indicating that more Americans are giving up on job searches; Moody's Analytics raised the probability of a recession in the next 12 months to 48.6%, surpassing other organizations' forecasts.
See More
